What we learned at NFL combine: Stafford trade talks a reflection on shaky QB draft class

INDIANAPOLIS — After speaking with numerous teams and league sources throughout last week at the NFL Scouting Combine, here’s a rundown of some notable things we’re hearing about the upcoming NFL Draft and free agency, which begins next week:

The Stafford tell

Quarterback Matthew Stafford’s return to the Los Angeles Rams didn’t come as a surprise to many around the league who didn’t understand the logic behind the rumored trades, but the development was nonetheless important.

It spotlighted some QB-needy teams’ preference for a proven veteran quarterback over what seems to be a shaky draft class. League evaluators are down on the QB class to the point where many high-ranking personnel executives have top prospects Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders ranked below all six first-round quarterbacks picked in 2024.

For the Las Vegas Raiders, what will be minority owner Tom Brady’s tolerance for substandard QB play? And for the New York Giants, the job security of general manager Joe Schoen and head coach Brian Daboll likely hinges on finding a solution at quarterback and subsequently maximizing that player’s performance on the field immediately.

Stafford, even at 37, represented that quick solution, and he’s more of a sure thing right now than available veterans such as Aaron Rodgers, Sam Darnold, Kirk Cousins and Russell Wilson. Plus, there’s a hidden danger in whiffing on a first-round QB in April — it also may take teams out of the running from a more highly coveted class in 2026.

To the root of it, though, teams strongly believed Stafford wanted to explore his market to gain leverage in his negotiations with the Rams — far more than wanting out. Obviously, the leverage play worked. But short of finding an offer of $60 million from another team, why would he want to join a rebuild at this stage of his career, especially after it took him so long to experience postseason success?

After getting back to the playoffs, why would the Rams opt to start over at quarterback? It would make sense if they could’ve turned Stafford into a first-round pick — either a top-10 selection this year or a first-rounder in 2026 — but it’s hard to believe a rebuilding team would pay such a price, on top of the contractual cost, for a QB at that age.

While having these barroom-style debates with coaches and executives, there simply wasn’t a scenario where Stafford, the Rams and the acquiring team would’ve all felt like winners in such a trade, which is why Stafford isn’t going anywhere.

So, what’s next?

It still sounds like Ward has an edge as the top QB in the class, and has believers within the Tennessee Titans, who have the No. 1 pick.

There’s still a cloudy forecast with how this will play out, though, because there’s so much QB desperation with teams at the top of the draft. Teams could be more motivated to trade up if they don’t find their answer in free agency. Conversely, one team near the top of the draft noted that while it is in the QB market, that doesn’t mean it won’t be more comfortable with the wave of players who will be available in the second round.

Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart is a name to watch. Teams believed Dart solidified himself as a first-rounder during his week at the Senior Bowl. And last week at the combine, two teams strongly believed Dart would be taken in the top half of the opening round.

Alabama’s Jalen Milroe, Syracuse’s Kyle McCord, Texas’ Quinn Ewers, Louisville’s Tyler Shough, Ohio State’s Will Howard and Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel all have intriguing qualities. Teams have varying opinions over each, but there’s a project prospect for everyone in the market.

Milroe appears to have the highest ceiling among that tier. When he plays with confidence, he makes quicker decisions — as a passer and runner — and pops on tape. His performance against Georgia tantalized evaluators. But there were too many occasions when Milroe was too sped up, sometimes getting himself stuck in the pocket, and looking like a longer-developing project.

But if there’s a team that gets it right with the Milroe plan, he’s viewed as the prospect who would make teams want to kick themselves years from now.

Big Buff Hunter

Colorado cornerback/receiver Travis Hunter is the most electric prospect in the class, and teams are still split on how to use him.

The most popular opinion has been to play him as a full-time cornerback who can be used as a part-time wideout, perhaps up to 15 plays per game. Hunter can be a true No. 1 option at either position, but it’s not feasible to give him a full workload on both sides of the ball — even if that’s what he wants.

Teams recognize it’s more difficult for a cornerback to get into the rhythm of the game while being used on a rotational basis. Top corners need to get a feel for tendencies and the offense’s attack strategy to be at their best. All the while, it’s easier to practice a handful of packages at receiver throughout the week before making an impact on Sundays.

