Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s and women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.
The NCAA selection committee revealed its first iteration of the Top 16, giving us our first view into how it views the season thus far.
Advertisement
Barring unforeseen circumstances, I anticipate the Big 12 being absent from the top two seed lines. The committee seems to value early wins less, which puts the conference (and particularly TCU) in a tough spot. I’d also wager that the degree to which TCU lost to South Carolina played a significant factor — a tough stroke of luck for the Big 12.
With the Big 12 already in a bit of a mucky place before that reveal, how might this impact the conference as a whole? Will we see the middle of the league seeded lower due to a relative lack of conference strength?
I have a strong feeling that this winds up playing a significant factor in the bubble. To put it more directly: Iowa State, Colorado and Arizona better leave no shred of doubt in the remaining weeks of Big 12 play and the conference tournament to have a shot at March Madness.
How is the bubble shaping up around the country with our new understanding?
ACC
Locks: Duke, North Carolina, NC State, Notre Dame
Projected in: California, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville
On the bubble: Virginia Tech
| Team | Record | NET | SOS | Quad 1 | Quad 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
16-9 |
46 |
47 |
1-6 |
2-1 |
Spotlight on: Georgia Tech
The Yellow Jackets were on track to be a lock for the NCAA Tournament before last week, and they are almost a certainty, but they need to find an additional jolt to close the season.
Though they’re 4-1 in February, they played SMU, Wake Forest and Miami tight. They blew out Clemson earlier this season but dropped a game to the Tigers last week for a Quad 2 loss.
The Yellow Jackets host NC State and Florida State this week, and though they don’t need to win both games, finding the verve they had earlier in ACC play would serve them well. Closing strong seemed to influence the selection committee in 2024, and teams want to avoid giving it any reason to doubt as Selection Sunday nears.
Georgia Tech has flirted with hosting, and is unlikely to reach that now, but could still wind up a No. 6 seed if it closes the year convincingly. Do the opposite, and a No. 9 seed is likely.
#StingEm pic.twitter.com/TMv96URIgQ
— Georgia Tech Women’s Basketball (@GTWBB) February 17, 2025
Big East
Locks: Creighton, UConn
On the bubble: Marquette, Seton Hall, Villanova
| Team | Record | NET | SOS | Quad 1 | Quad 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
16-8 |
60 |
90 |
0-3 |
1-1 |
|
|
18-7 |
69 |
77 |
0-4 |
2-2 |
|
|
15-11 |
68 |
57 |
0-5 |
3-4 |
Spotlight on: Everyone but Creighton and UConn
Seton Hall is unlikely to make the tournament after dropping a must-win to Marquette. Villanova has one more chance to make a statement against Creighton to close the regular season (especially as it lost by double digits earlier in Big East play). Marquette’s win over Seton Hall was quality but will not be enough to override losses to UCF, Bowling Green and Butler — all outside the NET top 100.
Advertisement
I understand that much more goes into building a conference’s strength than just a single season, there are layers to it, but I can’t get past how the league scheduled out of conference as a whole.
Only five Big East teams finished with a nonconference strength of schedule in the top 100. Cut that down to the top 75, and there are only four teams from the conference who fit. That provides next to no leeway for conference mishaps for each team, but more importantly, somewhat dilutes the strength of the Big East from the NET’s perspective.
The lack of nonconference schedule strength inherently devalues Big East wins. If you wonder why the Big East only sends two teams to the Big Dance, this is the answer.
Big Ten
Locks: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, UCLA, USC
Projected in: Iowa, Indiana, Oregon, Minnesota
On the bubble: Nebraska, Washington
| Team | Record | NET | SOS | Quad 1 | Quad 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
16-9 |
39 |
18 |
2-6 |
4-2 |
|
|
19-8 |
33 |
65 |
0-6 |
2-2 |
|
|
17-9 |
38 |
17 |
3-8 |
1-1 |
|
|
14-12 |
49 |
25 |
1-8 |
0-3 |
Spotlight on: Nebraska
It’s hard to get a read on the Huskers. I was ready to put them even deeper into the bubble this week, but then they beat Maryland by 20 points and boosted their standing quite a bit, enough to stabilize after dropping three straight games to tournament-bound teams.
However, I need to see Nebraska close out the season strong and win a game or two in the Big Ten tournament.
Nebraska played the 165th-ranked nonconference strength of schedule in Division I. The Cornhuskers handled it well, but after losing to Creighton or Georgia Tech, they need to close the regular season with gumption.
