The 2024 World Series started on Friday. In three games over four days, what was once seen as a match-up for the ages has turned into a lopsided affair for the Los Angeles Dodgers. The New York Yankees have dug themselves a hole historically impossible to dig out of. If they want to avoid being swept – let alone any reasonable shot at winning the World Series – here’s what has to happen.
Maybe the National League is just that much better. Maybe, the Yankees’ route to the Fall Classic through two AL Central teams in the Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Guardians was softer than the Dodgers going through the San Diego Padres and New York Mets.
All that is history. Now is now.
The hole the Yankees find themselves in is monumental: of the 24 times that a team has found themselves in a 0-3 hole in the World Series, 21 times it has resulted in a sweep. Three times it has gotten to a Game 5. No team has made it to a Game 6 let alone a Game 7.
For the Yankees to avoid being swept here’s what they have to do.
Game 4 Is a Bullpen Game For The Dodgers
Starting pitching was supposed to be the weak spot for the Dodgers, but they’ve strung together strong outings from Jack Flaherty in Game 1 (5.1 IP, 3.38 ERA, 5 H, 2 ER, 6 SO, 1 BB), Yoshinobu Yamamoto in Game 2 (6.1 IP, 1.42 ERA, 1 H, 1 ER, 4 SO, 2 BB), and Walker Buehler on Monday night (5.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 2 H, 0 ER, 5 SO, 2 BB) has put the Yankees up against the wall.
On Tuesday, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts will (yet again) go with a bullpen game. On paper, this should be the easiest game for the Yankees to get their cold bats going. It isn’t as easy as it could have been (allowing Buehler to get deeper into Game 3 meant Roberts didn’t need to rely on his best bullpen arms in high-leverage situations), but at this stage the Yankees need something – anything – to get turned around.
Aaron Judge Needs To Stop Pressing
The harshest glare for the Yankees line-up has been on Aaron Judge. The man that will assuredly win the AL MVP has been a shadow of his former self at the plate going just 1-12 over three games with 1 walk and an abysmal 7 strikeouts. His chase rate has ballooned over the course of the postseason, increasing from career-low 17.7% during the regular season to 21.3% against the Royals, 33.3% against the Guardians to 35.3% over the three games of the World Series against the Dodgers.
The pressure from the national media, New York press, and fans has to be unrelenting at this point for Judge. He has to fight the urge to press. The increased chase rate is turning into strikeouts that the Yankees can ill-afford. Judge is in the lineup for power, but his ability to strike fear in opposing pitchers produced a league-leading 133 walks during the regular season, which set the table for others behind him to push him across the plate. How many walks does Judge have during the World Series? Exactly 1. That’s a sign that instead of pitching around him, they Dodgers are going straight after him.
Judge needs to focus on Game 4. Nothing more. Stop pressing. Get into an offensive rhythm, at best. Get pitchers to induce walks, at worst. A .154 OBP is problem #1 for Judge and the Yankees.
When Does Aaron Boone Get Emotions Going?
A fiery manager is a delicate highwire act in the postseason. Getting ejected is something to avoid until it isn’t and Yankees manager Aaron Boone needed to pull that trigger in Game 3.
Home plate umpire Mark Carlson wasn’t the best in Game 3 with his balls and strikes calls. With 2 outs and runners on 1st and 2nd in the bottom of the 7th, Carlson rung up Gleyber Torres on a pitch out of the strike zone.
With the game in later innings, Boone needed to get fired up and come out of the dugout. At that stage, an ejection late in the game comes with less damage than a Yankees lineup that has all the energy of a 15-watt light bulb. Boone needs to provide a spark. It’s obvious that Game 4 is now or never. Mangers have to manage.
The Yankees Have To Channel The 2004 Red Sox
The Yankees aren’t going to get Dave Roberts to give them a pep talk, but in a case of incredible irony, the Bronx Bombers have to channel the 2004 Boston Red Sox in the ALCS. It’s not just that the Red Sox dug themselves out of a 0-3 hole to come back and win four straight games to advance to the World Series, it was how they did it.
David Ortiz, a huge factor in that historic 2004 comeback, said what anyone who looked into the Yankees dugout could see in Game 3 last night: body language shows a team deflated and defeated. That 2004 “Cowboy Up” Red Sox team was loose acting as if they somehow had the advantage even though they were down 0-3.
Someone – anyone – has to channel Kevin Millar. Because, if the Yankees take the mindset that if they win the Game 4 bullpen game, they get Gerritt Cole as the starter for Game 5, which gives them their ace and a chance to get to Game 6 back in LA.
Besides Judge, Where Is Everyone Else, Minus Stanton?
The Yankees have scored just 7 runs over the three games of the World Series. Of those, 3 have come from Giancarlo Stanton. Two of them came by way of a 9th inning, 2 out home run by Alex Verdugo in Game 3 that made the 4-2 Dodgers win look closer than it really was.
Collectively, the Yankees are an abysmal .186 as a team compared to .248 in the regular season. What’s worse, they are over 200 points down compared to the regular season in OPS (World Series is .579 while the regular season was .761).
Yes, the Dodgers have seen Freddie Freeman do Herculean things, but for the Yankees to avoid the sweep, others besides Stanton need to step up, and that’s beyond just Judge. Yes, Judge needs to get on base but to live another day, it’s going to fall on others to lift the load.
Jazz Chisolm is 3-13 at the plate. Torres is 2-11. Verdugo is 2-10. Volpe is 1-12. Soto, a key free agent in the offseason, is hitting .300, but has 1 home run. At least he hasn’t struck out and has 3 walks.
The Yankees have been built around getting runners on base and slugging their way into wins, ranking #4 during the regular season. Yes, the Dodgers ranked #1 in that department, and are relentless top-to-bottom, but this is about one game. This game. Game 4. That’s it for now.
There will be soul-searching in the offseason for the Yankees. Only the most overly optimistic fan sees the Yankees winning the World Series at this stage. What we’re talking about now is avoiding total embarrassment of being swept. That happens and would anyone be surprised if Aaron Boone and/or Brian Cashman get fired?
Today is the day, for the Yankees. There are no others. It’s Game 4 Or Bust for more than just the right to live another day.
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