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Seth Walder
The Philadelphia Eagles are the favorites to win Super Bowl LX — but just barely, with a cluster of teams close to the reigning champs in terms of ability and chance to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. That’s according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) — our football ratings and projection model — which launched Wednesday for the 2025 season.
The Eagles have a 12% chance to win the Super Bowl according to the model, the lowest chance the preseason favorite has had to win it all since the model began outputting preseason projections in 2015.
In the preseason, FPI’s overall predictive ratings are primarily based on win totals from the betting market in conjunction with each team’s schedule — along with factors such as the difference between a team’s starting and backup quarterback and a special teams rating that incorporates specific kickers. We use these ratings to simulate the season thousands of times, with the results forming our projections.
Ratings evolve as we learn more about each team based on its performance on offense, defense and special teams — accounting for opponent — along with quarterback performance and changes. Game predictions are also affected by home-field advantage and rest differentials. Let’s dive into our 2025 forecast and our biggest takeaways.
Jump to:
Top teams | Super Bowl | NFC North
NFC West | AFC East | AFC North
Who’s last? | No. 1 pick
Eagles top the NFL’s elite group
The NFL’s 2025 oligarchy consists of a clear top tier: the Eagles, Chiefs, Ravens, Lions and Bills. These teams are separated by at most a single point in FPI rating, meaning none of them would be favored by more than a single point over another on a neutral field. But there’s a drastic, 1.8-point drop-off between the No. 5-ranked Bills and the No. 6-ranked Commanders.
First look at NFL FPI ratings for the 2025 season! pic.twitter.com/k6s2fg40X7
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) May 27, 2025
The common theme between the top five teams? Offensive strength. That’s right, the “defense wins championships” cliché isn’t reflected here. Offense is more stable from game to game and season to season, so teams with the best past quarterback and offensive production are more likely to repeat that success. That’s critical because the point of the FPI is to look ahead, not back. It’s no coincidence that the top five teams also have the five best offenses according to the FPI, albeit in a different order.
But it’s not all offense — the defending champion Eagles are oh-so-slightly in the overall lead because they also have the best defense. With linebacker Zack Baun back to anchor the middle and ascending young talent such as defensive tackle Jalen Carter and cornerbacks Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, Philly’s defense sets it apart.
All five teams in the top tier have at least an 8% chance to win the Super Bowl, and there is a 50% chance that the Super Bowl winner will be one of those five teams. No other team has greater than a 5% chance to win it all.
Could we see an Eagles-Chiefs repeat in the Super Bowl?
Two of the past three Super Bowls have been between Kansas City and Philadelphia. Will it be three of four? The 4.2% chance of a Super Bowl LIX repeat is the greatest of any combination of teams in our Super Bowl matchup projections, slightly besting the 3.6% chances of Ravens-Eagles and Bills-Eagles matchups. Top combinations are listed below and rounded to the nearest whole number.
When looking at the top 10 most likely Super Bowl combinations, several different NFC teams appear on the list. The Eagles and Lions show up the most, but the Commanders, Rams and 49ers each appeared in one of the most likely combinations. The AFC side of the matchups was dominated by three teams — the Chiefs, Bills and Ravens.
Who is the favorite in the loaded NFC North?
It’s not a big surprise, but every team in the NFC North ranks in the top half of the FPI ratings. Detroit leads the way at No. 4, followed by the Packers (No. 8), Vikings (No. 15) and Bears (No. 16).
If there is a curveball, it’s that Minnesota ranks only 15th after going 14-3 in 2024. But the Vikings relied on their defense — which ranked third in EPA per play — last season while ranking a mediocre 15th on offense. And even though Brian Flores remains as defensive coordinator, defensive success is hard to replicate.
Plus, second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy is an unknown after missing his rookie season with a torn meniscus in his right knee. While he might possess more upside than last year’s starter, Sam Darnold, McCarthy’s downside is almost certainly lower. Therefore, the FPI gives Minnesota only a 19% chance to win the division and a 43% chance to reach the playoffs.
Meanwhile, the Bears moved in the opposite direction. After Chicago finished 24th in total efficiency (EPA per play adjusted for garbage time) last season, the FPI sees it as a minimally above-average team entering 2025. The reasons for optimism are obvious. The Bears brought in new coach Ben Johnson and added significant talent to their offensive line, and quarterback Caleb Williams now has a season of NFL experience — even if that experience was shaky.