A statement win is so significant to evaluate stature in resume totality, and the Huskers are just 2-5 since a five-game winning streak in early January.
next up 💕 our Play4Kay game at PBA pic.twitter.com/Ta0iSL2Bpq
— Nebraska Women’s Basketball (@HuskerWBB) February 18, 2025
Big 12
Locks: Baylor, Kansas State, TCU, West Virginia
Projected in: Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Utah
On the bubble: Arizona, Colorado
| Team | Record | NET | SOS | Quad 1 | Quad 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
15-12 |
58 |
41 |
1-7 |
3-3 |
|
|
17-8 |
62 |
53 |
2-5 |
1-1 |
Spotlight on: Arizona
The Wildcats are hanging on by a thread and likely could be off the bubble entirely by next week’s Bracket Watch.
Arizona is resilient and has some quality wins, but I anticipate Arizona missing out on an NCAA Tournament invitation.
Grand Canyon and Northern Arizona are both stellar mid-majors, but losing to both early in the season is pretty damning for a bubble team’s resume. That would be more salvageable if the Wildcats weren’t on the receiving end of so many double-digit losses to the top end of the Big 12. It’s difficult to balance out the NET and the eye test.
After losses to TCU and Oklahoma State last week, the Wildcats are out of statement game opportunities in Big 12 play. Barring an unexpected run to the Big 12 tournament final, Arizona is out.
SEC
Locks: Alabama, Kentucky, LSU, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vanderbilt
Projected in: Mississippi State
On the bubble: Florida
| Team | Record | NET | SOS | Quad 1 | Quad 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
13-13 |
56 |
24 |
0-9 |
3-2 |
Spotlight on: Mississippi State
The Bulldogs are currently projected in, but I want to take a quick moment to look at their resume as we get closer to March.
The good
• Mississippi State’s Jan. 9 win over Oklahoma
• Nonconference wins over Utah, South Florida and Belmont
• Beating Vanderbilt in double overtime last week
The bad
• Losing to Florida after beating Vandy
• Giving Missouri one of its two SEC wins
Advertisement
The Bulldogs are solid and have shown glimpses of promise, but they have struggled with inconsistency. Losing to Florida almost did more damage than the positive they gained by beating Vanderbilt.
Mississippi State finishes the SEC regular-season slate by taking on Auburn and Texas A&M with a tough contest against Texas in between. Mississippi State can stay in good standing by avoiding slip-ups against Auburn and A&M, which are no longer in the tournament mix, and by giving the Longhorns a good game.
Mid-majors
Locks: None
Projected in: Albany, Ball State, Columbia, Fairfield, Fairleigh Dickinson, FGCU, Gonzaga, Harvard, Hawaii, High Point, Grand Canyon, Green Bay, James Madison, Lehigh, Lindenwood, Middle Tennessee, Missouri State, Montana State, Norfolk State, North Carolina A&T, North Carolina-Greensboro, Richmond, South Dakota State, Southeastern Louisiana, Texas Southern, UNLV, UTSA
On the bubble: Drake, George Mason, Green Bay, Missouri State, Murray State, Northern Arizona, Portland, Princeton, Purdue Ft. Wayne, St. Joseph’s, South Florida
| Team | Record | NET | SOS | Quad 1 | Quad 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
16-9 |
59 |
70 |
0-6 |
3-1 |
|
|
17-8 |
70 |
94 |
0-2 |
2-2 |
|
|
22-3 |
43 |
196 |
0-2 |
0-1 |
|
|
16-7 |
64 |
108 |
0-2 |
2-2 |
|
|
20-6 |
90 |
200 |
0-0 |
1-4 |
|
|
23-3 |
76 |
347 |
0-0 |
1-0 |
|
|
18-5 |
50 |
99 |
0-2 |
3-1 |
|
|
18-6 |
97 |
301 |
0-1 |
0-0 |
|
|
19-5 |
49 |
139 |
1-2 |
0-0 |
|
|
18-8 |
67 |
76 |
1-5 |
0-1 |
Spotlight on: South Florida
The Bulls are in an interesting position. They’re second in the American Athletic Conference behind a strong UTSA team. But they also have a head-to-head win over the Roadrunners — UTSA’s only AAC loss.
South Florida played the nation’s eighth-best nonconference strength of schedule, but evaluating it is tricky.
The Bulls took Mississippi State, a tournament team, wire-to-wire in a seven-point loss. They also played Louisville tough, but they’ve lost in games that were more competitive than the final score indicates against SEC foes Vanderbilt and South Carolina. USF also took a 41-point drubbing by TCU.
But a win over Duke is a crown jewel in their back pockets.
An argument could be made that South Florida deserves to be rewarded for playing a fierce slate, and showing it belonged throughout the season. But two conference losses could hamper them. The Bulls’ Quad 1 win bolsters their resume, especially compared to some of the less consistent power conference teams in the middle of the pack.
The Bracket Central series is part of a partnership with E*TRADE. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.
(Photos of Nebraska’s Alexis Markowski and Arizona’s Lauryn Swann: G Fiume / Getty Images and Christopher Hook / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
This post was originally published on this site be sure to check out more of their content.
