The 12-team College Football Playoff was built for expanded access to the national stage, but no one saw the curious case of Arizona State coming. The Sun Devils were picked dead last in the Big 12, but managed to shock the sport and reach the CFP as conference champions.
You might as well get used to it going forward. Granted, there’s no guarantee that another program will go all the way from worst to first, but finding contenders requires a wider net than ever. With nine months to go until Selection Sunday, we’re going to try.
The recipe for an Arizona State-style turnaround is simple, if you can follow it. The Sun Devils dealt with major injuries the season before, which masked the level of talent on the roster. The program had a breakout star in running back Cameron Skattebo, who went from good to Heisman contender. And finally, the quarterback situation took off as Michigan State transfer Sam Leavitt put together an All-Big 12 season.
Not every turnaround will look exactly like the Sun Devils, but here are five teams coming into the year with middling expectations that could quickly overperform.
2024 record: 6-7, 4-5 Big Ten
The first year under coach Jedd Fisch was always going to be brutal after the core of the 2023 national finalists nearly all departed for the NFL. A 6-7 season with wins over USC and Michigan showed potential. On the quarterback front, Demond Williams earned a pair of starts as a freshman and played exceptionally well in games against Oregon and Louisville. Fisch’s Arizona squads also improved dramatically year-over-year, eventually peaking at 10 wins. The addition of former Wildcats stars Tacario Davis and Jacob Manu should bring a meaningful infusion of talent on defense. The Huskies are undervalued.
2024 record: 2-10, 1-7 ACC
Obviously, the Seminoles didn’t exactly plan for a 2-10 season with a 1-7 mark in ACC play. The season was, frankly, astonishing. While things completely fell apart down the stretch, there’s also reason to believe it was an underwhelming season that simply spiraled out of control. Florida State added quarterback Tommy Castellanos with offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn to fix the offense. The Seminoles brought in proven receivers like Duce Robinson and Squirrel White. Defensive tackle Darrell Jackson gives them at least one true building block who could take another step in 2025. It’s a narrow pathway, but there’s a chance.
2024 record: 5-7, 4-5 Big 12
Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels had an astonishingly bad start to the season, throwing eight interceptions in his first five games during a 1-4 start. Once the game slowed down for him, the Jayhawks quickly rose right back up the Big 12 standings. Kansas won three straight games against ranked opponents in the latter half of the year, and came within a combined six points of adding Kansas State and Big 12 champ Arizona State to the list. KU has more holes to replace than other teams on this list, especially at the skill positions, but the Jayhawks were nowhere near as bad as their 5-7 record from last year. Five of their losses came by a combined 16 points.
2024 record: 5-7, 2-6 SEC
On paper, Auburn took some serious steps from 2023-24, jumping from No. 92 to No. 28 in offense and No. 47 to No. 31 in defense. Unfortunately, the Tigers finished ahead of only Purdue and Florida State among Power Four teams in turnover margin. The quarterback situation is by far the biggest black mark on the roster, but at least coach Hugh Freeze brought in former starters Jackson Arnold (Oklahoma) and Ashton Daniels (Stanford) to compete for the job. If the Tigers can get even halfway consistent quarterback play, the rest of the roster is coming along quickly. This is a make-or-break season for Freeze.
2024 record: 4-8, 3-6 Big 12
The Cougars are perhaps the most direct comparison to Arizona State as the they will likely rank among the lowest teams in the Big 12 heading into 2025. Houston actually fielded one of the conference’s best defenses (though will have to maintain it through coordinator change), but Willie Fritz’s signature offense was a disaster. They landed multiple potential offensive starters in the portal, headlined by former five-star quarterback Conner Weigman from Texas A&M. If Weigman can drag the offense towards the top of the conference, Houston’s valuation suddenly changes dramatically. Fritz is a good bet too; he has led teams from middling to at least nine wins in JUCO, Division II, FCS and FBS.
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