What Could The Padres Expect For Dylan Cease?

The Padres have yet to make a significant move this offseason. San Diego hasn’t made a single major league free agent or trade acquisition. It’s clear they’re hamstrung financially. The complaint filed by Peter Seidler’s widow against the late owner’s brothers only adds to the overall organizational uncertainty.

If San Diego is going to make any upgrades of note, they’ll need to first offload some money. It seems the Padres intend to get below the $241MM luxury tax threshold. RosterResource calculates their CBT number around $244MM. There are a few ways they could try to accomplish that. The ideal scenario would be to offload some of the money owed to Xander Bogaerts or Jake Cronenworth, but trading an underwater deal isn’t easy. San Diego could move Luis Arraez but seems to want more value in return than other teams are willing to offer.

As a result, Dylan Cease has been at the periphery of offseason trade rumors. Reporting at the Winter Meetings suggested that the right-hander was available. There hasn’t been any indication that they’ve moved close to a deal in the past month. It seems they’re mostly status quo. ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote this week that the Padres have been willing to hear other teams out on Cease, though he doesn’t suggest that San Diego is actively shopping him.

Unlike Bogaerts, Arraez and Cronenworth, Cease holds immense trade value. The Padres could demand a significant package while offloading his entire salary. They’d need to weigh that against subtracting arguably their best starter from a rotation that comprises Cease, Michael King, Yu Darvish and a host of question marks.

If the Padres decide they’re motivated to move Cease within the next two months, what kind of return should they expect? A few trades over the past two offseasons provide some indications about how the market could value him.

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