We’re into the college football offseason — albeit only in January — but it’s time to continue NCAA.com’s way-too-early preview of the season. I’ve already revealed way-too-early Heisman contenders and a way-too-early top-25 ranking, but now it’s time for way-too-early College Football Playoff bracket predictions.
The difference between these predictions and the top-25 ranking is that the bracket predictions more heavily weigh the future games to be played on the field, predicting the outcome. That said, let’s take a look at the first bracket projection for the 2025 season.
Top four seeds
My top four seeds are Ohio State, Texas, Clemson and Arizona State — all projected conference champions.
The battle for the No. 1 overall seed comes down to Week 1 when Texas visits Ohio State. It’s early, but the slight advantage goes to Ohio State here since the Buckeyes are at home.
In Big Ten play, Ohio State’s toughest games are road trips to Illinois and Michigan and a home contest against Penn State. Illinois hasn’t beaten Ohio State since 2007, and Penn State has lost eight straight games to the Buckeyes. And eventually, Ohio State and Ryan Day have to beat Michigan right?
Based on the regular season schedule, Ohio State is the safest bet to win the Big Ten.
🌰 CHAMPS: How Ohio State won the 2024 CFP National Championship
Texas comes in as the No. 2 seed after a nonconference loss to Ohio State. Road tests at Florida and Georgia stand out on the schedule, but Texas A&M will be a home game. I think going to the Swamp and getting a win will be the most difficult task of the three games, with Georgia taking a step back after heavy losses to the NFL.
Even with a loss in conference play, the Longhorns should have the best shot in the preseason of any team to make the SEC Championship Game, making them the pick here.
Will Clemson beat LSU to open the season or South Carolina to close the season? I have no idea. However, Clemson is good enough to run the table in the ACC and that should get them the three seed.
If last year showed anything, the Big 12 is the wildest conference in college football. It’s hard to predict this conference winner, but the reigning Big 12 Champion is Arizona State. The Sun Devils return quarterback Sam Leavitt and wide receiver Jordan Tyson, who should help offset the loss of star running back Cam Skattebo. With ASU also avoiding Kansas State and BYU in conference play, the Sun Devils are my pick to win the conference.
📊 TOP-25: Way-too-early college football top 25 rankings for the 2025-26 season
First round home teams
2024 runner-up Notre Dame comes in at No. 5. Even with a more difficult schedule this year, the Fighting Irish still have a great shot to finish with one or fewer losses. Boise State and Miami could take a step back without their Heisman finalists, while Texas A&M, Syracuse and USC are home games. A tougher strength of schedule should get the Fighting Irish into the postseason tournament even if it doesn’t finish unblemished.
Penn State and Oregon grab the six and seven seeds. I think both teams finish with one loss in Big Ten regular season play, but I give the Nittany Lions the advantage over the Ducks at home when they play head-to-head. A Penn State win over Oregon is the difference in seeding here, regardless of which team plays in the Big Ten title game.
The final host of a playoff game right now is Tennessee. The Vols play a favorable SEC schedule, getting Georgia at home. Road trips to Alabama and Florida will be tough, but I think Nico will play better at quarterback this season now that running back Dylan Sampson has gone to the NFL. Tennessee’s defense will have to replace some pieces, but I think this could be the year it all comes together for Josh Heupel and crew.
Way-too-early Heisman contenders for the 2025 college football season
🏆 HEISMAN CONTENDERS: Way-too-early Heisman Trophy contenders for the 2025 season
Last four in
The last four teams in this way-too-early College Football Playoff bracket are 9-seed Illinois, 10-seed LSU and 11-seed Kansas State as at-larges, and 12-seed Navy as the fifth conference champion.
Navy returns quarterback Blake Horvath, and the Midshipmen should be the favorite in the American.
Illinois can be this year’s Indiana, which was the eighth seed in 2024. The toughest games Illinois has will be at Indiana and home against Southern California and Ohio State. With Luke Altmeyer back at quarterback, I see the Illini beating Indiana and USC. A one-loss team from the Big Ten gets into the playoff, especially after a 10-win season.
LSU is the final SEC team in this way-too-early projection, giving the conference three teams to the Big Ten’s four. The Tigers might have the best quarterback in the country with Garrett Nussmeier returning to school, and the nation’s top transfer portal class will have its benefits. The Tigers get Florida, South Carolina and Texas A&M all at home. I think playing in Death Valley against year-two quarterbacks will help LSU win at least two of those games. A season-opener on the road against Clemson is a toss-up for now, but even with a loss to the Tigers, I think LSU still can get in.
Kansas State gets the nod over an SEC team for the last spot for now. The Wildcats return a dynamic backfield with quarterback Avery Johnson and running back Dylan Edwards. Plus, the Big 12 schedule features the four worst teams in the conference from 2024 and five of the bottom seven teams in the conference. Of Kansas State’s five games against teams from the top half of 2024’s Big 12, four games are played at home in Manhattan or at a neutral site.
A favorable schedule gets the Wildcats into the playoffs because they are the safer pick in the offseason.
LAST YEAR: Recapping the first year of the 12-team playoff
First teams out
- South Carolina
- Florida
- SMU
- Michigan
South Carolina is my first team out in this way-too-early projection. I think the Gamecocks could lose games on the road to LSU, Ole Miss or Texas A&M. With a rivalry game against Clemson at the end of the season, that could be three losses across the season for South Carolina — and that’s if they beat Oklahoma and Alabama at home.
Florida is my next team out. The Gators again play one of the most difficult SEC slates, with LSU, Texas, Texas A&M, Georgia, Ole Miss and Tennessee all on the schedule. I think Georgia and Ole Miss will be worse teams than last year, but I would not pick Florida to beat LSU, Texas or Tennessee in the offseason.
Florida and South Carolina should be playoff contenders deep into the season, but like last year, three losses won’t be enough to get into the 12-team playoff.
A glance at the schedules for SMU and Michigan can give hope that either team can make the playoffs. However, I would not be surprised if either team lets a game or two slip against a team with a less talented roster. Even if SMU or Michigan finish with two losses, I don’t think they will make the playoffs.
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