College Basketball

Women’s college basketball bracket watch: North Carolina’s on track to host in NCAA Tournament

Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s & women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.

As we continue getting into the meat of conference play, even less becomes clear in the intermediate while possibilities fade out in the future. Every week, the number of teams that could potentially be a No. 1 seed dwindles more.

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The joy of conference play is chaos, particularly in this new era of the Power 4. Penn State and Oklahoma State are the elite disruptors of last week, taking down top 10 teams unexpectedly.

Who will rise next? Who will steady the ship? Will the SEC take another step into madness over the next fortnight as each team finds its own Kryptonite in conference play? Find out on the next episode of Bracket Watch-Z!

Last four in First four out Next four out Last four byes

Harvard

Washington

Arizona

Oregon

Iowa

George Mason

Seton Hall

Louisville

Princeton

Stanford

South Florida

Virginia Tech

Iowa State

Saint Joseph’s

Belmont

Indiana

Teams by conference

Big 10

12

SEC

10

ACC

9

Big 12

7

Ivy

3

Big East

2

A-10

1

TCU falls

Last week, Houston earned its first Big 12 win by beating Oklahoma State. But this week, the Cowgirls delivered TCU its first conference loss. How can you not be romantic about the Big 12?

In what looked like another good win added to the docket for the Horned Frogs, Oklahoma State put together a stunning fourth-quarter comeback and added its second signature win in the last 10 days after knocking off West Virginia.

Though the Cowgirls aren’t yet in hosting territory, they’re trending toward it, climbing up to a No. 7 seed this week from No. 9 last week.

TCU doesn’t drop off the No. 2 line, but it could wind up as the lowest-ranked No. 2 seed if LSU defeats South Carolina on Friday night.

The Big 12 was already unlikely to earn a No. 1 seed in March, but this decreases that likelihood even more. Monitoring Kansas State’s play is worthwhile, but losing Ayoka Lee to injury could open the door for some movement at the top of the conference standings.

Perhaps the biggest winner of the Oklahoma State-TCU game was a team not even playing. Richmond beat the Cowgirls on a neutral court. It also owns victories over other mid-major tournament teams (Fairfield and Columbia) and gave Texas a difficult wire-to-wire game in Austin. The Spiders are 30th in the NET, so as long as they continue with a strong close to A-10 play and a competitive conference tournament, they’ll almost definitely make the field even if they were to lose before the A-10 championship.

Iowa State, Stanford on agonizing bubble

Would anyone like a play-in for the No. 11 seeds? Somebody? Anybody? Please?

The bubble is shaping up to be a mess at this stage, as multiple teams hold wins over one another, share similar losses, and own equally questionable resumes.

Let’s start with Washington, our first team out of the tournament bracket. The Huskies are enjoying a solid first season in the Big Ten. Tina Langley’s team seems like the most likely to play itself into a tournament invite, but it needs to sharpen its resume. Losing by 20 plus to another fringe team (Iowa) doesn’t help.

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Washington’s signature win is a road victory over Illinois — a good one for the resume. However, competitive losses to LSU, Utah and UCLA are the best data points for the Huskies. If Washington hadn’t lost to Montana in November, the Huskies would have a bye and be in the field. Montana is better than its record indicates and a real threat in the Big Sky (watch Brian Holsinger’s team, Mack Konig is the truth). However, that’s not likely to factor on the selection committee’s radar. A Quad 4 loss stings badly.

The Huskies need to win most of their upcoming games against bubble opponents (Indiana, Penn State, Oregon) and potentially upset Ohio State or Maryland to get off the bubble.

Iowa State has given me the most trouble in bracket placement this week. Similarly to Washington, the Cyclones lack signature wins to force moving into the upper echelon. Wins over Middle Tennessee and Arizona stand out the most at the moment.

