The Pro Bowl has a credibility problem.
This year’s replacements list is nearly as long as the initial roster. Many of those replacements are going for legitimate, well-derserved reasons. The Chiefs and Eagles combined for 11 Pro Bowl selections, so that makes sense. Many other selections are dealing with the bumps and bruises of a long season, and who am I to judge how someone else’s body feels after several brutal months? If a week at the Pro Bowl — excuse me, the Pro Bowl Games for you keeping track at home — isn’t how players want to spend their offseason, so be it. If it is, great! More power to them. Thank you, sincerely, for showing up.
Where we run into issues is the replacements themselves. This week, Russell Wilson and Drake Maye were named replacements for Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Both Allen and Jackson are dealing with minor injuries. Again, totally fine. Heal up and be ready for the games that actually matter. But the fact that so many players opt out of the “Games,” which are really a bunch of skill competitions — including video games — followed by flag football, shows the event has lost its luster. The fact that Maye and Wilson are the replacements show it’s lost its credibility, too.
Maye and Wilson ranked 22nd and 23rd, respectively, in expected points added per dropback, an all-encompassing stat that takes into account situation and sacks/rushing, two things passer rating can’t do. It’s not perfect, but it provides a pretty good picture.
Here are some players who were ahead of Maye and Wilson this year: Aidan O’Connell, Kirk Cousins and Joe Flacco. Somehow, Justin Herbert, who finished 10th in EPA per dropback, was passed over as a replacement in favor of Maye and Wilson. Maye did an encouraging job in one of the league’s worst offensive ecosystems, but let’s be real here. In no world was he better than Herbert. You can say Wilson had a nice bounceback year and made the playoffs, but many numbers show he was a below-average quarterback. Including the blowout playoff loss to the Ravens, Wilson went 6-6 as a starter. That doesn’t exactly scream out “top-five AFC quarterback.”
Lest you think I’m just picking on Maye and Wilson, you should know the Pro Bowl has been losing credibility for some time. In 2012, Jeff Saturday, in his final season, made the Pro Bowl despite being benched by his own actual team, the Packers. It’s now best remembered for Saturday switching teams and snapping to his longtime quarterback, Peyton Manning, one final time.
In 2022, Tyler Huntley made the Pro Bowl as an alternate after starting four games … and not even playing well in them. Yahoo Sports reported that alternate voting is done by the players themselves, unlike regular voting, which is done by fans, coaches and players. That leads to popularity winning out over merit. Oh, and the only reason Huntley was needed was because Allen decided to play golf instead of go to the Pro Bowl.
These instances go way back. In 2010, Terrell Suggs voted for Ryan Fitzpatrick to make the Pro Bowl over league MVP Tom Brady.
If the Pro Bowl/Pro Bowl Games don’t want to be taken seriously, that’s fine. Players have made it known it’s not worth their time. Many of the league’s players — and especially its biggest stars — take several weeks away from football after their season ends. The NBA’s All-Star Weekend, which is during the season, also struggles with making its festivities meaningful, but at least in the NBA, players don’t drop out (unless seriously injured). One can always quibble with a selection here or there, but’s hard to find truly undeserving NBA All-Stars.
If the NFL’s event itself isn’t serious and the replacement process is even less serious, we need to stop treating it as such. Maybe, colloquially, we don’t take it seriously, but “Pro Bowls” is one of the first things — and, in many cases, the first thing — on Pro Football Hall of Famers’ profiles on the official website. Mike Sando of The Athletic is a Hall of Fame voter and an AP awards voter. He put it perfectly in early January.
Basically, it all boils down to this: The Pro Bowl at once meaningless (players skip all the time, the selection process produces questionable results, and the festivities themselves aren’t even football) and extremely meaningful (it’s part of Hall of Fame selection).
Discounting players who make the Pro Bowl legitimately hurts their legacy, but counting them the same as replacements does, too. Eliminating the “Pro Bowl” designation as a whole feels too extreme the other way. There are only two All-Pro teams, after all. Do only the two best players at a position deserve end-of-season recognition? That’s awfully harsh.
So, what’s to be done? Somewhat hilariously, Article 38, Section 6(b) of the NFL’s Collective Bargaining Agreement says …
“In any League Year, the NFL may elect, in its sole discretion, not to hold a Pro Bowl game. In such a case, the NFL shall replace the Pro Bowl game with another event (e.g., without limitation, an honors ceremony or NFL press release) that recognizes the accomplishments of outstanding NFL players, provided that the NFL will consult with the NFLPA prior to making its determination.”
It’s hard to envision the NFL passing up the publicity and money of bringing league stars (and, as you saw above, non-stars) together for a weekend, even if the product is lacking. It’s even harder to envision a return to the Pro Bowl of yesteryear, with pads and effort. And while the replacement process is severely flawed and hurts the event’s legitimacy, I doubt the NFL would have told Joe Burrow this year “Sorry Joe, you’re the only one who didn’t opt out, so you have to play the whole game.”
The NFL can’t make players care, and the NFL won’t do away with the event entirely. Designating between initial selections and replacement selections, as Sando suggested, would be a start. Positional awards like college football‘s would also help quantify players’ excellent seasons. Derrick Henry’s end-of-season honors won’t include MVP or Offensive Player of the Year. But should his list of accomplishments from this year — the second-best running back in the NFL — really only match Wilson’s, an average (at best) quarterback? A second-place finish in hypothetical “Barry Sanders Running Back of the Year” voting would be a nice compromise. MLB awards positional Gold Gloves and Silver Sluggers. The NBA has three All-NBA teams and places fewer positional limits on selections. The point is, solutions abound.
When you’re watching football players play dodgeball or video games — and simultaneously realizing how many bypassed attending an NFL “honor” for some simple R&R — know that the NFL can and should be doing better by its players and its fans.
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