Women’s college basketball Bubble Watch: Is Virginia Tech safe? Can Princeton get in?

(Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s and women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.)

By the time you’re reading Bubble Watch next week, teams in power conference tournaments will be warming up, hoping to spark some magic to go on a Cinderella run.

Just one week of play remains in the regular season, making the margin for error incredibly thin. Mid-major conference tournaments await, ready to pop the bracket bubble with potential upsets.

Headed into this week, where do the bubble teams stand?

ACC

Locks: California, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Notre Dame

On the bubble: Virginia Tech

Spotlight on: Virginia Tech

After beating Cal, Virginia Tech continues to position itself well enough to sneak into the NCAA Tournament. Victories over Louisville and Georgia Tech also provide a solid foundation for the Hokies’ résumé.

However, an upset during the ACC tourney or at least a tighter game against the conference’s upper tier could help solidify Virginia Tech’s chances. The Hokies look comfortable, but six of their eight Quad 1 games have ended in double-digit defeats.

Hanging within reach of North Carolina recently was a good start, and snagging a game in the tournament would go a long way. Avoiding stumbles at Boston College and Clemson this week would add some certainty to Virginia Tech’s case.

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Big East

Locks: Creighton, UConn

On the bubble: Marquette, Seton Hall

Spotlight on: Marquette

After losing to Providence, Villanova is squarely out of the hunt for the NCAA Tournament.

Marquette is on the outside at the moment, but it has maintained a holding pattern as some other teams in a similar spot slid down the board. Let’s examine the Golden Eagles’ résumé.

Coach Cara Consuegra’s team has come alive during the back half of Big East play, 8-2 in its last 10 games after starting the season 11-6. The Golden Eagles suffered some tough nonconference defeats, dropping close games to UCF and Bowling Green (133rd and 153rd respectively in the NET).

Consuegra is in her first season and Marquette returned just 21.4 percent of minutes played by last year’s tournament team. As the Golden Eagles are getting hot late in the season, it’s fair to wonder if they could sneak in.

It’s a long shot at the moment, but it’s a possibility. The Golden Eagles will finish out the Big East season on Sunday at Gampel Pavilion against UConn. If they become the first team in league play to lose to UConn by single digits, showcasing competitiveness against a top-notch opponent, that could stand out to the selection committee. Pair that with a deep Big East tournament run, and Marquette might have just enough juice to slide in for a third straight NCAA Tournament appearance.

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Big Ten

Locks: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, UCLA, USC

Projected in: Iowa, Indiana, Oregon, Minnesota

On the bubble: Nebraska, Washington

Spotlight on: Washington

Washington keeps doing just enough to stay in the mix, comfortably beating Rutgers and then taking a big swing by blowing out Nebraska.

However, dropping three straight quality games by single digits the two weeks prior made it difficult for the Huskies to make much headway. They have two more games left in the Big Ten regular season, and they need both to put themselves in the best position possible to close strong. Washington travels to Minneapolis on Wednesday for a Quad 1 game against the Golden Gophers, a great opportunity to beat another team hanging around the bubble. In Seattle on Sunday, Washington hosts Oregon with the chance to avenge a one-point defeat by the Ducks earlier this month.

Junior guard Elle Ladine leads the way in February, averaging nearly 19 points per game while shooting 42.7 percent on seven 3-point attempts per game. The Huskies need some big showings from their star guard to improve their tournament positioning.

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Big 12

Locks: Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Utah, West Virginia

Projected in: Iowa State

On the bubble: Arizona, Colorado

Spotlight on: Colorado

The Buffaloes have significant wins over West Virginia and Kansas State but also have suffered fairly one-sided defeats against the top of the conference. Despite beating the Mountaineers earlier, Colorado lost by 27 in the rematch.

Colorado is 1-4 in its last five games, four of those coming against the top half of the Big 12 and by a combined 86 points — each game a double-digit blowout.

It’s worth noting that Colorado has been incredibly banged up, running out a different starting lineup each of the last five games due to injuries. This is a difficult time to hit a rough patch considering the selection committee is reviewing résumés.

Colorado played the 309th toughest strength of a nonconference schedule with no wins that would set it apart from other bubble teams. The Buffs need luck and an unlikely run in the conference tournament to return to the Big Dance for a fourth straight season.

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SEC

Locks: Alabama, Kentucky, LSU, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vanderbilt

Projected in: Mississippi State

On the bubble: Florida

Spotlight on: Florida

The Gators have made things interesting the past few weeks, knocking off likely tournament-bound Mississippi State and taking Tennessee to the wire over the weekend.

With remaining matchups against Oklahoma and Texas, two significant Quad 1 opponents, can Florida make some noise?

Oklahoma is on a five-game winning streak, including beating Ole Miss and Vanderbilt. Texas hasn’t lost since the second week of January and is the nation’s No. 1 team. Florida has to win one of these games to even have a chance to play itself into the tournament field, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.

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Mid-majors

Locks: Harvard, Richmond

Projected in: Albany, Ball State, Columbia, Fairfield, Fairleigh Dickinson, FGCU, Gonzaga, Grand Canyon, Green Bay, Hawaii, High Point, James Madison, Lehigh, Lindenwood, Middle Tennessee, Missouri State, Montana State, Norfolk State, North Carolina A&T, North Carolina-Greensboro, South Dakota State, Southeastern Louisiana, Texas Southern, UNLV, UTSA

On the bubble: Portland, Princeton, St. Joseph’s, South Florida

Spotlight on: Portland

If you’ve missed out on the WCC regular season, I feel sorry for you! It’s been a blast with Washington State and Oregon State having major impacts in their first year in the conference.

The top eight of the league have clashed back and forth with varying styles separating and differentiating each program.

Portland and Gonzaga are tied for the conference lead, each 15-3 in WCC play, but Gonzaga won both head-to-head games against Portland, taking the automatic bid. Those two losses to the Bulldogs were by a combined six points and came just a few games apart. The Pilots have won 10 games since and have a chance to close the season this week by adding another two wins.

On paper, the Pilots seem an unlikely tournament team despite their record, considering their strength of schedule. However, a few key wins are worth examining, ousting solid Hawaii, which is in control of the Big West, and dominating Princeton, which has similarly been on the bubble.

The tournament is a long shot for Portland without an automatic bid, but I wonder if the Pilots could play spoiler in the right scenario, given how inconsistent and barren the bubble has been. If Portland continues to win out until the WCC title game and even drops a close game, could it slide in as a final seed or make the First Four?

The Bracket Central series is part of a partnership with E*TRADE.

The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

(Photos of Virginia Tech’s Rose Micheaux and Princeton’s Ashley Chea: Brian Bishop / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images, Geoff Stellfox / Getty Images)

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