Current Super Bowl Odds: 5.2%
Why they will win the Super Bowl
Because of complimentary football. The Vikings have a great tandem in head coach Kevin O’Connell and defensive coordinator Brian Flores. I think they’ve gotten more out of this roster than anyone could have seen coming into the year. At times, the offense has looked so good that Sam Darnold is now the hottest free agent this offseason, while the defense has been a thorn in quarterbacks sides with Flores’ relentless blitzing (Minnesota leads the league in blitz percentage). I don’t necessarily think either of these units are elite but I’m so bullish on O’Connell and Flores that I think they can cook up some of the best game plans for four games and make a run.
Why they won’t
I didn’t mention any metrics for the Vikings above because there aren’t a ton that stand out to me. The offense and defense have both been good but I don’t think either unit is elite. On the defensive side of the ball, the Vikings rank 12th in EPA per play since Week 12 but my concern is that they rank 26th in defensive success rate. As for the offense, I do think Darnold is a little overrated. He’s been much better than expected but ranking 16th and 13th in EPA per dropback and success rate respectively doesn’t give me a ton of hope for a long playoff run. Then add in the fact that he’s 20th and 19th in the same metrics on third and fourth down this year. If the defense takes a step back, I don’t think Darnold is good enough to carry this team through the NFC.
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