Who’s most likely to win Super Bowl LIX: Ranking all 14 playoff contenders

The Bills aren’t the top seed in the AFC, but they’ve done two things that warrant them being first on this list: They broke Kansas City’s streak of 15 straight wins, and they broke Detroit’s streak of 11 consecutive victories. That’s plenty of evidence to suggest Buffalo is more than ready to end decades of postseason heartache and claim the first Super Bowl win in franchise history. That’s not just because quarterback Josh Allen has elevated his play and put himself in position to win his first MVP award. He has an assortment of weapons around him, both in the passing game and the running game (the Bills are the first team in history to have 30 passing touchdowns and 30 rushing touchdowns). He has a dominant offensive line, a unit that has allowed him to be sacked only 14 times this season. 

Yes, the Buffalo defense took some lumps in a loss to Los Angeles and in that win over Detroit – when it surrendered 86 combined points – but that unit allowed an average of just 18.8 points in the other 15 games. Let’s also not forget that these Bills won’t be daunted by having to potentially win in Kansas City to reach a Super Bowl. The last time they were there, in 2021, they came within 13 seconds of winning a Divisional Round game with Allen matching Patrick Mahomes play for play. They’re plenty good enough to finish the job this time around.

Philadelphia has the best roster in the league, hands down. Let’s start with running back Saquon Barkley, who gained 2,005 rushing yards this season while running behind one of the best offensive lines in football. When the Eagles want to throw it, quarterback Jalen Hurts has a number of difference-makers at his disposal, including wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert. Then there’s the defense, a unit that blossomed under the direction of first-year Eagles coordinator Vic Fangio. There are playmakers at every level – most notably defensive tackle Jalen Carter, linebacker Zack Baun and rookie cornerbacks Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean – and this unit can match up with the dynamic offenses that teams like Detroit, Minnesota and Green Bay will bring into the postseason. Even in losing to Washington a couple weeks ago, the Eagles forced five turnovers. A concussion sustained by Hurts early in that contest played a huge role in Philadelphia dropping that contest. He’s trending to be back on the field for the Wild Card Round, which is what Eagles fans want to hear. Philadelphia has won 12 of its last 13 games. This team is as dangerous as anybody in the league when healthy.

There has been a long-running debate about whether the Chiefs are as dominant as their 15-2 record indicates or whether they’ve simply benefitted from some lucky breaks. The truth is it doesn’t really matter. This team could be 10-7 right now, and it would be just as problematic in the playoffs. That’s what happens when you win three championships in five years and two in a row. You get the benefit of the doubt once January arrives. The good news for the Chiefs is their offense has performed better in recent weeks with Pro Bowl guard Joe Thuney filling in at left tackle, rookie wide receiver Xavier Worthy seeing more targets and fellow wideout Marquise “Hollywood” Brown – who missed the first 14 games of the season with a shoulder injury – returning to the mix. This is a unit that has watched Mahomes grind through one of the worst statistical years of his career, primarily because of injuries, inconsistency and lack of protection. However, Mahomes has been sacked only once in his last three games and the Chiefs haven’t turned it over since that Week 11 loss to Buffalo. Those are encouraging signs for the two-time defending champions, as their defense isn’t nearly as dominant as it was last season. It also helps to have homefield advantage throughout the postseason and that crucial first-round bye. That rest will be essential for older veterans like Thuney, tight end Travis Kelce, defensive tackle Chris Jones and wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. They will be ready to roll once the Divisional Round arrives.

Any questions about the Lions’ viability to win a championship ended in Detroit’s win over Minnesota on Sunday. The Lions didn’t just lock up the top seed in the NFC and the NFC North title. They sent a message to the entire league that it’s foolish to underestimate them when they’re down. This is a team that has relied on a potent offense all year, one that leads the league in scoring and boasts weapons aplenty. What the Lions revealed on Sunday night is that their defense can still deliver in critical moments. The Lions harassed Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold all night and used sticky coverage to frustrate wide receivers Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Defense was supposed to be the major question about the Lions, as they still have double-digit players on that side of the football on injured reserve. Sunday’s win was yet another example of how tough this team can be when the odds aren’t working in its favor. Head coach Dan Campbell has preached grit since he walked into that franchise four years ago. They’re showing more of that character with each passing week, as the lessons they clearly learned in losing last year’s NFC Championship Game take hold. The only reason the Lions aren’t ranked higher here is because of their collective health woes (and cornerback Terrion Arnold exited Sunday night’s game with a foot injury). Even with those issues – they’re still 15-2, by the way — they have the look of a team that isn’t going to be denied.

