Thunder at Nuggets Game 6 picks, odds, how to watch: Oklahoma City tries to close out Denver

In the biggest game to date of its winningest season ever, the Oklahoma City Thunder did what they do best.

They mounted a fourth-quarter comeback off fleet, pressurizing, ultra-switchable defense — Nikola Jokić was swarmed in double coverage, and space was clogged by the 2-3 zone. They also went “Big on Big” — the duo of Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein came together for 29 points and 15 rebounds

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The Denver Nuggets don’t have time to ruminate on their Game 5 blown lead. They now have to host an elimination game against a formidable and deeply-motivated young squad. It should make for thoroughly awesome TV.

How to watch Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets Game 6

ESPN broadcasts can also be streamed with ESPN+.


Thunder at Nuggets Game 6

Thunder lead series 3-2

Series odds: Thunder -1400, Nuggets +800

Facing that deficit in Game 5, Oklahoma City stayed cool and let their MVP candidate put his head down. Shai-Gilgeous Alexander got through the paint, to the line and in transition off a 36 percent usage rate. With the inspired win on Tuesday night, Oklahoma City is now one game away from the Western Conference finals.

Defense has been dominant of late in this series. Game 4 was a ’90s-style rock fight, and Game 5 featured a combined 29 turnovers. Both sides are struggling from 3-point range, with the Thunder at a collective 33.7 percent and the Nuggets down to just 32.5.

Denver desperately needs more balanced production to pull the home upset Thursday. Through five games, the only starters shooting above 40 percent are Jokić and Aaron Gordon. It’s been especially unsightly for the two youngest starters — Christian Braun (33.3 percent) has been bricky and Michael Porter Jr. looks completely lost on both ends of the floor versus OKC’s wings.

Jokić made another languid but undeniable case for his best player in the world candidacy, finishing Game 5 with an efficient 44/15/5 line. In his last three elimination games (Game 7 against the Clippers last round, Game 7 against the Timberwolves in 2024 and Game 5 against the Warriors in 2022), the three-time MVP is averaging around 27 points, 16 rebounds and 8 assists. He went 1-2 in those spots, though, with nearly five turnovers per game.

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More giveaways will all but certainly do Denver in. The Nuggets are getting dominated in turnover differentials. Most lost possessions can be attributed to this whirring, relentless defense, but others have been crushingly sloppy. Whoever has the hot hand Thursday will get maximum cardio in, as the two-big double-teams force constant movement around the Jokić orbit.

The Thunder have the far deeper and more balanced rotation. The best non-SGA options by offensive rating have been Hartenstein and Aaron Wiggins. Alex Caruso has hit multiple treys in all but one of these games. The slumping Jalen Williams got to throw Tuesday’s corner dagger (he celebrated accordingly).

Mark Daigneault’s group is extremely green. Every major contributor is 26 or younger and has yet to reach the Finals, save for the 30-year-old Caruso (who won a ring with the Lakers in 2020). The Nuggets are on their home court Thursday, and they have a clear advantage in clutch-time experience. What remains to be seen is how much that experience matters against a budding two-way juggernaut.

Expert picks

On this day (May 15) in NBA Playoffs history

2015 — Hawks 94, Wizards 91: Paul Pierce nailed an improbable game-tying trey… or so we thought. Upon review, the clock hit zeros before Pierce got his shot off, giving the decisive Game 6 to Atlanta and securing that franchise’s first trip to the conference finals. Here’s to what could have been.


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(Photo of Nikola Jokić and Jalen Williams: Matthew Stockman / Getty Images)

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