Who has the hardest path to NCAA baseball super regional?

The 2025 NCAA baseball tournament is set to kick off Friday with regional action across 16 host sites.

As is the case in any tournament, some teams will have an easier path to reach the super regional – and eventually the Men’s College World Series in Omaha, Nebraska. Vanderbilt earned the No. 1 overall seed, but the Commodores don’t necessarily have the easiest path to reach the CWS.

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Meanwhile, Southern Miss wrestled away the No. 16 seed and the final regional hosting privilege, but the Golden Eagles are rewarded with the toughest path to even reach the super regional round.

Here’s a power ranking of the toughest regionals in the 2025 NCAA baseball tournament based on the mean RPI of the four teams in the bracket:

1. Hattiesburg Regional

• No. 16 Southern Miss: 19
• Alabama: 13
• Miami: 40
• Columbia: 60
• Median RPI: 33

The Golden Eagles barely earned the final top-16 seed to host the regional but will face the stiffest competition to reach the super regionals, which would be rewarded with potentially facing No. 1 Vanderbilt.

The Crimson Tide will come in with a chip on their shoulder after being denied a hosting bid despite finishing ranked No. 13 in RPI. The Hurricanes and Lions present the toughest draws as No. 3 and No. 4 seeds, respectively.

2. Knoxville Regional

• No. 14 Tennessee: 10
• Wake Forest: 30
• Cincinnati: 34
• Miami (Ohio): 80
• Median RPI: 38.5

The defending national champion Vols don’t have an easy path by any means, as Wake Forest and Cincinnati have proven to be strong teams with top-34 RPIs during the regular season. Tennessee has the second-toughest regional opener, having to square off against Miami (Ohio).

If the Vols can come out of their regional, they’ll be as battle-tested as any team in the super regional round.

3. Corvallis Regional

• No. 8 Oregon State: 7
• TCU: 17
• USC: 44
• St. Mary’s: 89
• Median RPI: 39.25

The Beavers earned the right to host not only a regional, but also a super regional if they can withstand the Corvallis Regional. Oregon State will have to get past a tough Horned Frogs team that narrowly missed making the tournament last season.

USC is in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2015, while Saint Mary’s won the West Coast Conference tournament championship.

4. Austin Regional

• No. 2 Texas: 4
• UTSA: 25
• Kansas State: 37
• Houston Christian: 94
• Median RPI: 40

Not only did the Longhorns draw the short end of the stick by not getting the No. 1 overall seed, but they also have one of the hardest paths in the regional round. UTSA and Kansas State can give Texas a run for its money in the Austin Regional.

First-year coach Jim Schlossnagle has his work cut out with this regional draw.

5. Clemson Regional

• No. 11 Clemson: 9
• West Virginia: 28
• Kentucky: 38
• USC Upstate: 86
• Median RPI: 40.25

Clemson will be one of a few seeded programs on upset alert, having to face a dangerous Mountaineers team. The Tigers don’t want to experience deja vu from last season when Florida walked into the Clemson Regional and knocked them off.

Playing in the SEC, Kentucky also played a gauntlet of a schedule and could prove to be a major challenge in the regional.

6. Oxford Regional

• No. 10 Ole Miss: 12
• Georgia Tech: 20
• Western Kentucky: 42
• Murray State: 90
• Median RPI: 41

Ole Miss is back in the regionals for the first time since 2022 and hosting for the first time since 2021. However, the road to a super regional for the Rebels will be anything but easy.

The Yellow Jackets could very well have been hosting a regional if a game or two had gone their way in the regular season or the ACC tournament. Georgia Tech was projected to be one of the hosts leading up to the conference tournaments.

7. Conway Regional

• No. 13 Coastal Carolina: 8
• Florida: 18
• East Carolina: 66
• Fairfield: 74
• Median RPI: 41.5

Coastal Carolina could argue it was underseeded after finishing with the No. 8 RPI in the country through conference championships. Yet, the Chanticleers are the No. 13 overall seed and face a squad that ended up winning a regional as a guest last season in Florida.

The Gators began the season 1-11 in SEC play but finished with 18 wins in their final 24 conference games. Florida is a dangerous visiting team, seeking its third consecutive College World Series trip. East Carolina and Fairfield are also ranked well within the top 75 in RPI.

8. Nashville Regional

• No. 1 Vanderbilt: 1
• Louisville: 32
• ETSU: 36
• Wright State: 102
• Median RPI: 42.75

The Commodores earned the No. 1 seed after defeating Ole Miss 3-2 in the SEC tournament championship game and earning the No. 1 overall spot in the RPI heading into the selection show. Vanderbilt, despite a lofty baseball history, will be the top seed in the tournament for the second time in program history.