The Vikings, at 14-3, are about to be one of the toughest wild-card playoff teams in the history of the NFL. They took a tough loss in Detroit on Sunday, but anybody who watched that game could see how much of a street fight that was. There was no shame in losing to the Lions, who pulled away in the fourth quarter. If anything, that defeat could make the Vikings even hungrier as they head into the postseason. You could see the damage Minnesota’s defense can do, as the Lions had to work for every point they got (and still committed two turnovers). Defensive coordinator Brian Flores has done a tremendous job with that unit, and he’s been aided by the collective impact of edge rushers Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel. The contributions of quarterback Sam Darnold can’t be oversold, either, even though he struggled through a rough night against the Lions. He was brought in to hold a job until rookie J.J. McCarthy was ready to play. It now looks like Darnold could be this team’s starter for the foreseeable future, especially with the impressive supporting cast the Vikings have on offense. 

As painful as it was for Minnesota to lose to Detroit, these teams would’ve flipped in this ranking if that game had gone differently. The Vikings now get the opportunity to face the only other team to beat them this season, the Los Angeles Rams, in the Wild Card Round. Ironically, the Vikings lost to the Rams a week after losing to Detroit earlier this season. Given how well Minnesota has played this year, it’s not wise to bet on that result happening a second time. 

Let’s be honest – the Ravens looked like a team headed toward an early playoff exit about a month ago. Their defense was giving up too many big plays and Justin Tucker, arguably the best NFL kicker ever, was missing too many field goals with alarming regularity. As much as the Ravens impressed with an offense led by Jackson and running back Derrick Henry, they didn’t seem equipped to deal with the high-pressure moments that come in the postseason. That isn’t the case now. That same defense eventually hit its stride under first-year coordinator Zach Orr, as it has allowed just 43 points over a four-game win streak. Tucker only has attempted three field goals during that stretch, but he’s nailed all of them, including two from 50 or more yards. This is exactly what the Ravens need because offense won’t be a problem, even if wide receiver Zay Flowers potentially could miss the Wild Card Round with a knee injury sustained in Saturday’s win over Cleveland. Jackson is playing at a level we’ve never seen him reach, especially when it comes to dissecting opponents from the pocket. What he must prove next is whether he can sustain that excellence throughout the playoffs. His struggles in January are notable and last season’s loss to Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game was soul-crushing. There’s a very good chance Jackson will have to go through Allen and Mahomes on the road to reach his first Super Bowl. If he’s really the MVP, that will be a great time to show why.

There are seven teams that feel like legitimate contenders to win the Super Bowl, and the Packers round out that group. It’s not just talent that ranks them this high on this list. It’s their potential for elevating their game when the playoffs arrive. That is exactly what happened last season, when the Packers blew out the Cowboys in Dallas and nearly beat San Francisco in the Divisional Round. It might happen again if Green Bay can play at a similar level. The Packers have a top-10 offense, a top-10 defense (although the loss of injured cornerback Jaire Alexander is tough) and a head coach in Matt LaFleur who has coached in two NFC title games. The real question here is whether Jordan Love can take over in the way he did at certain points in last year’s postseason. 

It wasn’t encouraging that Love left Sunday’s loss to Chicago with a hand injury or that wide receiver Christian Watson was carted off with a knee injury. However, Love’s play has improved in the second half of the season, as he’s shaken the turnover problems that plagued him earlier this year (he hasn’t thrown an interception in his last seven games after tossing 11 in his first eight) and operated more as a game manager. There’s no question the Packers want to run their offense through running back Josh Jacobs. However, five of Green Bay’s six losses this season came against Detroit, Minnesota and Philadelphia. The Packers will see the Eagles again in a rematch of the season-opener on Wild Card Weekend. Green Bay is going to need a lot of points if it hopes to avenge that loss back in September.

All you have to do is watch one post-game victory speech from Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh to see how he turned this team around in one season. Whether it’s getting his players to sing “For He’s a Jolly Good Fellow” or answer the same question he’s posed to teams at previous stops (“Who’s got it better than us?”), Harbaugh has a way of willing his squads to believe in everything he’s selling. That’s what the Chargers have done this year. They’ve bought into their coach in ways that haven’t happened in that franchise in well over a decade, and that dedication makes them an intriguing wild-card team. The Chargers do everything Harbaugh loves — protecting the football, limiting penalties, bullying opponents with the run game and suffocating offenses with a relentless pass rush and reliable coverage. Those also happen to be nice qualities to have when playing on the road in the postseason. Throw in a strong-armed quarterback (Justin Herbert) and a couple playmakers (running back J.K. Dobbins and rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey) and the Chargers have more than enough talent to pull some upsets. This team will be a handful in the early rounds. Book it.