So, who comes out ahead? The Lions lead the way with a 41% shot to win the division, with the Packers clocking in at 25%. But they all have a chance, as even the Bears are at 15%.
Can the 49ers bounce back and win the NFC West?
FPI narrowly has the Rams as the best team in the NFC West. But the favorite to win the division? That would (very narrowly) be the 49ers, with a 36% shot over the Rams’ 34%.
Why the discrepancy? Strength of schedule. No team enters 2025 with an easier slate than the 49ers, who not only get to face the NFC South and AFC South like the rest of their division, but also the Giants, Browns and Bears due to finishing last in the division in 2024. In comparison, the Rams must face the Eagles, Ravens and Lions as part of their first-place schedule.
That is enough to give San Francisco the edge over Los Angeles in the projections. It also indicates the FPI’s belief in the 49ers bouncing back after a brutally disappointing 6-11 campaign. A big part of that faith is the betting market believing that the 49ers were hampered by injuries to key players last season — including wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, running back Christian McCaffrey and offensive lineman Trent Williams — and that they should be dangerous if healthy.
Can any of the other AFC East teams challenge the Bills?
They could, but no individual team is particularly likely to do so. Buffalo is the only AFC East team with a positive FPI rating and would be considered more than a four-point favorite over each of the other three on a neutral field. And the Bills have a 65% chance to win their division — the highest of any team in the NFL by a hefty margin.
Of course, that leaves more than a 1-in-3 chance that someone else will win the AFC East. That’s mainly due to the uncertainty of football — the FPI might be overrating the Bills or underrating someone else, or one of the other teams could luck into the division title despite not being as good as Buffalo overall.
But that variance will always be there. In the meantime, the Bills are again in as good a position as it gets to win their division.
Will the Bengals return to the playoffs?
Probably! Cincinnati’s 2024 campaign disappointingly ended in the regular season despite quarterback Joe Burrow ranking third in QBR, the best performance of his career. But defense held the Bengals back, as they ranked 23rd in EPA allowed per play and particularly struggled against the run, ranking 30th in EPA in defending rushing plays.
But the lack of year-to-year continuity that happens with good defenses also happens with weaker units. Cincinnati replaced defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo with Al Golden this offseason, which increases the FPI’s uncertainty on that side of the ball. Ultimately, the model forecasts the Bengals to have an average defense, which moves them to No. 7 in the overall rankings.
The Ravens are by far the most likely AFC North champion at 54%, and the Bengals are next at 29%. But Cincinnati has a 60% chance to reach the playoffs. That makes it the fourth-most-likely playoff team in the AFC after missing the postseason the past two seasons.
Who ranks last?
The FPI’s 32nd-ranked team is not the Titans, Browns or Giants. It’s the Saints, who find themselves at the bottom of the rankings after the sudden retirement of veteran quarterback Derek Carr. His retirement forces New Orleans to rely on either second-round rookie Tyler Shough or second-year player Spencer Rattler at quarterback, barring another move. All rookie quarterbacks are viewed as a negative in the FPI, but a second-rounder like Shough — who the model presumes will start — will be considered a little worse than Cameron Ward, whom Tennessee selected with the No. 1 pick.
The good news for the Saints is that the FPI doesn’t think much of the NFC South. Only the Buccaneers have a positive FPI rating (they rank 14th). The Falcons and Panthers rank 26th and 28th, respectively. Partially because the division is so weak, all four NFC South teams rank in the bottom six in strength of schedule, which boosts each of their win projections. As a result, the Saints have only the fourth-best chance at the No. 1 pick in the 2026 draft despite their last-place overall FPI ranking.
Cleveland on the clock?
The Browns are the most likely team to end the season holding the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL draft, with a 13% shot. Much of that is due to a quarterback room comprising Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders and a harder-than-average schedule.
The Giants are rated slightly above the Browns in the FPI and have the second-highest chance to earn the No. 1 pick at 12%, due to facing the league’s most difficult schedule. The Titans, Saints and Jets follow with 11%, 10% and 10% chances, respectively.
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