Who Tennessee fans should root for in the College Football Playoff race on Saturday

Tennessee fans should root for: In a plot twist … Indiana!

How much: Rooting for Indiana to get blown out is tired, and rooting for an Indiana upset is wired

Why: Given some others you’re going to have to pull for this Saturday and next, you don’t want to root for Ohio State anyway. Sure, the Buckeyes beating the unbeaten Hoosiers and their 106th-ranked schedule by as many points as possible benefits Tennessee the most, but it doesn’t guarantee anything. When it comes to what “competitive” looks like for Indiana in Columbus, the Big Ten-loving selection committee can paint with a wide brush, and Indiana will just beat terrible Purdue by 50 in the regular-season finale and probably end up getting viewed as favorably as they are now. So why not zig instead of zag and root for the plucky upstarts from Bloomington to shock Ohio State? Two-loss Tennessee almost certainly won’t be ranked behind a two-loss Ohio State, but keep in mind the Buckeyes still have to play Michigan and we know Ryan Day curls into the fetal position at the sight of maize and blue. Yes, the game is in Columbus and the Wolverines stink, but Day is 1-3 against Michigan and the pucker factor would be at an all-time high if the highest-priced team in college football has to snap a three-game losing streak to its biggest nemesis in a do-or-die game.

Tennessee fans should root for: Wake Forest

How much: Clawfense, baby

Why: In all likelihood, the ACC is going to end up a one-bid league as it should. But Miami is still ranked ahead of Tennessee, so there is a scenario where the Hurricanes could win their final two games to get to 11-1, lose a close game to SMU in the ACC Championship Game and still sneak in. After all, the selection committee had Miami at No. 4 for no apparent reason other than liking Cam Ward, who is really entertaining and really good, to be fair. The Hurricanes rode their luck in some one-score wins and were down 11 to Duke at one point, but it ran out in the upset loss at Georgia Tech. Wake Forest, coached by former Tennessee offensive coordinator Dave Clawson, is 4-6, but the Demon Deacons have played six one-score games this season, so this one could get crazy.

Tennessee fans should root for: Florida

How much: Try to hold your nose while Gator-chomping?

Why: With the Big Ten-loving selection committee having two unbeaten teams and two one-loss teams comprising four of the top five teams – even though its other 14 members range from mediocre to underachieving to terrible – the best path back into the Playoff field for Tennessee is one of the two-loss SEC teams in front of it losing. Georgia at No. 10 plays UMass, but No. 9 Ole Miss goes to Florida. The Gators just took it to LSU in The Swamp, which sounded loud despite all the online anger about Florida keeping Billy Napier. Ole Miss demolished Arkansas and handily beat Georgia before its open date, but Gainesville is a tough place to play and Lane Kiffin and the Rebels now have the pressure of having to maintain their position. This is the best bet for an Ole Miss loss, because even though the Egg Bowl can be screwy, it’s hard to see Mississippi State winning in Oxford next week.

Tennessee fans should root for: Virginia

How much: Meh

Why: SMU is two spots behind Tennessee and the likeliest path for the Mustangs into the Playoff is by winning the ACC, thus whatever they do is largely immaterial to the Vols. But you never know. Maybe SMU wins out to get to 11-1 and loses on the last play to 11-1 Miami and BYU rebounds from losing to Kansas to win the Big 12, and it’s down to Tennessee and SMU, with its losses to two conference champions, for the final at-large spot. A Virginia upset here isn’t necessary, but it also couldn’t hurt – and it also wouldn’t allow a Clemson backdoor into the ACC Championship Game, for what it’s worth.

Tennessee fans should root for: Kentucky

How much: Maybe the Wildcats can pretend they’re in Oxford again

Why: Tennessee fans might have to root for the other UT next week in that Texas A&M game, but this week it behooves the Vols if the Longhorns lose. Sure, it would make Tennessee’s 28-18 win against Kentucky look better, but it would bring Texas back to the pack of two-loss teams, and the glaring lack of a quality win would not compare well to the others. Georgia beat Texas, Tennessee and Clemson; Alabama beat Georgia and South Carolina; Ole Miss beat Georgia and South Carolina; and Tennessee beat Alabama. Meanwhile Texas’s best win is either Colorado State or Vanderbilt. Kentucky is just 4-6, but won at Ole Miss and led Tennessee at halftime, so the Wildcats have caused some problems for SEC contenders this season.

Tennessee fans should root for: Minnesota

How much: Row the boat

Why: Penn State is ranked No. 4 despite not having a quality win, unless you want to count a 21-7 home win against Illinois as a quality win. The Big Ten-loving selection committee stuck the Fighting Illini at No. 25 this week after they snapped a two-game losing streak by beating … Michigan State. By the way, the Nittany Lions only put Illinois away with a touchdown by 1:55 left. Penn State is hanging its hat on a close loss to Ohio State, which means their resume stinks. A second loss presumably would drop the Lions a long way, and they’re not going to lose to Maryland at home, so this is the one. Minnesota is 6-4 and in the top half of the Big Ten standings, but after ripping off four wins in a row including victories against USC, UCLA and Illinois, the Golden Gophers lost at Rutgers last week.

