Mary DeCicco/MLB Photos via Getty Images
2024 Stats: .260/.315/.453, 26 HR, 75 RBI, 44 BB, .768 OPS, 4.1 WAR
Age in 2025: 31
Contract Prediction: Three years, $90 million with player opt outs available after 2025 and 2026
Team Prediction: Detroit Tigers
At the outset of the offseason, B/R’s prediction was that Bregman would sign a five-year, $130 million contract that included a $26 million club option to return to the Houston Astros.
That will not be happening.
The Astros acquired Isaac Parades from the Chicago Cubs in the Kyle Tucker trade, and then signed veteran first baseman Christian Walker to a three-year, $60 million deal. They are set at corner infield, and still have Jose Altuve at second base. After nine years in Houston, Bregman will be playing elsewhere next season.
Still, as much as the Boras client may want $200+ million this offseason, we remain skeptical that he’ll actually get that. Bregman was a superstar in 2018 and 2019, posting a .970 OPS. In the five seasons since then, he’s been a very good player, but the .795 OPS he’s posted over the last half decade doesn’t scream $200+ million. He did just win a Gold Glove Award at third base, and has an extended postseason resume. There’s plenty to like about Bregman. There don’t seem to be a ton of teams who love him lining up to give him $200+ million, including the one that he’s a franchise icon for.
Dillard Barnhart @BarnHasSpoken2
Alex Bregman walk-off to MARS pic.twitter.com/hsrhKGST70
Perhaps then he can go the route that both Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman and Blake Snell—three other Scott Boras clients—went last offseason and sign a shorter deal that gives him the chance to opt out and return to the market if he thinks he can make more next winter. Bellinger got three years and $80 million last winter. Bregman is a better player, but also a few years older. So a slightly larger deal probably makes sense for all involved.
A short-term term deal with the Tigers makes sense. It gives a young team that just made the postseason a veteran presence to help them potentially become a regular in the postseason. Signing with Detroit would reunite Bregman with A.J. Hinch, who was his skipper in Houston for the first four seasons of his career.
If Bregman has a great year and opts out, then Jace Jung can take over as the starting third baseman in 2026 if the Tigers don’t want to make a long-term investment in him. But if the two sides want to extend the arrangement, Jung could become a trade chip.
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