The Broncos didn’t waste any time entertaining the idea that people should hold out hope for postseason miracles in Miami and Cincinnati. They pounced on Kansas City as soon as that game kicked off and left no doubt as to who should own the seventh seed in the AFC. You can’t really judge Denver off that 38-0 blowout because it came against most of the Chiefs’ backups. It is smart to be wary of an upstart team like this heading into the playoffs. Like the Chargers, the Broncos have a tough defense and a smart head coach who knows how to win championships. The only reason the Broncos aren’t rated higher than Los Angeles is the quarterback position. Bo Nix has proven to be a talented signal-caller with a bright future. Justin Herbert is already a star. As good as Nix is, he’ll have to go into Buffalo next week and go head-to-head with Josh Allen. Right now, it’s tough to bet on Nix and the Broncos offense keeping pace in that type of contest. The Broncos have played six games against teams that started Pro Bowl-caliber quarterbacks (Buccaneers, Chargers, Chiefs, Ravens and Bengals). Denver’s only win against the group came against Baker Mayfield and Tampa Bay — in Week 3. The Broncos have the type of defense that can create challenges for Allen, especially with athletic pass rushers and gifted cover cornerbacks in Patrick Surtain II and Riley Moss. However, the Chargers and Bengals each scored over 30 points against that unit. Buffalo is certainly capable of doing the same thing.

The Rams were trending toward being a sexy Super Bowl contender when they went off on Buffalo for a 44-42 win on Dec. 8. They went on to score 44 points over their next three games – all wins by the way — and now we’re left to wonder what kind of offensive firepower Los Angeles brings into the postseason. There wasn’t much to see in that season-ending loss to Seattle since several key Rams starters didn’t play. But what if that explosion against the Bills really was an outlier for this team? The talent is there, as the combination of quarterback Matthew Stafford, running back Kyren Williams and wide receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp is frightening when they’re all healthy. 

One thing that is clear about these Rams is that head coach Sean McVay is going to pound the rock relentlessly. His team averaged over 33 rushing attempts per game in that four-game winning streak prior to Sunday’s loss to Seattle. There’s also something to be said for a team that starts 1-4 and ends up winning the NFC West. But let’s be real here: The Rams aren’t beating the heavyweights in the NFC by kicking field goals (after all, they started turning their season around with a 30-20 win over Minnesota in Week 8). Los Angeles needs to be able to score touchdowns in bulk. A rematch and wild-card matchup with Minnesota will create more pressure on that offense to deliver. 

Say this much for the Buccaneers – they made it interesting. Tampa Bay was in a great position to cruise to the NFC South title heading into Week 16, but an upset loss to Dallas changed that narrative. Then all the Bucs had to do on Sunday was beat a five-win New Orleans Saints team to claim the division crown. That contest was still up in the air in the fourth quarter, until the Bucs pulled away for the 27-19 victory. This is all brought up as evidence for the argument that you don’t know what you’re going to get from this bunch on a given week. As much as the Bucs have struggled with lesser teams this season, they’ve also beaten the Lions (20-16 in Week 2) and the Chargers (40-17 in Week 15) and taken the Chiefs to overtime in Kansas City (a 30-24 loss in Week 9 when Tampa Bay didn’t have its top three wide receivers available). The Bucs are dangerous for one simple reason – they can light a team up when they are rolling. They have a dominant run game, a dynamic passing attack and offensive coordinator Liam Coen should be getting more recognition for the job he’s done with a unit that has been top-five in scoring for most of this season. The Bucs should be able to put up some points against Washington in Wild Card Weekend, as Tampa enjoyed a 37-20 win over the Commanders earlier this season. However, the Bucs defense better be ready for Jayden Daniels. He’s grown up a lot since these teams met in Week 1.

Head coach Dan Quinn is a candidate for Coach of the Year honors given how much this team surprised this season. Even the most optimistic Commanders fan had to be stunned by what this team accomplished after holding the second overall pick in last year’s draft. That said, it will be interesting to see if this feel-good story continues deep into the postseason. Given the teams that have qualified, it won’t be easy for Washington to do much damage. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has been the one of the best stories in the league all year, and he’s likely to produce some jaw-dropping plays. However, this team’s success has come down to two other key variables – how well it runs the football and how well it keeps opponents from running it. When the Commanders declined offensively after midseason – especially against more staunch run defenses like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh – they couldn’t get their ground attack going at all. In their four wins prior to Sunday’s victory over Dallas, they averaged 183 rushing yards. The numbers on defense are just as noteworthy. There have been six games this season when Washington has allowed more than 140 rushing yards and three when it has surrendered 200 or more. That’s a bad recipe in the playoffs. Of the top six rushing teams in the league this season, four made the postseason in the NFC along with Washington (Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Green Bay and Detroit). We’ll see if the Commanders are ready for what the Bucs will bring on the ground.

