Where Tennessee basketball sits in first ESPN bracketology for 2026

With the transfer portal window closed and a good bit of transfers announcing their next home, it’s becoming increasingly easier to project what next year’s college basketball season will look like.

As a result, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi weighed in with his first bracketology of the offseason.

Here’s where Tennessee lands.

TALK ABOUT IT IN THE ROCKY TOP FORUM

Tennessee comes in as a 3-seed in the first projection of the NCAA Tournament. This comes after the Vols earned a 2-seed in consecutive years.

This places Tennessee against 14-seed McNeese in the opening round in this projection. The winner of that game would play the winner between 6-seed Gonzaga and 11-seed VCU. These games would be played in Greenville, South Carolina.

As a part of the West Region played in Jose, the Vols would likely meet 2-seed Michigan, 7-seed Kansas or 10-seed Miami if it made it to a fourth-straight Sweet 16.

Other likely opponents for an Elite Eight bout are 1-seed Houston in a rematch of last year’s game for a spot in the Final Four, 4-seed UCLA and 5-seed Arkansas.

Tennessee is tied for being projected as the second-highest seed in the SEC with Florida. The highest mark goes to 2-seed Kentucky.

Tennessee is losing a good bit to expired eligibility but does return some key pieces.

The lone returning starter is Felix Okpara. The center started his career at Ohio State before transferring in prior to last season. He started every game of the season that resulted in the Elite Eight run.

The other returning piece to see action on a game-by-game basis is Cade Phillips. The forward enters his junior year after playing a sizable role off the bench as a sophomore.

J.P. Estrella also returns as a redshirt sophomore. He was projected to play a role off the bench last season before a foot injury shut him down for the season.

Coming off his true freshman year, former four-star guard Bishop Boswell is also returning. He saw varying degrees of minutes throughout his first season with the Vols.

While there are no impactful transfers leaving the Vols, they are losing a lot of their production from a year ago.

This starts with two-time SEC Defensive Player of the Year, Zakai Zeigler. The Tennessee point guard had an illustrious four years in Knoxville but is now out of eligibility. He started in all the games he played in this past season while missing one due to injury.

Also leaving is Jerry West Award winner and the single-season 3-point king, Chaz Lanier. He transferred in from North Florida for his final season of eligibility and started every game of the season.

Jahmai Mashack is also out of eligibility. The Field of 68 National Defensive Player of the Year played all four seasons with the Vols. He started every game last season.

The final starter not eligibile to return is Igor Milicic Jr. He transferred in from Charlotte after spending two years there and one at Virginia. He started in every game he appeared in but missed one due to illness.

Six-man Jordan Gainey also can’t return. He was the first spark off the bench but did start the game Zeigler was unable to play in. He began his career at USC Upstate but played his final two in Knoxville.

Darlinstone Dubar is the final member unable to return. He was a piece off the bench that was called on during the NCAA Tournament. He played at Iowa State and Hofstra before his final season was spent with Tennessee.

Tennessee has already signed a trio of transfers. Maryland guard Ja’Kobi Gillespie joins as an in-state prospect. He is projected to start at point guard. He also played at Belmont.

The Vols also bring in Vanderbilt forward Jaylen Carey. He previously spent time at JMU, as well. He will have the chance to earn the starting power forward spot.

Tennessee has also picked up a shooting guard. The Vols landed a signing from Louisiana Tech’s Amaree Abram who has also played at Ole Miss and Georgia Tech.

Tennessee also has four freshmen signed to join. The headliner is five-star Nate Ament. As the No. 4 recruit in the class, he is likely going to start right away as the team’s small forward despite his height being listed as 6-foot-9.

The Vols also bring in four-star wing Amari Evans. He is known for his defense and is a prototypical Rick Barnes player.

At forward, Tennessee signed three-star DeWayne Brown II out of Hoover, Alabama. The Vols also have signings from unranked point guard Troy Henderson and wing Clarence Massamba.