Vanderbilt will have to get past a pair of top 36 RPI-ranked teams, but it will open with a matchup against a Wright State team that went 2-10 against Quad-1 opponents.

9. Los Angeles Regional

• No. 15 UCLA: 15
• UC Irvine: 23
• Arizona State: 49
• Fresno State: 100
• Median RPI: 46.75

The Bruins will have a tough test against UC Irvine and face a former Pac-12 opponent in Arizona State. However, opening against Fresno State gives UCLA a chance to open the tournament with positive momentum.

UCLA is playing in its first regional since 2022.

T-10. Chapel Hill Regional

• No. 5 UNC: 6
• Oklahoma: 26
• Nebraska: 50
• Holy Cross: 144
• Median RPI: 56.50

UNC draws a favorable road in the regional round after beating Florida State in the ACC tournament semifinals. While Oklahoma was tested in the SEC, the Sooners played the No. 213-ranked out-of-conference schedule and finished with a 9-9 road record.

North Carolina went 25-6 at home this season.

T-10. Fayetteville Regional

• No. 3 Arkansas: 5
• Kansas: 24
• Creighton: 45
• North Dakota State: 152
• Median RPI: 56.50

Arkansas’ path to the super regionals will start with North Dakota State, the No. 152-ranked team in RPI, but it will get tougher with matchups against potentially Creighton and Kansas from there. The Razorbacks posted a dominant 32-4 record at Baum-Walker Stadium in Fayetteville, Arkansas, this season.

Despite finishing the season 20-32, the Bison clinched an automatic berth in the tournament after winning the Summit League tournament.

T-12 Eugene Regional

• No. 12 Oregon: 16
• Arizona: 27
• Cal Poly: 29
• Utah Valley: 170
• Median RPI: 60.50

The Eugene Regional is anything but a cakewalk, despite being this low on the list. Arizona and Cal Poly each had strong 2025 regular seasons and have more than enough talent to steal the regional and pull off an upset.

Utah Valley, which finished the season ranked No. 171 in RPI, is making its second-ever NCAA tournament appearance.

T-12. Athens Regional

• No. 7 Georgia: 2
• Duke: 31
• Oklahoma State: 46
• Binghamton: 163
• Median RPI: 60.50

Despite having the same media RPI as the Eugene Regional, it’s clear the Bulldogs have a slightly easier path than Oregon. Duke is just outside the top 30 in RPI, while Oklahoma State finished the season 28-23 and 5-12 in Quad-1 games.

Binghamton is making its sixth NCAA tournament appearance and owns a 1-10 record, with its lone win coming in the Greenville Regional in 2009.

14. Tallahassee Regional

• No. 9 Florida State: 14
• Northeastern: 22
• Mississippi State: 35
• Bethune-Cookman: 200
• Median RPI: 67.5

Link Jarrett and Florida State missed out on a hosting seed by one ranking. The Seminoles likely would have played host if they had defeated North Carolina in the ACC tournament semifinals. While RPI doesn’t suggest it, the Seminoles have to play a Northeastern team that has won 27 consecutive games and is arguably the hottest team in the nation.

Mississippi State is an SEC squad that could also give FSU a run for its money. On the other hand, the Wildcats enter the tournament after beating FAMU in the Southwestern Athletic Conference tournament championship game in dramatic fashion on a three-run walk-off home run by Andrey Martinez.

15. Auburn Regional

• No. 3 Auburn: 3
• NC State: 33
• Stetson: 62
• Central Connecticut: 183
• Median RPI: 70.25

The Tigers earning the No. 3 overall seed probably shocked a lot of college baseball fans, as their 38-18 record likely did not jump off the page. However, Auburn was the No. 3-ranked team when it comes to RPI. NC State, however, is a team capable of knocking off the Tigers and the Hatters always play a tough out-of-conference schedule.

Auburn opens the regional against Central Connecticut, which, despite a 31-15 record, went 0-2 in Quad-1 and 2 games.

16. Baton Rouge Regional

• No. 6 LSU: 11
• Dallas Baptist: 21
• Rhode Island: 68
• Little Rock: 238
• Median RPI: 84.5

While LSU has the lowest median RPI of any regional, that does not mean its path to hosting a super regional is easy. Dallas Baptist is making its fifth consecutive regional appearance, including having pulled off an upset in the Columbia Regional in 2021.

Little Rock enters the tournament as the lowest-ranked team in RPI after finishing the season eight games below .500. The Trojans won five games in four days to win the Ohio Valley conference tournament and steal an automatic bid.

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