Trending 📉 📈 after first week of NFL’s free agency, as Bears, Raiders retool

Inside: The biggest beneficiaries from the first week of free agency — a list with Caleb Williams, Sean Payton and two of the Bengals’ stars — and the teams whose stocks took hits.


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Free Agency: Nine who are trending up

After a dramatic week, the Seahawks’ QB shuffle stands out as the most regime-defining move, for better or worse (more on that later). But plenty of others are in contention for that distinction. Let’s start with the positives:

📈 Caleb Williams. Chicago hasn’t had a top-five offensive line since 2006, the season with their last Super Bowl appearance. Coincidence? Head coach Ben Johnson doesn’t think so.

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The Bears have quickly rebuilt their interior, adding proven veterans like G Joe Thuney to help their 23-year-old quarterback with “things like the snap count, protection or the run game,” as newly signed center Drew Dalman explained at a news conference.

📈 Commanders. Adding proven veterans worked in year one for GM Adam Peters and HC Dan Quinn, as LB Bobby Wagner, TE Zach Ertz and LB Frankie Luvu helped set the “Commander Standard.” Washington doubled down this offseason, spending a net of four draft picks and plenty of cash to acquire WR Deebo Samuel, DT Javon Kinlaw and LT Laremy Tunsil. Their biggest bet is the 30-year-old Tunsil, who could bounce back to become a version of perennial All-Pro Trent Williams.

📈 Vikings run game. RB Aaron Jones was rewarded for his 1,546-total-yard season with a two-year contract and the addition of powerful interior linemen, former Colts RG Will Fries and C Ryan Kelly. And Jones was already dangerous when running up the middle:

Coming off the biggest workload of his career, the 30-year-old Jones should see fewer than 250-plus touches, especially now that Minnesota has traded for a complement, former 49ers RB Jordan Mason. These additions could allow HC Kevin O’Connell to use a more varied run scheme after an outside zone-heavy approach the past few years.

On defense, Minnesota improved the interior with new DTs: former 49er Javon Hargrave and longtime Commander Jonathan Allen. Alec Lewis explains every major Vikings move so far.

📈 Raiders offense. They added Geno Smith, who is a better quarterback than most think, and culture-setting coach Pete Carroll, but lost several key defensive pieces. Still, imposing pass rushers DE Maxx Crosby, DT Christian Wilkins and DE Malcolm Koonce will help Carroll’s Raiders compete immediately. This offseason, no other team improved as dramatically.

📈 The Broncos. Sean Payton and his work with Bo Nix led to a playoff appearance, despite having to allocate 20 percent of Denver’s cap to Russell Wilson. Nix completed 66.3 percent of his passes and threw 29 touchdowns, the second-most by a rookie in NFL history.

Recently signed TE Evan Engram gives Nix another playmaker, but the bigger story this offseason is how their defense improved where needed. After watching the Bills run for 4.8 yards per carry in Denver’s playoff defeat, the Broncos took upside swings on off-ball linebacker Dre Greenlaw and strong safety Talanoa Hufanga.

📈 Patriots defense. Ted Nguyen includes it in his list of the NFL’s most improved units. A few notable quotes:

  • “Signing CB Carlton Davis, who allowed a quarterback rating of 77.1 when targeted last season, will ensure that opponents can’t just throw away from No. 1 CB Christian Gonzalez.”
  • “LB Robert Spillane gives them one of the better run-stuffing linebackers. His lack of athleticism makes him a liability in man coverage, but he’s an underrated defender in zone coverage.”
  • “DT Milton Williams was a force for the Eagles, rushing next to Jalen Carter last season. With DT Christian Barmore’s future in question, Williams will have a lot on his shoulders as the Patriots’ top interior rusher.”

It’s a good start, but Chad Graff notes that there are still questions about this team, particularly at left tackle and receiver.

📈 Colts secondary. New DC Lou Anarumo’s two best years in charge of the Bengals’ defense came when All-Pro free safety Jessie Bates III anchored complicated schemes.

