The 2025 NCAA baseball tournament bracket has been revealed, and as always, the matchups provide plenty of intrigue.
To discover which teams got the best and worst draws, The Tennessean designed a metric that averages each team’s ranking in five computer metrics: Warren Nolan’s RPI and Elo, Massey, the Kevin Pauga Index (KPI) and D1Baseball’s Diamond Sports Ranking. Each team’s average ranking was then compared against the other teams in the field.
For the most part, the committee’s seeding matches the metrics. Within the top eight, North Carolina − the No. 3 team in these rankings − sticks out as being under-seeded, while Auburn, which got the No. 4 national seed but is ranked seventh, is a bit overseeded. The metrics also felt the eighth-best team was Coastal Carolina, the 13th seed, while actual No. 8 seed Oregon State is ranked 12th.
On the hosting bubble, the metrics liked Alabama, Florida and Georgia Tech better than UCLA and Southern Miss. The Gators and Crimson Tide didn’t win enough in the SEC to host, but the Yellow Jackets stand out as the biggest hosting snub. All three rate out as the toughest 2-seeds to face.
Most competitive regional
Using the average rating of all four teams in the regional, the Oxford regional featuring Ole Miss, Georgia Tech, Western Kentucky and Murray State is the most competitive.
Murray State is tied for the best 4-seed in the field, while Georgia Tech and Western Kentucky are the third-best 2- and 3-seeds, respectively.
Thus, this is a regional that could legitimately be won by all four teams. While Ole Miss did well to surge late in the season and earn a host spot, the Rebels got just about the most difficult possible draw.
Which hosts are on upset alert?
Other than Ole Miss, the two other host teams that stand out as getting difficult draws were Clemson and Southern Miss.
Southern Miss isn’t a surprise. The No. 16 seed regional often includes one of the top teams that didn’t host as the 2-seed and that’s the case here with Alabama, which is tied with Florida as the top 2-seed in the field. The 3-seed, Miami, is also above average as the sixth-best on that seed line and 4-seed Columbia isn’t a pushover either, ranking as the fourth-best 4-seed.
Clemson was given the Big 12 regular-season champion in West Virginia, an underperforming SEC team in Kentucky and a deceptively difficult 4-seed in USC Upstate, which rates as tied for the best 4-seed in the field with Murray State. While the Mountaineers rank as just the 14th-best 2-seed, the Wildcats are the fifth-best 3-seed and the presence of a strong 4-seed means Clemson can’t take any games off.
The host teams with the easiest paths
To determine which hosts had the easiest paths, the average ranking of the non-host teams in the regional were averaged, but the 4-seed’s rating was capped at 150. This is because, while a strong 4-seed can wreak havoc on a regional, there isn’t much difference in a host’s ability to beat a 4-seed ranked 150 or 250.
By this metric, the team with the best draw is LSU. The Tigers did get a relatively tough 2-seed in Dallas Baptist, but 3-seed Rhode Island rates out worse than some 4-seeds, and 4-seed Little Rock is the worst team in the field.
Coastal Carolina’s draw rating out well is surprising considering that the 2-seed, Florida, is tied for the best in the field. But this metric doesn’t see the other two teams in this regional as a factor. East Carolina is the 15th-best 3-seed and the Chanticleers won a series over the Pirates earlier in the season. The 4-seed, Fairfield, is the ninth-best 4-seed and doesn’t project to be a major factor.
Another team that got a good draw is Texas, which drew both a below average 2-seed (UTSA, the 15th-best 2-seed) and 3-seed (Kansas State, the 13th-best 3-seed), though 4-seed Houston Christian is no pushover.
Upset picks to watch
To determine the most likely 2-seed upsets, the rating of the 2-seed in each regional was compared to the average rating of the host and the 3-seed. The same method was used to determine the most likely 3-seed upsets.
By this method, two 2-seeds stand out above the rest: Dallas Baptist and Florida. The Gators are tied for the best 2-seed in the field anyway, but both teams also are in a regional that features a weak 3-seed.
The most likely 3-seed upsets according to this method are Mississippi State, Kentucky and Cal Poly. Underperforming teams from the SEC often do well in the postseason, and the Bulldogs rate as the best 3-seed in the field. The biggest challenge is that the Tallahassee Regional, which also features Florida State and Northeastern, is tough. Cal Poly, the second-best 3-seed, is in the Eugene Regional against Oregon and Arizona, both of which are below-average in their seed lines.
Upsets by a 4-seed are rare, but if one does happen, the three best candidates are USC Upstate, Murray State and Saint Mary’s, which rate as the three best 4-seeds in the field.
Aria Gerson covers Vanderbilt athletics for The Tennessean. Contact her at agerson@gannett.com or on X, formerly Twitter, @aria_gerson.