Tennessee fans should root for: Arizona State

How much: Focus your energy on the SEC and Big Ten

Why: Your efforts rooting against BYU last week worked. The Cougars were upset at home by 3-6 Kansas and plummeted eight spots in the rankings. Yet because BYU remains the projected Big 12 champion, it can be ranked two spots lower than Tennessee and still get a Playoff spot as an automatic qualifier. BYU’s drop suggests the the Big 12 is going to be a one-bid league, but its remaining one-loss team losing again couldn’t hurt. How the Big 12 plays out is largely immaterial to Tennessee’s Playoff situation, but it could be entertaining with some fresh faces vying for a spot in the field.

Tennessee fans should root for: Kansas

How much: CHAOS

Why: There’s a scenario where the Big 12 doesn’t get a Playoff team *at all*. It involves the top teams in the league continuing to beat each other (a la Arizona State over BYU) and/or lose to outsiders (this one) while Boise State wins out and takes home the Mountain West title and Army beats Notre Dame this week, then Tulane in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game. In this scenario, Boise State and Army end up ranked higher than whoever wins the Big 12 and get in the Playoff as the fourth- and fifth-highest ranked conference champions. Again, immaterial to the Vols, but fun to think about.

Tennessee fans should root for: Arkansas

How much: Tennessee wishes it could have that night in Fayetteville back right about now

Why: Arkansas couldn’t beat LSU, Ole Miss or Texas at home to help make Tennessee’s loss to the Razorbacks look less bad. It would look really bad if the Hogs lost at home to Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs are 4-6.

Tennessee fans should root for: Mississippi State

How much: No chance you’re watching any of this game

Why: Missouri continues to hang on in the back end of the top 25 and didn’t even drop a spot after losing at South Carolina. That’s not entirely unfair as Williams-Brice has been a tough place to play and the Gamecocks are a top-20 team, but it’s just kind of odd and perhaps another case of the selection committee keeping a team ranked so the likes of Alabama, Texas A&M and now South Carolina have another quality win. A Mississippi State upset here adds some value to that win for Tennessee and diminishes the value of the Missouri win for other contenders.

Tennessee fans should root for: Whoever you want

How much: The only reasons to check this out is to watch Ashton Jeanty or check out the Pokes’ awesome uniforms

Why: Boise State is ranked behind Tennessee but in the bracket and actually currently is set up to get a first-round bye as the No. 4 seed thanks to being two spots ahead of BYU. What the Broncos do or don’t do is immaterial for the Vols, because Boise State isn’t getting in unless it wins the Mountain West and stays ranked ahead of at least one other conference champion. This game is included just to reiterate this.

Tennessee fans should root for: Army

How much: AMERICA

Why: Notre Dame at No. 6 is … a choice. The Fighting Irish have the worst loss by far of any Playoff contender, a home defeat to Northern Illinois. The Huskies are 6-5 and currently in seventh place in the MAC, and while they could beat Notre Dame, they couldn’t beat Buffalo, NC State (ahem), Toledo, Ball State and Miami (Ohio). Notre Dame still has the win at Texas A&M in the season opener, but wins against Louisville and Navy have lost their luster after the Cardinals lost to Stanford and the Midshipemen were beaten by Rice (after the Owls fired their coach) and beaten 35-0 at home by Tulane. One more loss should be enough to remove the Irish from the bracket, and unbeaten Army and disappointing USC are the country’s final hopes to spare us from Notre Dame getting smacked by an SEC team, potentially in South Bend, in the first round.

Tennessee fans should root for: Oklahoma

How much: Even Josh Heupel will be rooting for the Sooners

Why: Oklahoma clinches bowl eligibility with its sixth win, but more importantly an upset presumably would eject Alabama from the Playoff bracket. The selection loves the Crimson Tide, so it can’t be considered a given, but you have to think a second loss to an unranked team and a third loss overall would be enough to move Alabama behind the two-loss SEC crowd. Plus, apparently unbeknownst to the selection committee, Tennessee actually beat Alabama on the field this season, and keeping the Tide ahead of the Vols after a loss to a team Tennessee beat comfortably on the same field would be farcical. Oklahoma could salvage its first season in the SEC and do its former national championship-winning quarterback a huge favor with a shocker here.

Tennessee fans should root for: Auburn

How much: Don’t get your hopes up – the Tigers haven’t beaten an FBS team at home since October *of last season*

Why: While Tennessee needs one of the two-loss SEC teams ahead of it to lose, the Vols also need to be wary of the two-loss SEC team behind it in Texas A&M. The Aggies are two wins, this game on The Plains and next week against Texas at home, from reaching the SEC Championship Game. If A&M won in Atlanta, it would be in automatically, and just showing well in that game might be enough to stay in with a third loss. The selection committee will evaluate those conference championship games, but the risk in punishing a team for losing in it disincentivizes those games and they are such money-makers for the power conferences that it’s a dicey proposition. The ideal scenario for Tennessee might be A&M loses this game and then knocks off Texas next week, but the rooting interest in that game could hinge on what happens this week.

Tennessee fans should root for: Vanderbilt

How much: Maybe hold off on starting Vanderbilt Hate Week until after this one

Why: The thought here is Vanderbilt rolls into Baton Rouge, beats the reeling Tigers and sneaks into the top 25 of the Playoff rankings for the regular-season finale against Tennessee. There’s no way in August you would have believed it had you been told the Commodores might end up a quality-win opportunity for the Vols, but here we are. Tennessee is going to have to win that game in Nashville anyway, so Vanderbilt improving its own profile doesn’t hurt anything. Things are burning in Baton Rouge, by the way, as LSU has lost three games in a row on the field and saw No. 1-ranked 2025 recruit Bryce Underwood flip his commitment from LSU to Michigan. And now Diego Pavia saunters into town …