The major difference between last year’s Texans and this year’s group as the playoffs approach is optics. That 2023 squad had both confidence and a chip on its shoulder, as that group went from being perennial losers to division champions behind the brilliant first-year efforts of quarterback C.J. Stroud and head coach DeMeco Ryans. This current team has felt the weight of expectations and the frustration of attrition, as it never really came close to living up to the idea that a Super Bowl was within reach this year. The most obvious problem has been the offense. The line has struggled to protect Stroud all season. The passing game has taken hits to all three key receivers (losing Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell to season-ending knee injuries and Nico Collins for six games to a hamstring injury). Running back Joe Mixon proved to be a smart addition in the offseason but too often it felt like Stroud – who was sacked 52 times this season, as opposed to 38 times last year – wasn’t put in position to keep building on the success he enjoyed as a rookie.

To understand how bad it’s been in Houston lately, the Texans scored all of 19 points in consecutive losses to Kansas City and Baltimore before beating Tennessee in Sunday’s season-finale. It’s not hard to imagine the Chargers’ defense giving them similar problems in the Wild Card Round.

There isn’t a team in the league that is inspiring less confidence heading into the postseason than the Steelers. After Saturday’s loss to Cincinnati, Pittsburgh has dropped four straight games, including three to teams that also are heading to the playoffs (Philadelphia, Baltimore and Kansas City) and a fourth to a squad that nearly snuck in (Cincinnati). The most noteworthy takeaway from all those games is that the Steelers simply don’t have enough offense to compete with the big boys in this league. They can play defense. They can win the special teams battle and survive on timely turnovers. But without those things happening, it’s too much of a grind for this group to manufacture points. The Steelers have scored 57 combined points in this losing streak. Quarterback Russell Wilson has gone from being a player who made head coach Mike Tomlin look like a genius – when Tomlin inserted Wilson into the lineup in place of Justin Fields in Week 7 – to one who might be playing his way out of town. Wilson hasn’t thrown for more than 217 yards in his last four games and he’s produced some horrible turnovers in the red zone. The common belief used to be that Pittsburgh’s offense would improve once wide receiver George Pickens returned from a hamstring injury that sidelined him for three games late in the season. The reality is the Steelers haven’t gotten any better on that side of the football since he came back. Look, Tomlin did a hell of a job guiding this bunch to a 10-7 record. It’s just hard to see a team this flawed being a serious threat to advance beyond the first round.

• Weeks in top five: 18

Allen may not have the statistical advantage over Lamar Jackson, but he’s led his team to a better record, and he’s done that without another Pro Bowl skill player on his offense (Jackson had three). He also performed brilliantly in those wins over the Chiefs and the Lions while guiding the league’s second-best scoring team. This was supposed to be the year when the Bills retooled after losing key veteran leaders. Instead, they have the second seed in the AFC because of their quarterback, who also accounted for 41 touchdowns.

• Weeks in top five: 16

Jackson has produced a monster season – he’s the first quarterback in league history with 4,000 passing yards, 900 rushing yards and 40 touchdowns – but he wasn’t the man this team turned to when it started the year 0-2. That man was Derrick Henry, who ignited the Ravens with a prolific five-game stretch and finished the year with 1,921 rushing yards. In other words, Baltimore wasn’t a one-man show. It’s also fair to say Jackson has a better argument for Offensive Player of the Year with those gaudy numbers.

• Weeks in top five: 8

Barkley led a renaissance for running backs this season, as he came within 101 yards of breaking Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record. However, Barkley might not even have won this award if he’d made history in the end. Quarterbacks always have the upper hand when it comes to the MVP. He would’ve needed a down year by players at that position and that just wasn’t the case this season.

• Weeks in top five: 1

This is the first time Burrow has been included in these rankings, primarily because his team hasn’t been above .500 until this weekend. He likely wins this award if the Bengals had won four or five of the games they blew – after all, he did throw for 4,918 yards with 43 touchdowns and just nine interceptions – but life isn’t always fair. Burrow did his part in keeping the Bengals in playoff contention. It’s unfortunate his team couldn’t do more to avoid the self-inflicted wounds that plagued them all year.

• Weeks in top five: 12

The Lions have boasted the best offense in football all year, with Goff leading the charge. He’s produced career-highs in touchdown passes and passer rating, and he might have been a stronger candidate in a different year. The key thing to remember about Goff is that the Lions kept winning despite suffering so many injuries throughout the regular season. Yes, he has a ton of talent around him, but that leadership means plenty when it comes to consideration for this award.