While the college football rankings are not expected to see major upheaval after Week 9, there are plenty of changes coming after a week that featured five games between teams ranked in the AP Top 25 poll. Of those five matchups, none were more significant than Texas A&M’s win against LSU, which kept the Aggies in first place in the SEC standings and will likely propel them into the top 10 when the rankings are updated on Sunday.
The top of the rankings are likely to stay mostly static. Oregon was one of the only top teams to get through Week 9 without facing the real potential of an upset. Penn State, Ohio State and Texas all faced various levels of adversity in victory with the Nittany Lions and the Buckeyes getting late touchdowns to preserve their standing, while the Longhorns held off a late charge from Vanderbilt.
Further down the rankings, voters will have to start making some decisions about how long they are willing to put undefeated power conferences teams behind other teams with losses. BYU and Indiana both won by double-digit margins on Saturday to maintain their unbeaten start, and on Thursday, Pitt totally dismantled Syracuse to improve to 7-0. In last week’s balloting, there were six teams with losses ahead of BYU, seven ahead of Indiana and 12 teams with losses ahead of Pitt, including two-loss Ole Miss.
There will also be some split decisions regarding teams in the 20s after Illinois, Missouri, Navy and Vanderbilt all lost. Some voters will boot any team in that range that loses, while others have been more reluctant to keep teams on their ballot if the defeat came at the hands of a top-ranked team. All four lost to top-15 teams in Week 9.
Here’s how we project the new AP Top 25 to look on Sunday after Week 9.
1. Oregon (Last week — 1): We don’t expect to see any change at the top after the Ducks handled their business in a 38-9 win against Illinois. Oregon led 35-3 at halftime and got plenty of reps for the backups as they prepare to hit the road and play at Michigan next week.
2. Georgia (2): The Bulldogs were off in Week 9 and will be back in action next Saturday against Florida.
3. Penn State (3): Top of mind for Penn State fans will not be where they sit in the rankings but instead the status of starting quarterback Drew Allar, who did not play in the second half of Saturday night’s 28-13 win at Wisconsin due to injury. The Nittany Lions deserve credit for rallying with their QB1 out, getting a pick six from the defense and a strong showing from backup quarterback Beau Pribula to close out the win and keep Penn State undefeated.
4. Ohio State (4): A close call against Nebraska isn’t going to leave voters with any motivation to start pushing the Buckeyes up their ballots, but the opportunities for Ohio State to move up are coming up next week at Penn State.
5. Texas (5): Quinn Ewers was extremely sharp early, not missing a single throw until late in the first half and finishing with 288 yards and three touchdowns in the 27-24 win against Vanderbilt. Because the Commodores were able to charge back into the game in the final 20 minutes — cutting a 24-10 lead to just three points with less than a minute remaining — there’s not going to be a major move up, but Texas enters its off week 7-1 still in the thick of the SEC title race.
6. Miami (6): While Florida State had the score at 14-7 midway through the second quarter, Miami was rarely threatened with the potential of an upset in what ended up being a 36-14 rivalry win to improve to 8-0.
7. Texas A&M (14): If the AP voters were willing to overlook other head-to-head results from the early weeks of the season on their ballots, then I do think we will see the Notre Dame ceiling shattered after the Aggies’ win against LSU. As Texas A&M continued to climb the rankings with each win, the Fighting Irish have always been their ceiling as they were both one-loss teams with somewhat similar profiles. But after Marcel Reed‘s second-half heroics, I think voters can justify that the Texas A&M team they are ranking heading into Week 10 is far different than the group that fell in a low-scoring grinder to Notre Dame in Week 1.
8. Tennessee (7): The Volunteers were off in Week 9 and will be back in action next Saturday against Kentucky.
9. Clemson (9): The Tigers were off in Week 9 and will be back in action next Saturday against Louisville.
10. Iowa State (10): The Cyclones were off in Week 9 and will be back in action next Saturday against Texas Tech.
11. BYU (11): Poll inertia will probably prevent it, but there’s a solid argument for a move up by a couple spots for the Cougars after a commanding 37-24 win at UCF. The oddsmakers had the game as a toss-up and BYU made it anything but with an early 17-0 lead and the sixth straight game scoring 30-plus points.
