The Toronto Blue Jays failed to reach an extension with star first baseman and impending free agent Vladimir Guerrero ahead of his self-imposed deadline earlier this spring. Now, details are starting to surface on what, exactly, the Blue Jays offered and how much far apart that was from Guerrero’s demands.
Guerrero is seeking a contract that runs 14 years and fetches him $500 million in present day value, or about $35.7 million in average annual value, according to The Athletic, The Blue Jays, conversely, were willing to pay him $500 million with significant deferrals that would have reduced the present day value to somewhere between $400 and $450 million, according to the New York Post.
“They had their numbers, I had my numbers,” Guerrero said in February after his self-imposed deadline. “It’s just business, like I always say. Things happen. We’re all good.”
Last month, CBS Sports published an early preview of the upcoming free-agent class. We ranked Guerrero as the top available player, noting that his career numbers to date lined up shockingly well with Miguel Cabrera, the two-time Most Valuable Player Award recipient that he was often compared to during his prospect days. CBS Sports predicted that Guerrero would sign a 12-year contract worth $456 million, a pact that would give him an average annual value of $38 million. Here was our explanation:
Guerrero will be a fascinating case study: the public estimates about his next deal are at odds with the history of how front offices view his general profile (i.e. right-handed first basemen). To wit, Pete Alonso’s $27 million is the richest ever for a free-agent first baseman; Guerrero will make more ($28.5 million) in his final arbitration-eligible season. On top of his skill set and age, his distinction as the closest thing to an elite hitter the market will feature for a few years ought to work in his favor. I assume he’ll become the seventh free-agent hitter to clear a $35 million AAV, and he might soar even higher than that. For now, I’ll err on the conservative side. Prediction: 12 years, $456 million ($38 million AAV)
The Blue Jays had previously submitted an offer to Guerrero worth around $340 million, suggesting they had significantly upped their offer ahead of the deadline in an effort to get a deal done. Alas, Guerrero will now enter his walk year with his eyes on securing some big numbers after the season.
Guerrero, 25, heads into the 2025 season a career .288/.363/.500 (137 OPS+) hitter with 160 home runs and 21.5 Wins Above Replacement.
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