Welcome to the all-favorite Final Four.
For only the second time in the history of the NCAA men’s tournament, the last being in 2008, the final four teams standing are all No. 1 seeds.
Houston faces Duke, and Florida will play Auburn in Saturday’s national semifinals in San Antonio. The winners will advance to the national title game April 7.
The high-seed dominance extends to the women’s tournament, as well, where another all-No. 1-seeded Final Four is also possible.
UCLA and South Carolina, the top seeds in their regions, have already advanced to the Final Four, and they will be joined Monday by the winners of No. 1-seeded USC’s matchup with No. 2 seed Connecticut and No. 1 Texas’ in-state showdown with No. 2 TCU.
“We’re going to the Final Four with our four one seeds,” Auburn coach Bruce Pearl said at a postgame news conference Sunday after his team beat second-seeded Michigan State. “The four teams that advanced, I think they’re the four best teams in the country. That doesn’t obviously always happen.”
Pearl is right. It was no fait accompli that favorites would rule supreme.
From 2011 to last season — a 13-tournament span bookended by shocking Final Four runs by a pair of 11 seeds, Virginia Commonwealth and North Carolina State — a team seeded seventh or worse made the Final Four 13 times. Only the tournaments in 2012 and 2019 featured Final Fours in which each entrant was seeded sixth or better.
This year, upsets are out. Chalk is champion. And you didn’t have to be a college basketball obsessive to win your office’s NCAA Tournament bracket pool.
The lowest seed to advance to the women’s Sweet 16 was fifth. In the men’s tournament, 15 of the last 16 teams were seeded sixth or higher, with 10th-seeded Arkansas as the only outlier — which wasn’t a typical Cinderella, given it plays in this season’s most dominant conference, the SEC.
“We went to a Final Four as a four seed last year. We had a chance [this year] as a two,” Alabama coach Nate Oats said Saturday after his team’s Elite Eight loss to Duke. “But it’s certainly a lot better. I think Florida is in. They’re a one seed. Duke is in, they’re a one seed. So far there’s two teams in the Final Four that are both one seeds. We’ve got to do a better job during the regular season to try to make sure we get that one seed. It’s a little easier to make it as that one seed.”
The credentials Houston, Duke, Florida and Auburn built during the regular season suggested some combination of the four would be among the last teams remaining when the 68-team bracket opened this month.
Those four schools rank among the country’s top 10 defenses, as judged by defensive rating — the number of points allowed per 100 possessions — with Houston first out of 364 Division I teams, per KenPom.com. And offensively Duke, Florida and Auburn rank first, second and third, respectively, in offensive rating this season, with Houston 10th.
“It’s the expectation [to reach a Final Four] almost, because of how it’s been here,” Duke’s Sion James said. “But it’s not a guarantee by any means. Just because we go to Duke or play for Duke doesn’t mean we’re going to be in the Final Four every year. It’s a grind.”
It’s no accident that teams that are still alive are also linked by star power.
When the Naismith Trophy named its four men’s and women’s finalists for national player of the year last week, Florida (Walter Clayton Jr.), Auburn (Johni Broome) and Duke (Cooper Flagg) were represented. The four women’s finalists all came from teams that made the Elite Eight — Lauren Betts of UCLA, Paige Bueckers of Connecticut, JuJu Watkins of USC and Hannah Hidalgo of Notre Dame.
Historically, earning a high seed is virtually a prerequisite to end the season as national champion. Since 1985, when the bracket expanded to 64 teams, 34 of the past 39 men’s champions have been seeded first, second or third, with 25 champions coming from No. 1 seeds.
With three games left in the men’s tournament, one thing is guaranteed: By next week, that number will have grown to 26.
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