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That’s the other thing. It’s not just a grind of game day but the workload during practices. On a related note, a couple of teams thought Hunter was still only scratching the surface with his development because Colorado had to preserve him at practice throughout the season to keep him as fresh as possible for games.

To Hunter’s credit, he hasn’t made any positional demands with teams. He’s told them to simply draft him, and he’ll do whatever they need.

“Just get him in the building,” an evaluator said. “If you can’t figure out how to use him … ”

Consider the financial impact of Hunter’s approach. The five highest-earning receivers are playing on contracts worth $32.2 million per year, while the five top-earning corners are at $21.9 million.

Hunter is talented enough that he could justify sticking to offense and having a far more lucrative career, but he’s committed to being a two-way player, regardless of how teams choose to divvy up his snap count. That aligns with the scouting report on Hunter, who has a rock-solid reputation as a leader and person off the field.

If Hunter isn’t the first pick, he’ll draw serious consideration from the Cleveland Browns at No. 2, according to league sources.

Financial gymnastics

A common question from teams at the combine: What are the Bengals doing?

Wide receiver Tee Higgins would almost certainly be worth at least $30 million annually in free agency, and the Bengals have until Tuesday to determine whether they’ll use the franchise tag on him for a second consecutive year. That would be worth $26.2 million.

All the while, of course, superstar wideout Ja’Marr Chase will eventually leapfrog Justin Jefferson’s $35 million benchmark, perhaps even becoming the first to crack the $40 million barrier. And, oh by the way, they also have quarterback Joe Burrow earning $55 million per year, and pass rusher Trey Hendrickson wants a new deal.

It would be an unprecedented move to pay both Chase and Higgins.

The Philadelphia Eagles (A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith) and Miami Dolphins (Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle) are the only teams with two receivers earning at least $25 million annually. It’s worked out splendidly for the Eagles, whose front office is universally lauded for its cap management, but the Dolphins have yet to win a playoff game with this model.

Reduce the benchmark to $20 million annually, and the San Francisco 49ers (Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel), Chicago Bears (D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen), Houston Texans (Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Mike Evans and Chris Godwin) were the only other teams that went through 2024 with that roster dynamic. They combined for one playoff win.

The Niners just traded Samuel to the Washington Commanders (who will form a highly priced duo with Terry McLaurin) because they needed a cap reset. Diggs and Allen, about to hit free agency, were acquired last year, so we’re about to find out how the Texans and Bears felt about that financial setup. And keep in mind, the 49ers, Bears, Texans and Commanders have QBs on rookie contracts, while Baker Mayfield has greatly outperformed his deal.

So again, what are the Bengals doing? They just got a Herculean season out of Burrow — with the help of Chase and Higgins — but missed the playoffs because their offensive line and defense had major issues. It will take a monumental performance in the draft to fix those problems while doling out historic receiver contracts.

There’s a lot of attention on Cincinnati from around the league.

Receiver options dwindling

It doesn’t sound likely the Seattle Seahawks would make wideout DK Metcalf available in a trade.

Metcalf is entering the final season of his three-year, $72 million pact, so there’s been speculation he could be dealt. But the Seahawks have had a winning record in three consecutive seasons, albeit with an 0-1 mark in the playoffs during that stretch. It doesn’t make sense to trim one of their best players.

Now, things could always change during contract negotiations. But, at the moment, the New England Patriots and others who are trying to get creative at wideout will have to focus their attention elsewhere.

Star clone

Penn State linebacker Abdul Carter has drawn obvious comparisons to former Nittany Lions star Micah Parsons, who went 12th to the Dallas Cowboys in 2021.

Carter, a candidate for the No. 1 pick, has some subtle differences in his evaluation. Carter is viewed as the more instinctive player, according to evaluators, though he isn’t as explosive as Parsons.

Parsons sat out the 2020 season, so there was some risk with his evaluation. Carter has been the more consistent on-field performer, and one coach thought Carter’s upward trajectory could lead to an incredible NFL career, assuming the trend continues.

There are subtle differences to their styles, but there’s a strong belief Carter can join Parsons among the list of the league’s elite defenders in short order.

(Photo: Joe Scarnici / Getty Images)

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