Milwaukee’s Rhys HoskinsStacy Revere/Getty Images
Biggest Unknown: Who wants it the most?
In the first three years of the 12-team postseason format, five of the six divisions have produced at least two wild-card teams. (Not necessarily both in the same year.)
Not the NL Central, though, which has sent only one team each year. That division winner has immediately lost to the No. 6 seed all three times, too.
If the NL Central is once again a race for one playoff berth in 2025, what a theatrical five-way extravaganza it could be.
The Cubs look like the team to beat, but all nine players who appeared in at least 95 games in 2023 posted a worse OPS this season, save for Seiya Suzuki improving from .842 to .848. Even so, they posted a plus-67 run differential and should have won five more games than they did. They’ll have pretty much the whole gang back together again, assuming Cody Bellinger exercises his $27.5 million player option. Can they snag an ace to replace Kyle Hendricks, though?
Could the Brewers run it back again without Willy Adames? Getting Brandon Woodruff back into the mix should be a big help, and they ought to remain elite on defense with Brice Turang at second base and a strong outfield behind him. But replacing Adames’ 112 RBI may be an adventure for a team that usually has a small budget for free agents.
Both the Reds and the Cardinals need pitching. Hunter Greene was awesome for Cincinnati, and Sonny Gray pitched much better for the Cardinals than his 3.84 ERA suggests. However, the rest of those rotations are highly questionable, with most of last winter’s eight-figure acquisitions—Frankie Montas and Nick Martinez for Cincinnati; Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson for St. Louis—likely now out of the picture. Will either team make a big splash?
And after six consecutive seasons with a winning percentage below .470, are the Pirates finally ready to spend/shine? The last time they had a young ace, they surrounded Gerrit Cole with enough talent to make the postseason in three consecutive years. One big upgrade in the lineup could be all they need to get Paul Skenes there.
Our early shot in the dark is Cincinnati, which probably approaches free agency with a fair amount of aggressiveness and could get a lot better just by getting healthy/productive seasons out of Matt McLain, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Noelvi Marte. But there are 120 different orders in which these five teams could finish next season, none of which would be all that surprising.
Other Big Unknowns
- Will Rhys Hoskins exercise his player option and return to Milwaukee? And will Christian Yelich (back surgery) return at full strength?
- Might the Cardinals look to trade Sonny Gray with two years and $65 million left on his contract?
- Can Pirates closer David Bednar rebound from his horrendous 2024 season?
Projected 2025 NL Central Standings
1. Cincinnati Reds (86-76)
2. Chicago Cubs (85-77)
3. Milwaukee Brewers (82-80)
4. St. Louis Cardinals (78-84)
5. Pittsburgh Pirates (74-88)
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