These 5 games could define UCF football’s 2025 season. Which is most important?

• Scott Frost returns as UCF’s head coach after eight years, aiming to replicate his prior success, including an undefeated 2017 season.
• UCF aims to improve on its 4-8 record from last season in the challenging Big 12 Conference.

College football’s dog days lie ahead, with spring practices in the books and recruiting shifting to the primary focus for the next two months. But the regular season will arrive soon enough, and it’s a big one for the UCF Knights.

Scott Frost is back in the saddle after eight long years — five spent as Nebraska’s head coach, and another as a senior football analyst for the Los Angeles Rams after some time away from the sidelines. He achieved unparalleled success in his first UCF regime, guiding the program to its first undefeated season in 2017, capped by a Peach Bowl triumph over Gus Malzahn‘s Auburn Tigers and a national championship parade at Walt Disney World.

Frost overhauled the coaching staff — headlined by the hirings of quarterbacks coach McKenzie Milton, wide receivers coach Sean Beckton and defensive coordinator Alex Grinch — and reshaped the roster, in large part, through the NCAA transfer portal. Only two players that started last year’s season opener versus Utah remain on the Knights‘ squad, offensive tackle Paul Rubelt and defensive end Nyjalik Kelly.

So, how will the Knights fare? Arizona State proved emphatically to expect the unexpected in the Big 12. Picked to finish last among the league’s 16 teams in 2024, the Sun Devils instead won the conference title and gained automatic entry into the College Football Playoff.

The Big 12’s preseason poll will drop ahead of its media days in July, but it is safe to assume UCF will rank somewhere in the bottom half after posting a 4-8 record a season ago.

Frost tempered visions of undefeated grandeur at his introductory press conference, but the Knights could yet pull off a few shocks in the fall. Arranged in ascending order in terms of impact, here are five games that could determine the course of UCF’s 2025 football season.

5. North Carolina, Sept. 20

It’s arguably the juiciest matchup on the schedule, but the anticipated home date with North Carolina ultimately will not factor into the Knights’ longshot hopes of contending for the Big 12 championship. So that’s why it is not higher on the list.

Still, Bill Belichick — the six-time Super Bowl champion head coach — will lead the transformed Tar Heels into the Bounce House to close the non-conference slate. North Carolina is approaching three-dozen additions from the transfer portal, highlighted by quarterback Gio Lopez (South Alabama), linebacker Mikai Gbayor (Nebraska/Missouri), offensive tackle Will O’Steen (Jacksonville State) and cornerback Thaddeus Dixon (Washington).

UCF and North Carolina have never faced head-to-head in football. A previously scheduled game between the two schools — set for Sept. 15, 2018 in Chapel Hill — was canceled due to Hurricane Florence.

4. at Texas Tech, Nov. 15

On paper, UCF stands to be a significant preseason underdog against Texas Tech following its free-spending offseason. Few teams in the country invested more in the transfer market than the Red Raiders, backed by billionaire booster Cody Campbell — with conservative estimates soaring well over $10 million.

Texas Tech’s high-profile additions include USC running back Quinten Joyner, Miami (Ohio) wide receiver Reggie Virgil, Illinois State offensive lineman Hunter Zambrano, North Dakota State safety Cole Wisniewski, Stanford edge rusher David Bailey and — most significantly in terms of this matchup — UCF defensive tackle Lee Hunter.

Lubbock is already one of the tougher trips in the Big 12, let alone in a year when the Red Raiders have sky-high expectations. A founding member of the conference, Texas Tech has never won an outright championship since its inaugural season, 1996.

3. West Virginia, Oct. 18

Perhaps this is more a point of pride than anything else. UCF is 0-4 all-time against West Virginia, battered in each of the previous two seasons by Neal Brown’s ground-and-pound offense. Last November’s road loss in Morgantown sealed the end of an eight-year bowl streak and effectively marked the conclusion of Gus Malzahn’s tenure as head coach.

Brown’s gone, too — and the Mountaineers similarly celebrated a homecoming with the rehiring of Rich Rodriguez from Jacksonville State. Rodriguez guided West Virginia to a 60-26 record over seven seasons (2001-07), but he departed for Michigan and struggled to replicate his spread-offense success in the Big Ten.

Rodriguez made sweeping changes to the West Virginia roster since taking over in December. More than 50 players have left, and another 50-plus have joined according to 247Sports. Two notable holdovers, however, are quarterback Nicco Marchiol and running back Jahiem White, who has carried the ball 21 times for 139 yards and two touchdowns against the Knights.

2. Houston, Nov. 7

Can the Knights continue their improbable run of Space Game dominance when the Cougars hailing from Space City visit the opening week of November?

When adopting the Citronaut moniker, UCF is 8-0 all-time with an average margin of victory of 30.8 points. Not even the treacherous transition into the Big 12 has slowed it down; Oklahoma State and Arizona suffered consecutive beatdowns in the rain by a combined score of 101-15.

Houston will look to build upon a 4-8 debut campaign for Willie Fritz, though it lost each of its final three contests. Former Texas A&M quarterback Conner Weigman — from nearby Cypress, Texas — takes over behind center for the Cougars after compiling 2,694 passing yards with 19 touchdowns and seven interceptions across the previous three years.

1. at Kansas State, Sept. 27

For the third straight year, UCF opens Big 12 play away from home — including a second showdown in the Little Apple.

K-State serves as a good litmus test for the new-look Knights; the Wildcats are normally a shoo-in for eight wins, and they regularly contend for the conference’s championship. Dynamic dual-threat quarterback Avery Johnson produced 2,712 passing yards, 605 rushing yards and 32 touchdowns after inheriting the reins from Will Howard.

247Sports’ Brad Crawford listed Kansas State at No. 20 in his post-spring top-25 college football poll. CBS Sports’ Brandon Marcello went a step further by ranking the Wildcats 13th, tops among Big 12 programs.

Frost carried positivity through the spring, and those vibes will only continue if the Knights could stage a genuine shock at K-State’s expense and start Big 12 play on the right foot.

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