While most can agree on the top teams in the ACC heading into the 2025 season, the rest of the conference seems to be a muddled up picture with no real differences between most teams. Clemson, Miami, SMU, and Louisville are the top teams to begin the season, but what about everyone else.
The newest SP+ Rankings from ESPN’s Bill Connelly were released this morning and it paints that exact picture. Virginia Tech is entering the season at No. 46, with the No. 53 projected offense, the No. 41 projected defense, and the No. 37 projected special teams unit
What is SP+? Here is how ESPN analyst Bill Connelly (creator of SP+) describes it:
“In a single sentence, it’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.
SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”
Here is how SP+ sees the ACC in the latest update:
1. Clemson (No. 8 overall)
2. Miami (No. 12)
3. SMU (No. 20)
4. Louisville (No. 24)
5. Florida State (No. 36)
6. Duke (No. 41)
7. NC State (No. 42)
8. Georgia Tech (No. 44)
9. Virginia Tech (No. 46)
10. Pittsburgh (No. 47)
11. North Carolina (No. 54)
12. Syracuse (No. 56)
13. Boston College (No. 62)
14. California (No. 65)
15. Virginia (No. 79)
16. Wake Forest (No. 81)
17. Stanford (No. 88)
Here is how Virginia Tech’s 2025 schedule looks from an SP+ perspective:
Aug. 31st- South Carolina (No. 17 Overall)
Sept. 6th- Vanderbilt (No. 55)
Sept. 13th- Old Dominion (No. 103)
Sept. 27th- NC State (No. 42)
Oct. 4th- Wake Forest (No. 81)
Oct. 11th- Georgia Tech (No. 44)
Oct. 24th- California (No. 65)
Nov. 1st- Louisville (No. 24)
Nov. 15th- Florida State (No. 36)
Nov. 22nd- Miami (12th)
Nov. 29th- Virginia (79th)
As you can see, there seems to be a clear top with the ACC, but then there seems to be a gap and a very muddled middle. The odds are high that at least one team from that group will breakthrough and be a surprise contender, but will it be the Hokies? They have two new coordinators and a ton of turnover on both sides of the ball. The schedule is not the most difficult in the ACC, but games against South Carolina, Miami, Louisville, and Georgia Tech are not going to be a cakewalk. This is a big season for Hokies head coach Brent Pry and where exactly Virginia Tech ends up is anyone’s guess heading into the season. The opener vs South Carolina could be telling.
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