We’re using the average TRACR for each conference to determine which league is the strongest in the early portion of the conference slate. And some of the rankings might surprise you.
It’s the time for multiple matchups between excellent teams vying for conference championships every week.
Yep, conference play has arrived.
This week, we’ve already seen Florida run previously unbeaten Tennessee out of the gym, Michigan dismantle UCLA and Texas A&M edge Oklahoma. There are so many good games during conference play, it’s hard to watch them all.
So, which conferences are worth watching the most if you’re interested in the best teams in the country? And which of the big conferences are having a down year?
To answer that question, we’ve used TRACR, our net efficiency metric that evaluates team strength based on points per possession. By checking the average TRACR rating of each conference, we can determine which is the best from top to bottom.
For context, Houston is (as of Friday) No. 1 in TRACR with a 54.35 overall rating.
1. SEC (Average TRACR: 32.47)
Forget the past, the SEC is a basketball conference now.
The SEC is one of only two conferences with three top-10 teams according to TRACR and Alabama (11th) and Texas A&M (12th) are knocking on the door of the top 10 as well.
Even before Tennessee’s blowout loss to Florida, TRACR thought Auburn was the class of the conference, and it still has Auburn as the best offensive team in the country and third-best team overall. But Florida has risen all the way to sixth in the country on the back of the big win against Tennessee, which has fallen to 10th.
2024-25 Men’s Leaders in Offensive TRACR
The SEC isn’t just good at the top, though. Every team in the conference is ranked inside the top 70, which is easily better than any other conference in America. With the deepest pool of elite teams and the deepest pool of average teams, the SEC holds the belt for best conference in the NCAA right now.
2. Big Ten (Average TRACR: 28.83)
The AP rankings would suggest the Big Ten is a fairly deep conference with no elite teams, but TRACR thinks the poll is sleeping on two teams as real title contenders.
Illinois is ranked 13th in the AP poll, but fourth in TRACR and has been on a tear recently. The Illini have arguably the best win in the country with a 32-point road rout of Oregon and have followed that up with a road win against Washington and a 29-point home win over Penn State. The team features balance on both sides of the ball and an exciting freshman rising up NBA Draft boards in Kasparas Jakucionis.
Michigan is even more underrated by the polls, ranked 24th by the AP despite being fifth in TRACR. It’s easy to see why Michigan would be a team that was thought of more favorably by a model that takes margin of victory into account. The Wolverines have 10 wins by double digits and their three losses are by a combined five points. Heartbreakers still count as losses, but the fact that Michigan has been competitive in every game bodes well in the long run. With a 4-0 start in conference play, Michigan is poised to challenge for the Big Ten crown and possibly more this season.
The Big Ten has depth, too, with seven top-25 TRACR teams and 13 of its 18 teams in the top 50. Minnesota (115th) is the only team in the conference ranked outside the top 80 heading into the weekend.
3. Big 12 (Average TRACR: 28.45)
The Big 12 is neck-and-neck with the Big Ten for the second-best conference in the country, but the shape of its production is much different.
Whereas the Big Ten is good at the top and deep throughout, the Big 12 is a conference of the haves and have-nots.
The haves start with the top team in the country in Houston, which also rates as the best defensive team nationally. Houston does have three losses, but all were by five or less points against quality teams. The Cougars do need to prove they can consistently win close games against the best teams on their schedule, but blowout wins over Texas A&M and BYU are impressive. And all 11 of Houston’s wins have been by double digits.
Winning the Big 12 won’t be easy, though, with Kansas (No. 7), Arizona (No. 8) and Iowa State (No. 9) all in the top 10 and Texas Tech (13th) and Baylor (14th) rounding out the elite teams in the conference.
That’s where the first line of demarcation is in the Big 12. Then, there are five teams in the conference rated between 40 and 70, then another big gap, followed by five teams rated between 80 and 110. Even early in conference play, it’s easy to rank the Big 12 in tiers. The top tier is as good as any other conference, but the bottom tier is bad enough to ensure the Big 12 only gets the bronze medal for now.
4. Big East (Average TRACR: 22.05)
The next few conferences aren’t as close to each other as the top three conferences are, with the Big East comfortably behind the Big 12 and ahead of the next conference.
The Big East has good depth, with eight of its 11 teams in the top 80. The best teams are a step below some other conferences, though, as TRACR isn’t as high on Marquette (16th) as the AP Poll, where the Golden Eagles are seventh. Marquette still ranks as the best in the Big East, though, eight spots ahead of St. John’s at 24, and features three of the top 12 players in our new college basketball WAR rankings.
Villanova (25th) and UConn (29th) both rank inside the top 30 and could contend for a conference title. Any other team in the conference would need a lot of improvement to challenge Marquette or St John’s, though.
Overall, there is good depth in the Big East, but the lack of top-end squads keeps it from competing with the SEC, Big Ten or Big 12.
5. ACC (Average TRACR: 17.89)
This is the most shocking conference ranking, particularly when you factor in how much TRACR has loved Duke all year.
Duke currently sits second in TRACR, with the seventh-ranked offense and second-ranked defense. The Blue Devils look every bit the part of a title contender with Cooper Flagg rounding into form as predicted. He’s up to fourth in the country in WAR.
Beyond that, though, TRACR is not a fan of the ACC, with no other teams in the conference ranked in the top 25 and only two in the top 40.
TRACR sees Pittsburgh (27th) and Louisville (28th) as the biggest threats to Duke’s conference title hopes. But with seven of the 18 teams in the conference rated outside the top 100, TRACR indicates Duke may have a relatively easy path to the conference title.
Duke is projected to finish roughly 19-1 in conference per TRACR, and its 18.98 expected conference wins are almost two full wins higher than any other team in the country. Duke still relies a lot on young players, so there may be more inconsistency in the conference than TRACR thinks.
Still, the Blue Devils are the easy favorites.
6. Mountain West (Average TRACR: 12.38)
There’s a sizeable gap between the power conferences and the mid-majors, but it’s worth noting that the Mountain West is the best of the mid-major conferences.
The Mountain West is led by San Diego State, which features a top-10 defense and a win against Houston. But San Diego State is joined by five other teams in the top 75, meaning half of the conference is in that range. That wouldn’t be great for a power conference, but it’s excellent for a mid-major conference.
If you’re looking for excellent basketball in a non-power conference, the Mountain West is your best bet.
The Complete Top 10
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