Last Friday, Katie Woo, the St. Louis Cardinals beat reporter for The Athletic, published an article on the Cardinals’ attempts to trade eight-time All-Star and ten-time Gold Glove-winning third baseman Nolan Arenado.
Arenado is still a member of the Cardinals, so that tells you how those trade talks went. Arenado, who joined St. Louis before the 2021 season after inking an eight-year deal with the Colorado Rockies in February of 2019, exercised his no-trade clause to block a deal to the Houston Astros this offseason. The Cardinals also went deep into talks with the Red Sox about Arenado before Boston pivoted to signing free agent Alex Bregman.
But there was another nugget that caught my eye in Woo’s article:
According to an industry source, multiple teams inquired about Arenado early in the offseason, including the Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals and Los Angeles Angels. Those conversations did not yield much, as all three teams were considered non-starters.
I have some questions.
Why are the Cardinals trying to move Arenado?
The Cardinals have missed the playoffs the past two seasons, and while the team improved by a dozen wins from 2023 to 2024, ownership decided to take a step back this season and re-focus on building up the farm system.
Now, why a professional organization like the Cardinals can’t do both a) compete and b) build the farm system back is another discussion. Suffice it to say, the Cardinals think they can only do one at a time, and they’ve chosen the latter.
Notably, and somewhat infamously, the Cardinals did not sign a single free agent this winter. Instead, they’ve let veterans walk while also engaging in trade talks regarding Arenado, their biggest remaining star, who has three years and $74 million remaining on his contract, $10 million of which Colorado will cover.
Why haven’t the Cardinals yet traded Arenado?
This one’s easy: when signing the initial eight-year, $260 million contract extension with the Rockies, Arenado and his agent(s) also negotiated a full no-trade clause. This came in handy when the Rockies wanted to move on from him to sign…uh, Kris Bryant.
Arenado held the power, and forced his way to St. Louis, one of the National League’s most premiere franchises who had made the playoffs in both 2019 and 2020 and hadn’t suffered a losing season since 2007.
Now Arenado finds himself in the same situation: his team is wanting to rebuild while wanting to deal him. It didn’t work out too well for Arenado in St. Louis. While he posted solid numbers, the team itself has yet to win a postseason game and outright missed the playoffs twice.
Arenado, who turns 34 in April, wants to make sure his next team is a serious contender.
Okay…so why didn’t Arenado entertain the Royals?
Wonderful question, especially since the Royals not only reached the playoffs last year, but won the Wild Card series against Baltimore before giving the Yankees fits in the Division Series.
Another note on the teams Arenado considered and didn’t consider—the Tigers, another team with whom talks evidently went nowhere, bounced the Astros from last year’s playoffs and took Cleveland to a winner-take-all Game 5 of the Division Series.
Teams to whom Arenado would’ve (theoretically, I guess) accept trades:
- Houston Astros – swept in the Wild Card round by Detroit, lost one of its biggest stars in free agency while trading another to the Cubs
- Boston Red Sox – missed the playoffs for the third straight season; signed Alex Bregman to a three-year deal with numerous player opt-outs
- Los Angeles Dodgers – won the World Series, signed every free agent under the sun, but showed no interest in Arenado
- New York Yankees – prioritized Juan Soto, then changed course after losing Soto to Mets, instead focusing on facial hair and music
- San Diego Padres – took the Dodgers to the brink in the Division Series, and seem to have pretty stable ownership, thanks for asking
If you’re keeping track at home, that’s three of five teams Arenado was interested in joining that had absolutely zero interest in Arenado joining.
Woo also wrote that Arenado “also did not want his family (Arenado has a two-year-old daughter, Levi, with his wife, Laura) to have to adjust to another organization unless he was entirely sure of his decision.”
Could the Royals use Arenado?
Unless you’re sold on Maikel Garcia holding down third, then the answer to this question is an emphatic “yes.”
Third base has been an eyesore for the Royals since Moose finally left for good. I wrote about it toward the end of 2022. Then, at the beginning of this offseason, during a Royals Review Roundtable (say that five times fast), I wrote this about Arenado:
He’s clearly no longer the superstar he once was but he’s still better than anything the Royals currently have. Get the Cardinals to eat some of the remaining contract, send over one or two average prospects, and suddenly the Royals have another veteran on the team, one at a position that has plagued the franchise over the years, and maybe playing for a contender again gets more out of him.
Would the Royals have to give up much to acquire Arenado?
That depends on how much dough the Cardinals would’ve retained. Arenado is getting older and his numbers have dropped these past two seasons. He’s no longer a threat to win MVP, but he could still make the All-Star team by posting around 2.5+ bWAR while posting an OPS+ above league-average.
It doesn’t appear that the Cardinals wanted to eat much of this contract, though. As Woo wrote:
This meant the Cardinals would not be willing to eat most of Arenado’s remaining salary (Arenado is owed $74 million over the next three seasons, with the Rockies on the hook for $10 million) even if it helped net a better return package. Mozeliak would need to negotiate a deal that minimized the amount of financial responsibility going forward.
Considering that, when it comes to prospects, I doubt the Royals would’ve needed to deal much quality.
What’s the endgame? Who’s to blame for Arenado not wanting to join the Royals?
There is no one to blame for Arenado not wanting to join the Royals. He negotiated a no-trade clause into his contract, and he has every right to use it. Arenado once before waived that NTC to move to a team he thought would contend, and it hasn’t worked out. I don’t blame him at all for being cautious about waiving it a second time.
Unfortunately, that means Nolan Arenado will not join the Royals, either now or in the future. I won’t be shocked when he finally does waive his NTC sometime during the season as the toll of losing grows on him.
If the Royals run away with things, sure, maybe he’d reconsider moving across Missouri.
I just don’t see that happening.
But if the Royals keep winning, then in the near future, when Kansas City comes calling on a player with a no-trade clause, that player will be willing to waive it to join the Royals.
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