The Big 12 remains the most upwardly mobile power conference in college football, which makes the race for a College Football Playoff spot a battle. Last season, nine of the 16 teams were still in the conference title race by the final weeks of the season, and Arizona State — picked last place in the preseason media poll — won the league.
The race will be wide-open again, meaning that everyone across the conference has a chance. Still, a few teams rank above the rest coming into the year. Many of the top quarterbacks in the conference return, including Arizona State’s Sam Leavitt, BYU’s Jake Retzlaff and Baylor’s Sawyer Robertson. Other programs, like Texas Tech, are betting big on offseason additions to reach conference contention.
With nearly nine months to go until the CFP’s Selection Sunday, here are the Big 12’s top five contenders in 2025.
Arizona State
In so many ways, the 2024 season was far ahead of schedule. The Sun Devils were picked last place in the Big 12 but turned around to win the league and qualify for the CFP. The quickened timeline helps because the vast majority of contributors on the roster are back. Leavitt, defensive back Xavion Alford and wide receiver Jordyn Tyson sit among the best at their position in the conference. The coaching staff of Kenny Dillingham, Marcus Arroyo and Brian Ward have a track record of getting the most out of their teams.
The biggest question comes at running back after Heisman Trophy contender Cam Skattebo graduated. The Sun Devils looked to the transfer portal and added Army’s Kanye Udoh to the room of Kyson Brown, Raleek Brown and Alton McCaskill. The schedule could also be a little tougher with road trips to Baylor, Utah and Iowa State. Still, ASU is on top until further notice, and that gives them a chance.
BYU
By my money, the Cougars were the most undervalued team in college football last season. Despite going on the road and beating CFP-bound SMU and finishing 10-2 — with their two losses coming by a combined nine points — the Cougars were No. 17 in the final CFP Rankings, behind three-loss Clemson. Luckily, the core of the team is back for another bite at the apple.
Retzlaff took a major leap in 2024 and should only get better with top receiver Chase Roberts back. The biggest reason for optimism is the emergence of running back LJ Martin, a legitimate all-conference talent when healthy. The star of the team was the defense, and big-time contributors like Isaiah Glasker and Jack Kelly are back. Back-to-back road trips against Iowa State and Texas Tech won’t be easy, but otherwise the schedule remains manageable. The Cougs deserve first place votes.
Baylor
No one in the Big 12 was better in the second half of 2024 than the Baylor Bears. Baylor zoomed through the latter half of Big 12 play, ending on a six-game winning streak with a dominant 28-point win over a Kansas team fresh off three straight victories. With quarterback Sawyer Robertson, running back Bryson Washington and offensive coordinator Jake Spavital all back, the Bears should be serious conference contenders.
However, the Bears have to start the year quicker than last season. Baylor plays CFP teams SMU and Arizona State in the first four games, then mixes in a marquee nonconference game against a desperate Auburn squad in a Friday game. Getting back to conference contention was an important first step, but now is the moment for Dave Aranda to prove he has staying power.
The Wildcats had a disappointing season, but that says more about the expectations in Manhattan. Growing pains were expected after handing the keys to first-year starting quarterback Avery Johnson, who completed only 58% of his passes. Ultimately, KSU lost three of their last four games by a combined 23 points to finish 8-4.
Progress is expected in Year 2 with Johnson, especially after the Wildcats added receivers Jerand Bradley and Caleb Medford to give Johnson some help. Running back Dylan Edwards should also step into a bigger, more explosive role after a year in the offense. The WIldcats need to grow on both sides of the ball, but coach Chris Klieman is one of the best developers in the nation. It keeps KSU in the conversation every year.
Texas Tech
No team in the Big 12 is swinging harder for the fences than Texas Tech. The Red Raiders reeled in a top-three transfer class, including four players ranked in the top 50, all in the trenches. The defense ranked among the worst in the country last season, but safety Cole Wisniewski and defensive end Romello Height join linebacker Jacob Rodriguez, one of the nation’s most underrated players, to try to deliver quicker results. The offense, led by returning quarterback Behren Morton, should again be one of the Big 12’s best.
Perhaps the biggest question mark comes on the staff as Texas Tech flips out both coordinators. Mack Leftwich and Shiel Wood are big-time talents, but there’s little time to waste with the roster investment. Getting Arizona State, Kansas State and BYU in the second half of the season — two of which come on the road — will define the Red Raiders’ possibilities.
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