What Saquon Barkley’s retirement talk means for his fantasy football stock

Saquon Barkley is coming off his most prolific rushing season ever, flaunting a Super Bowl ring, and preparing for another season behind one of the NFL’s best offensive lines. But for all of the recent dominance, there’s also been recent talk of future concerns around the Eagles running back who finished as fantasy’s second-highest scorer (PPR) at the position in 2024. And it starts with the specter of a sudden end to his NFL career.

In the most recent edition of the “Green Light with Chris Long,” Long asked Barkley if he would retire when playing at the highest level or if he would go “until the wheels fall off.”

Barkley’s answer: “That’s a great question. I’ll probably be one of those guys that it would be out of nowhere. I would probably just wake up one day, whether it’s next year or two years or four years, and just be like, ‘Yeah, it’s over.’”

Perhaps most alarming for fantasy managers rostering Barkley in dynasty formats was this quote: “One of my favorite players of all time, probably my favorite player of all time, is Barry Sanders, so probably similar to that. Maybe one day it will be out of nowhere. I’ll probably be ballin’ and just be like, ‘Yeah,’ and call it quits.”

That answer, along with some alarming historical context around his 2024 workload, raises an immediate question: What is Saquon Barkley’s future value for fantasy managers?

How you define “future” varies based on your fantasy format. But even re-draft league managers should weigh what hitting the 400-carry mark last season (across the regular season and playoffs) means for the coming campaign.

Earlier this week, The Athletic’s Jim Ayello detailed why that workload suggests Barkley shouldn’t go in the first round of 2025 fantasy football drafts. Barkley’s 2024 volume (482 touches) puts him in some impressive — and simultaneously dubious — company. Of the 11 other RBs since 2000 with 400+ carries in a single season, none of them finished better than RB15 the following season. Not Derrick Henry, not Jamal Lewis, not Shaun Alexander. None. Of. Them.

That evidence should impact redraft and keeper evaluations, but it is also the tip of the iceberg for any calculations about Barkley’s value in dynasty formats. And it should probably prompt dynasty managers to put out feelers for trade options ahead of the 2025 season.

On March 7 of this year, the Eagles agreed to extend Barkley’s contract another two years with $36 million in guaranteed money. It would be a surprise if Barkley walked away from that voluntarily, barring unforeseen circumstances. But given history suggests 2025 may be a down year relative to his current value and 2026 could (emphasis on could) be his last season (there’s an option on his contract and a whole lot of dead money if it’s triggered), this seems like a ripe moment for Barkley’s dynasty managers to weigh whether it’s worth punching out before his value dips … or plummets to zero via a sudden retirement.

Barkley is already 28 years old, and heading into the 2026-27 season, he’ll be 29. In 2024, Barkley finished as RB2 (PPR, RB1 in Half PPR) with 355.3 points on 345 carries for 2,005 yards and 33 receptions for 278 yards during the regular season. Per TruMedia, since 2014, only four running backs at or over the age of 28 have finished with a PPR total above 300 points. (FWIW, one was Derrick Henry last season at age 30 with 336.4.) Only 24 in that age group finished with over 200 PPR points in the past 10 seasons. Betting on Barkley to fall in that group over 200 points, more or less 300, isn’t unreasonable given his abilities, but it would also put him in a very small minority, even among formerly elite RBs.

The fantasy impact

After Barkley’s comments to Long, The Athletic Senior Fantasy Writer Jake Ciely dropped Barkley from No. 12 to No. 27 in his overall dynasty rankings. His drop in the RB market was less dramatic, moving from RB4 to RB6.

If you have Barkley rostered in a dynasty league, based on his interview with Long, Ayello’s data and Ciely’s outlook, it might be time to trade him before others catch on. Dynasty analyst Jeff Haverlack said, “The case for Barkley is simple. If you are competing, you’re either holding or buying. If you are rebuilding, or soon will be, it’s time to distribute him. In the case of the latter, the last thing you want to do is hold the asset, raise your team to mediocre status, and, thus, lose draft capital. Be the best or be the worst, don’t be mediocre. For reference, his trade value is currently a very high first-round rookie selection, in the neighborhood of 1.02.”

In terms of veteran return value, based on Ciely’s dynasty rankings, if you need a long-term RB, think De’Von Achane (No. 4 RB) or Bucky Irving (No. 5 RB). Otherwise, WRs Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., Amon-Ra St. Brown and even Jaxon Smith-Njigba are solid options. All of those WRs are now ranked higher than Barkley in Ciely’s dynasty ranks.

After a poor performance in 2024, Marvin Harrison Jr., who is expected to have a long career as a WR1, should get a look. You may even be able to pair him with a flier like Jonathon Brooks (for those interested in the long game).

Savvy managers or win-now teams can use this opportunity to buy low. If a manager with Barkley on their roster is panicking and willing to trade for less than the name or value suggested, acquiring him at a discount is another smart move.

(Photo of Saquon Barkley: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)