What could Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s extension with Blue Jays mean for the Mets’ Pete Alonso?

NEW YORK — From Pete Alonso’s perspective, any focus on his contract situation would be a disservice — his words — to the New York Mets because the season is underway. But, yes, certainly Alonso holds enough awareness of the reported extension between the Toronto Blue Jays and first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to recite the large numbers himself: 14 years, $500 million. Alonso, in his earnest way, called the deal a “sick contract.”

Alonso, 30, holds a player option after this season worth $24 million. The two-year deal ($54 million) he signed just before spring training to stick with the Mets was designed for him to opt out. With Guerrero, 26, coming off the market, Alonso is set to headline the first basemen in free agency again.

“This is huge for first basemen,” Alonso said. “Half a billion dollars, it’s a huge, huge amount. For him, it’s a fantastic deal. It’s great for the first-base market, I think. I mean, 14 years — he’s a stud. Well deservedly so. Right now, you can’t think of the Toronto Blue Jays without Vlad Jr. He’s done some really amazing things in this league and for that team. Super well deserved.”

The first-base market had been stagnant for more than a decade. From 2012 to 2014, four different first basemen (Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto and Prince Fielder) signed deals that totaled more than $200 million. None signed a deal that large over the next decade, with Matt Olson’s eight-year, $168 million extension with Atlanta the largest guarantee in that time. (Freddie Freeman’s six-year, $162 million contract with Los Angeles was the largest signed in free agency.)

Guerrero’s deal resets that market. Even when adjusting for inflation, it includes the second-largest AAV for a first baseman, behind only Cabrera’s eight-year extension with the Tigers. And it puts Guerrero clearly ahead of the second tier of first-base contracts by AAV and by contract length, even when he’s at the back of that group by recent production.

And so the Guerrero deal gives Alonso a more appealing data point to peg to — the same way Juan Soto’s enormous contract with the Mets worked as a peg for Guerrero. Guerrero couldn’t say he was a direct comparison for Soto, but he could argue he was basically two-thirds as good — a guy who posts 5.5-win seasons compared to 8.0-win seasons. And he ended up with two-thirds of the contract.

Alonso can’t put himself right next to Guerrero in production or age. Any deal he signs is going to be far shorter, of course. But he has accumulated about 90 percent of the wins above replacement that Guerrero has over the past three seasons, and he can make that case stronger with a better season in 2025 than he’s had in the last two.

All told, it’s easier for Alonso to argue for “90 percent of what Guerrero got” — or about $32 million or more per season — than it was for him last winter to argue for more money than players like Freeman, Goldschmidt and Fielder had received despite their better track records.

Alonso is off to a strong start in 2025, picking up where he left off in the postseason. Through his first 38 plate appearances, Alonso has a 1.066 OPS and three home runs. He looks like a more patient hitter with a more consistent swing — two major goals he discussed in spring training.

“We’ve seen over the years here that when Pete gets going, he can carry a team,” Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns told reporters Monday in a regularly scheduled news conference. “It’s been fun to see him hit some enormous home runs. I think he has enjoyed it. Hopefully it has allowed him to take a little bit of a deep breath. He’s earned it. He loves playing here. Our fans love watching him. And he’s been a huge part of our wins so far this season.”

It is rare for Scott Boras’ clients to forgo free agency. Before the season, owner Steve Cohen, while appearing on the team’s podcast, said, “I hope Pete has a tremendous season. That’ll be great for the Mets. Certainly, great for him. Hopefully, that means we can figure out a way to extend the arrangement. We’ll worry about it when we worry about it. But right now, we’re focused on the ’25 season.”

Alonso said he is not “completely shut down” from having any talks with the Mets and that “Scott’s phone is always on,” but reiterated that he is focused on playing. And the Mets have not showcased anything near the urgency the Blue Jays displayed to prevent Guerrero from hitting the open market.

“We’re open to it, but my focus right now is doing what I can to help win tonight,” Alonso said ahead of the Mets’ game against the Miami Marlins on Monday. “Obviously, if something happens, then I am sure Scott and Steve or David will talk about it, but my job is to focus and lock in on the season, and win. That’s really all it is. If something happens, then, whatever, but if not then no big deal because this is ball time. We are trying to win ballgames right now.”

(Photo of Pete Alonso and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. from 2019: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)

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