Hope springs eternal at this time of year, as college football teams return to the practice field looking to get a head start on making a run at the 12-team playoff.
In an age of machine learning and instant answers, we wanted to know early on what teams had the most realistic chance of qualifying for the national championship field this season.
College Football HQ turned to Grok with one simple request: Predict the 12 teams that will make the College Football Playoff in 2025.
Here’s what it said. And what we said…
Texas (SEC Champion)
Grok says: “Texas returns quarterback Quinn Ewers or Arch Manning, boasts a top-tier roster bolstered by transfers, and has a favorable early schedule. Their 2024 CFP semifinal run shows they’re built for the SEC title and a top seed.”
College Football HQ says: Well, we know Texas won’t return Quinn Ewers, so that’s a goof on Grok’s part, and Manning’s takeover at QB1 will depend on how well the Longhorns are able to re-engineer his protection after losing some key linemen this offseason.
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Ohio State (Big Ten Champion)
Grok says: “After winning the 2024 national title, Ohio State retains key talent like Jeremiah Smith and a stout defense. Despite quarterback uncertainty, their recruiting and transfer portal dominance make them a lock for the Big Ten crown.”
College Football HQ says: We’ll see how the Buckeyes’ quarterback situation turns out with Julian Sayin expected to succeed Will Howard, but we’re more concerned with that “stout defense” that loses some of its most productive pass rushing capacity.
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Clemson (ACC Champion)
Grok says: “Clemson’s consistency under Dabo Swinney, paired with quarterback Cade Klubnik’s development, positions them to reclaim the ACC. Their 2025 schedule is manageable, and they’re poised to capitalize on a weaker conference.”
College Football HQ says: Klubnik is coming off a personal-best effort last season that helped the Tigers get back to the playoff as ACC champs, which they’re a big favorite to do again, but Swinney still has to patch some holes in his defensive rotation first.
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Arizona State (Big 12 Champion)
Grok says: “The defending 2024 Big 12 champs return quarterback Sam Leavitt and wideout Jordan Tyson. Avoiding Kansas State and BYU in conference play gives them an edge in the unpredictable Big 12.”
College Football HQ says: Jordan Tyson’s return at wideout is crucial as Leavitt takes over the Sun Devils’ offense as Cam Skattebo departs the program. Tyson went over 1,000 yards receiving and will be critical for this team to return to the Big 12 title game.
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Boise State (Group of Five Champion)
Grok says: “Nearly half of early projections favor Boise State to repeat as a Group of Five champ despite losing Ashton Jeanty. Their system and coaching under Spencer Danielson keep them atop the Mountain West.”
College Football HQ says: Jeanty’s loss will cut into the Broncos’ offensive production, but otherwise there’s plenty of returning production coming back in tandem with quarterback Maddux Madsen. Early games at USF and at Notre Dame will be major litmus tests.
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Read More: Grok predicts college football’s 10 best teams in 2025
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Georgia (At-Large)
Grok says: “Kirby Smart’s squad reloads with elite recruiting, even with quarterback Carson Beck gone. Their tough SEC schedule might cost them the title, but a 10-2 or 11-1 record ensures an at-large bid.”
College Football HQ says: Grok is going with a rerun of last year’s SEC Championship Game, but with a different result, casting some doubt on the ability of Gunner Stockton to convincingly replace Beck’s production and get through what will be a difficult slate, but a lot of those harder games are at home.
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Oregon (At-Large)
Grok says: “In their second Big Ten year, Oregon’s talent under Dan Lanning—led by quarterback Dillon Gabriel’s successor—keeps them playoff-bound. They may not win the conference but should rank high enough for an at-large spot.”
College Football HQ says: Personnel losses, especially at quarterback, have the Ducks slipping in some Big Ten preseason rankings, but they can still win this conference behind some able transfer additions and young signal caller Dante Moore.
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Penn State (At-Large)
Grok says: “With Drew Allar back and a strong defense, Penn State builds on their 2024 CFP run. They’re a near-lock for 10+ wins, securing an at-large bid even if Ohio State takes the Big Ten.”
College Football HQ says: Abdul Carter is gone from this defense, depriving the Nittany Lions a potent weapon in the pass rush, but the return of its offensive core with Drew Allar at quarterback and Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen in the backfield, this team could make a run at the Big Ten title again easily.
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Notre Dame (At-Large)
Grok says: “As an independent, Notre Dame’s 2024 title game appearance and Marcus Freeman’s momentum carry over. A tough schedule (e.g., Miami, Alabama) won’t derail a 10-2 season and a playoff spot.”
College Football HQ says: Alabama isn’t actually on Notre Dame’s schedule this year, so that’s another Grok gaffe, but the Irish do play another SEC opponent, when they host Texas A&M to South Bend in what will be a major barometer for the selection committee to consider.
LSU (At-Large)
Grok says: “Brian Kelly’s Tigers return quarterback Garrett Nussmeier and a top transfer class. A softer 2025 SEC slate (hosting Tennessee, LSU, Oklahoma) makes 10 wins and an at-large bid realistic.”
College Football HQ says: Nussmeier and some elite skill targets should keep LSU atop the nation’s passing stat charts, but the jury’s still out on whether Blake Baker can get more out of a defense that failed to take a noticeable step a year ago.
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Alabama (At-Large)
Grok says: “Kalen DeBoer’s second year brings stability with a No. 4-ranked recruiting class and a quarterback solution (Ty Simpson or Keelon Russell). Their schedule strength ensures a high ranking despite not winning the SEC.”
College Football HQ says: That “quarterback solution” is yet to be solved, and it’s one of the most enticing stories in college football this preseason as the Tide look to replace the dynamic Jalen Milroe. Simpson was a former five-star prospect, and he’ll have a chance to prove that potential with Ryan Williams back at receiver.
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Kansas State (At-Large)
Grok says: “With quarterback Avery Johnson and a balanced attack, Kansas State could miss the Big 12 title but still hit 10 wins. Their consistency in a volatile conference earns an at-large nod.”
College Football HQ says: We took a chance on the Wildcats at the top of our Big 12 power rankings thanks to the return of Johnson under center, but especially returning tailback Dylan Edwards, who had a monster showing in the bowl game to end last season.
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