Reigning National League MVP Shohei Ohtani makes his pitching debut for the reigning World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers when he makes the start against the visiting San Diego Padres on Monday in the opener of a four-game series between the NL West rivals. Ohtani, who owns a 38-19 record and 3.01 ERA as a pitcher in the major leagues, has not been on the mound since Aug. 23, 2023, while with the Los Angeles Angels, due to a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow and a torn labrum in his left shoulder that he suffered in Game 2 of last year’s World Series.
Ohtani is not expected to pitch deep into Monday’s contest, as Dodgers manager Dave Roberts is likely to limit him to one or two innings. The 30-year-old Japanese right-hander, who also won the AL MVP twice with the Angels, yielded five runs on seven hits and four walks over five innings en route to a loss on July 4, 2023, in his only career turn against San Diego.
The Dodgers won two of three at San Diego last week and did the same at home against the San Francisco Giants this past weekend. They are two games ahead of the Giants in the NL West and three in front of the Padres.
San Diego, which ended a three-game slide Sunday with an 8-2 triumph over the Arizona Diamondbacks, counters with Dylan Cease (2-5, 4.28 ERA). The 29-year-old righty, who ended an 11-start winless streak with a dominant effort versus the Dodgers last Tuesday, is 2-1 with a superb 1.95 ERA in five career turns against the club.
Sportsbooks have set the total strikeout player prop for Cease (Over +114, Under -147) at 6.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Cease Over 6.5 as a 4-star play on its five-star scale.
In addition to Cease, the model has found other good value on Monday’s seven-game schedule, as there is a pitcher strikeout player prop that the model has rated at 4.5 stars and another at four stars. Here they are:
Carson Palmquist Over 3.5 strikeouts (-144) vs. Nationals (6:45 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.6 strikeouts
Palmquist remains in search of his first major-league victory as he makes his sixth career start. The 24-year-old left-hander went Over this number twice in his first five turns, doing so in back-to-back outings against the Chicago Cubs and New York Mets before recording only two strikeouts over four innings versus San Francisco last week. Palmquist has the potential for a high strikeout total, as he fanned eight batters across 4 2/3 frames in his start against the Mets, and the Nationals struck out 20 times in their three-game series versus the Miami Marlins this past weekend.
Jake Irvin Under 5.5 strikeouts (-137) vs. Rockies (6:45 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4 stars
Model projection: 4.4 strikeouts
Even though Colorado’s offense leads the major leagues in strikeouts (691), Irvin has fanned six or more batters in only five of his 14 starts this season. The 28-year-old right-hander has gone Over this number just twice in nine turns since recording nine strikeouts over 6 1/3 innings on Apr. 20 against the Rockies. Irvin has struck out only seven batters across 15 frames in his last three outings and fanned just three over five innings versus the Chicago Cubs in his last start at home.
Dylan Cease Over 6.5 strikeouts (+114) vs. Dodgers (10:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4 stars
Model projection: 6.7 strikeouts
Cease has gone Over this number in half of his 14 starts this year and five of the last seven. After fanning seven batters over five innings of a loss to San Francisco on June 5, he recorded a season-high 11 strikeouts across seven frames against the Dodgers last week. Teoscar Hernandez has struck out eight times in 17 career at-bats versus Cease, and Will Smith has gone down on strikes in six of his 11 at-bats against the right-hander. In his five previous starts versus the Dodgers, Cease has registered 39 strikeouts over 27 2/3 innings.
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