While most can agree on the top teams in the ACC heading into the 2025 season, the rest of the conference seems to be a muddled-up picture with no real differences between most teams. Clemson, Miami, SMU, and Louisville are the top teams to begin the season, but what about everyone else?
The newest SP+ Rankings from ESPN’s Bill Connelly were released this morning and it paints that exact picture. Georgia Tech came in at No. 44 and has the No. 27 projected offense, No. 64 projected defense, and the No. 100 projected special teams unit.
What is SP+? Here is how ESPN analyst Bill Connelly (creator of SP+) describes it:
“In a single sentence, it’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.
SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”
Here is how SP+ sees the ACC in the latest update:
1. Clemson (No. 8 overall)
2. Miami (No. 12)
3. SMU (No. 20)
4. Louisville (No. 24)
5. Florida State (No. 36)
6. Duke (No. 41)
7. NC State (No. 42)
8. Georgia Tech (No. 44)
9. Virginia Tech (No. 46)
10. Pittsburgh (No. 47)
11. North Carolina (No. 54)
12. Syracuse (No. 56)
13. Boston College (No. 62)
14. California (No. 65)
15. Virginia (No. 79)
16. Wake Forest (No. 81)
17. Stanford (No. 88)
Here is how Georgia Tech’s 2025 schedule looks from an SP+ perspective:
Aug. 29th- Colorado (No. 52 overall)
Sept. 13th- Clemson (No. 8)
Sept. 20th- Temple (126th)
Sept. 27th- Wake Forest (No. 81)
Oct. 11th- Virginia Tech (No. 46)
Oct. 18th- Duke (No. 41)
Oct. 25th- Syracuse (No. 56)
Nov. 1st- NC State (No. 42)
Nov. 15th- Boston College (No. 62)
Nov. 22nd- Pittsburgh (No. 47)
Nov. 28th- Georgia (No. 4)
When you look at the projected SP+ Rankings, Georgia Tech is only ranked lower than four of their opponents and two of them (Duke and NC State) are projected to be only 0.2 and 0.3 points better than Georgia Tech this season. SP+ projected Georgia Tech to have the No. 47 strength of schedule rating this season and Clemson and Georgia are doing a lot of heavy lifting there. There is a chance for Georgia Tech to take advantage of this schedule, but they will have to win quite a few coin-flip types of games, which has not been their strength under Brent Key.
CBS Sports college football analyst Chip Patterson recently released a batch of ACC Power Rankings and had the Yellow Jackets at No. 5, behind Clemson, Miami, Louisville, and SMU.
“The Yellow Jackets have the best quarterback depth in the ACC with Haynes King and Aaron Philo back from last year’s squad, and though the team lost some high-end talent through the portal, it’s still a roster that Brent Key will feel confident taking into battle each week. With one of the toughest strengths of schedule in the league, Georgia Tech is in a position where a power ranking of No. 5 is fitting but projected record or order of finish could be lower than other conference foes.”
Here are the full rankings:
1. Clemson
2. Miami
3. SMU
4. Louisville
5. Georgia Tech
6. Duke
7. Florida State
8. Virginia Tech
9. North Carolina
10. NC State
11. Pittsburgh
12. Syracuse
13. Boston College
14. Cal
15. Virginia
16. Wake Forest
17. Stanford
Fanduel Sportsbook recently updated their win totals for the 2025 season and Georgia Tech is opening the year with a projected win total of 7.5, with the over being at -130 and the under being at +106. If the Yellow Jackets go over, it would be their most wins in a season since 2016.
Here are the projected win totals for each of Georgia Tech’s opponent’s, except Gardner-Webb and Temple.
1. Colorado- 6.5
2. Clemson- 9.5
3. Wake Forest- 4.5
4. Virginia Tech- 6.5
5. Duke- 6.5
6. Syracuse- 5.5
7. NC State- 6.5
8. Boston College- 5.5
9. Pittsburgh- 5.5
10. Georgia- 9.5
In terms of odds to win the ACC, Clemson is going to enter the season as the favorite at +140, followed by Miami (+400), Louisville (+650), SMU (+750), and then the Yellow Jackets at +1300. After those five, there is a big dropoff to Duke at +2500.
Aside from Georgia and Clemson, no other team on Georgia Tech’s schedule has a win total above 6.5. While the Yellow Jackets typically have one of the nation’s toughest schedules, things broke their way this season, at least from where things look now. Can Brent Key and this program take advantage?
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