The top two teams in the American League West will begin a key four-game series when the Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros square off on Thursday at Daikin Park in Houston. The Mariners (28-20) lead the division by 3.5 games over the Astros (25-24).
George Kirby, who has been on the injured list since March 24 with inflammation in his throwing shoulder, is set to make his season debut for Seattle. Last season, Kirby went 14-11 with a 3.53 ERA. He will square off against Lance McCullers Jr. (0-1, 7.88 ERA), who has made three starts this season after sitting out the last two seasons because of injuries.
Sportsbooks have set Kirby’s total strikeout player prop at 4.5 (Over +126, Under -165), while McCullers’ is 4.5 (Over -108, Under -105). The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Kirby Over 4.5 as a 4.5-star play on its five-star scale and one of the top three pitcher strikeout props for Thursday. Meanwhile, McCullers Over 4.5 is a 3.5-star play.
In addition to Kirby Over 4.5, the model has found two other plays on Thursday’s nine-game schedule. Both are rated at 4.5 stars, including one that would pay plus money. Here they are:
Stephen Kolek Over 3.5 strikeouts (+116) vs. Blue Jays (1:07 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.6 strikeouts
The 28-year-old righty has been solid in his first season in the Padres rotation. After spending last year in the bullpen, Kolek (2-1, 2.33) won his first two starts of 2025, not allowing a run in 14.1 combined innings against the Pirates and Rockies. In his last start he finally gave up his first runs of the season in a 5-1 loss to the Mariners. Despite the loss, he went Over 3.5 strikeouts for the third time in three starts this year.
Mike Burrows Over 3.5 strikeouts (-147) vs. Brewers (6:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.0 strikeouts
The Pirates sent down the struggling Carmen Mlodzinski and are giving Burrows a chance in the rotation. The 25-year-old righty has been good at Triple-A Indianapolis this season, going 2-1 with a 2.51 ERA and 41 strikeouts in 32.1 innings. On Thursday he will take the mound against a Milwaukee ballclub that has struggled at the plate this season, hitting just .229. Just five teams have a worse batting average.
George Kirby Over 4.5 strikeouts (+126) vs. Astros (8:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.6 strikeouts
Even though the 27-year-old righty will be making his first start of the season, he has been getting cranked up in the minors. He struck out 13 in 10.0 innings across three minor league starts while also displaying a four-seam fastball consistently at 96 MPH. Meanwhile, Houston is not seeing the ball well right now, having struck out 25 times over the last two games. Last season, Kirby faced the Astros four times, striking out six, six, eight and three batters.
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