12. Notre Dame (12): The day started with all eyes on MetLife Stadium and one of the most highly anticipated editions of the Notre Dame-Navy rivalry in recent years, but if you were looking for upset potential, the Fighting Irish shut it down early. Notre Dame bowled over Navy’s defense, and some uncharacteristic turnovers by the Midshipmen made it easy for the Fighting Irish to build a big lead early and cruise to a 51-14 blowout win.
13. Indiana (13): The Hoosiers have played six quarters without star quarterback Kurtis Rourke and are outscoring their opponents 59-17 in that span after a 14-point home win against Washington. Rourke’s absence was certainly felt against the Huskies as the passing game struggled to get going, but Indiana’s defense showed up with big-time plays and the ground game wore Washington down in the second half to improve to 8-0 on the year.
14. Alabama (15): The offensive struggles for Missouri laid the foundation for Alabama to get a much-needed 34-0 win, improving to 6-2 overall as the team heads into a late-season off week. After going 2-2 across four consecutive one-score games, the Crimson Tide actually had a little room to breathe on Saturday with allowing the run game to get going and the defense to log a couple of interceptions.
15. Kansas State (16): We’re not expecting the AP voters to punish the Wildcats for a closer-than-expected victory against Kansas in a rivalry game. In pulling off the 29-26 win, Kansas State should hold its spot in the rankings order.
16. Boise State (17): On a fourth-and-goal in the fourth quarter with first place in the Mountain West on the line, the only logical option was to give it to Ashton Jeanty and the Broncos star delivered with a go-ahead (and eventually game-winning) touchdown at UNLV on Friday night. Boise State helped its rankings profile with the win and could be slated for an improvement after dropping two spots last week in the wake of a win against Hawaii.
17. Pitt (19): We’re projecting Pitt to make some moves ahead of other teams with losses after improving to 7-0 overall with a thunderous 41-13 win against Syracuse. The Panthers defense delivered three pick sixes on five interceptions and now stare down a November schedule that has the 2021 ACC champions firmly in the midst of the conference title race once again.
18. LSU (8): The fall for the Tigers is extremely predictable. The head-to-head advantage from a recent win against Ole Miss provides an easy spot for voters to drop a two-loss team that they still likely consider one of the 20 best in the country after a loss at Texas A&M.
19. Ole Miss (18): The days of the Ole Miss offense ripping through opponents seem farther and farther away after the Rebels failed to score 30 points for the fourth straight game. Injuries, especially to star wide receiver Tre Harris, certainly played a role, but for voters trying to slot the Rebels on their ballots there wasn’t a ton to take away from Saturday’s 26-14 win against Oklahoma that would suggest a move up is needed.
20. Army (23): The Black Knights were off in Week 9 and will be back in action next week against Air Force in the next chapter of the 2024 battle for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy.
21. SMU (22): Going to overtime against Duke as a double-digit favorite isn’t going to inspire voter confidence, but in holding on for the victory, the Mustangs will remain inside the top 25.
22. Colorado (NR): In taking down Cincinnati, the Buffs improved to 6-2 overall and 4-1 in conference play with that only Big 12 defeat coming to top-20 Kansas State by three points. Colorado has been playing its best football of the season in this last four-game stretch and the #Big12AfterDark win will have them making a return to the AP poll for the first time since last year’s early-season success.
23. Illinois (20): The Fighting Illini were eight points shy of Ole Miss in last week’s balloting and a clear two tiers ahead of the cut line, so we’re projecting that at 6-2, the road loss to Oregon won’t bounce Bret Bielema’s group out of the top 25.
24. Washington State (NR): The Cougars were 26th in last week’s balloting and though it was a sweat were able to improve to 7-1 with a win at San Diego State late Saturday night.
25. Vanderbilt (25): Can the Commodores hang on? There aren’t many obvious options when looking at last week’s balloting, and Vanderbilt did push the former No. 1-ranked team all the way to an onside kick attempt.
Projected to drop out: No. 21 Missouri, No. 24 Navy
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