If you looked solely at Iowa State’s opponents, there’d be a case that it would be in, solely on its strength of schedule. But, as we continue to hammer home each week, margin of victory and loss is huge to understanding the NET and showing competitiveness. The Cyclones have lost every game against a NET top-25 team (UConn, South Carolina, West Virginia) in a double-digit defeat. Even in its most recent game against West Virginia, the Mountaineers maintained a 15-point advantage for the most of the game. It’s worth noting that Emily Ryan missed that game with an illness, which was a factor for keeping Iowa State in. The Cyclones have two significant opportunities next week, taking on Kansas State and TCU in a four-day span.

Stanford is somewhat akin to Arizona last season, playing one of the toughest schedules in the country, but it’s also playing one of the toughest schedules in the country (12th overall). Snagging a win against the upper crust of the ACC could go a long way in solidifying things for the Cardinal, similar to Arizona taking down top-notch Stanford last season.

There’s a good chance we could see some mid-majors, who were plucky in non-conference play and excel in conference play, claim a tournament berth,.

Tar Heels on track to host

This feels like the year that everything is clicking for coach Courtney Banghart’s program. North Carolina is now up to a No. 3 seed in my bracket. Per College Basketball Analytics, the Tar Heels rank sixth nationally in defensive rating. They’ve stifled numerous opponents, including a 19-point trouncing of Kentucky, North Carolina’s signature resume win so far.

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The Tar Heels took care of Duke in an ACC grind-it-out game that the Tobacco Road rivalry has become synonymous with the past few years. (Shuddering thinking about the 2023 ACC tournament quarterfinal.)

North Carolina can take a massive step Sunday at home against Florida State. So often the past few years, UNC has been on the cusp of cementing itself in the top echelon of the conference, but it dropped a game after a big win. But North Carolina appears poised to change that trend this season.

The Tar Heels’ depth continues to stand out. Against Duke, freshman Blanca Thomas played big minutes and walled off the paint. Maria Gakdeng was the best big on the court against Kentucky, which boasts one of the nation’s better frontcourts. Indya Nivar’s box score doesn’t begin to tell the story of her play, as she’s always in the mix on both ends, whether with a quick pass, strong drive or sweltering stop and forced turnover.

Losses to Georgia Tech and Notre Dame (its only regular-season meetings) prevent North Carolina from placing even higher, but continued consistency in the ACC will have the Tar Heels poised to host in March for the first time since Sylvia Hatchell still walked the sidelines.

Stop overthinking UCLA

What has UCLA done this season? It’s one of two remaining undefeated Division I teams. It has five Quad 1 wins, tied for third in the country. It handed South Carolina, the reigning national champion, its only loss of the year. It’s won all but one game by double digits.

The Bruins haven’t taken on the brunt of the Big Ten schedule yet, but they’re doing what you’re supposed to do: Win and win convincingly. Currently, there’s no case for any other team to take the top overall seed from the Bruins.

Could that change in time? Absolutely, but at the moment, the case is closed.

Getting real with LSU

The Tigers have a huge opportunity against South Carolina: a nationally televised game to decide who’s at the top of the SEC.  The two powerhouse programs meet only once in SEC play this season, highlighting the importance of this meeting.

LSU’s non-conference schedule is somewhat understandably picked apart every season. The Tigers’ overall strength of schedule ranks 86th, and their non-conference strength of schedule ranks 212th.

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Outside of SEC play, LSU beat NC State by 17 points for a statement win, took down solid Washington and beat Stanford. On top of that, the Tigers own comfortable wins over solid mid-major teams in Tulane, Troy and Murray State.

In conference play, they have beaten Tennessee and Vanderbilt, teams vying to host in March. LSU has dominated other SEC opponents, outscoring Arkansas, Auburn and Florida by double digits. The Tigers earned three Quad 1 wins, which is tied for seventh most nationally.

I can’t quibble with LSU’s strength of schedule, and its schedule has been better at this point than it typically gets made out to be. Though the Tigers don’t own a top-10 win that could propel them into a No. 1 seed, they can change that against South Carolina and against Oklahoma (another Quad 1 opponent) next Thursday.

The Tigers continue to beat who’s in front of them, have asserted themselves near the top of the SEC, and have a shot to take top billing.

The Bracket Central series is part of a partnership with E*TRADE. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

(Photo of Indya Nivar: Frank Jansky / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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