The Colts’ newly signed safety, Cam Bynum, can fill a similar role. He teams with their other high-profile signing, CB Charvarius Ward, to bring “experience, production and high-IQ to the team’s new-look defense under Anarumo, who will likely take an aggressive approach,” per beat reporter James Boyd in his Colts free-agency takeaways.

📈 Rams. Re-sign Matthew Stafford? Check. Extend starting left tackle Alaric Jackson? Done. Add a dynamic receiver opposite Puka Nacua? Davante Adams checked that box better than anyone else available could’ve. The story was similar on the other side of the ball, where former Chargers DT Poona Ford partially patches up a leaky run defense.

📈 Bengals offense. Thanks to this past weekend, Joe Burrow can slow his media tour. His top two targets agreed to four-year deals, keeping Ja’Marr Chase ($40.25 million average, with $112 million guaranteed) and Tee Higgins ($28.75 million average with the first two years guaranteed) in Cincinnati during their prime years.

Paul Dehner Jr. explains the fallout from these staggering signings, which made Chase the third player this offseason to claim the title of highest-paid non-quarterback in league history (after Maxx Crosby and Myles Garrett) and Higgins the current ninth-highest-paid receiver. Oh, and Cincy might not be done.

Before we cover the fallers, Dianna has additional news below.


What Dianna’s Hearing: Bengals 2-for-2 so far

Few thought the Bengals could pull it off, but they took two big steps in the right direction after closing on long-term deals with star receivers Chase and Higgins. Next up: Trey Hendrickson.

Earlier this month, Cincinnati granted the 30-year-old pass rusher permission to seek a trade, but that didn’t mean the team or player closed the door on a potential new deal. Indeed, discussions are ongoing, and the Bengals still have a chance to lock up all three of their (non-Joe Burrow) stars in one offseason.

Back to you, Jacob.


Free Agency: Four teams trending down

📉 49ers depth, for now. The effects of Brock Purdy’s impending extension are already being felt. The team parted ways with aforementioned key contributors — Samuel, Greenlaw, Ward and Hufanga — as well as starting-caliber offensive linemen Jaylon Moore and Aaron Banks. Amid the mass exodus, beat reporter Matt Barrows explains the similarities to the Rams’ 2023 remodel. Keep in mind that they still hold 11 picks in the upcoming draft, including No. 11 overall.

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📉 Cowboys enthusiasm. They missed on bigger-name vets like Cooper Kupp and Greenlaw, but did address some holes, particularly at linebacker, with Kenneth Murray and Jack Sanborn.

Still, there’s little optimism for a marked improvement, especially with a looming $40 million-plus extension for OLB Micah Parsons. (Though drafting RB Ashton Jeanty at No. 12 could change that, quickly.) For the full picture, read The Athletic’s free-agency rundown for Dallas.

📉 Seahawks. It sounds like Seattle wanted to keep both Geno Smith and DK Metcalf. Instead, they got younger and cheaper by adding Sam Darnold. Newly signed Cooper Kupp, who fits as a zone beater and mentor for third-year WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, joins DE DeMarcus Lawrence as the other premium veteran additions.

But the Darnold experiment is bound to fail if the Seahawks run it back with their dreadful offensive line. So far, they’ve only added backup OL Josh Jones. Not good.

📉 C.J. Stroud’s safety. As Mike Jones writes in our full list of free-agency winners and losers, “The Texans are gambling big-time with Stroud’s health” by trading away Tunsil.

Houston has seven draft picks (including a first, a second and two thirds) to improve their line, but even after Tunsil’s down year, no rookie in this class is likely to fill his big shoes.


Last week’s most-clicked: DeMarcus Lawrence takes shot at Cowboys, sparking tiff with Micah Parsons.

We’re back to three newsletters per week, now that free agency has slowed. See you Wednesday.


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(Photo: Michael Reaves, Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)