College Basketball
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Women’s college basketball power rankings: Who are NCAA Tournament title contenders?

For most of the season, the goal of these power rankings has been to combine an evaluation of a team’s performance in the moment with its resume to date. I’m often reluctant to be too reactive to any single result, erring toward a team’s total body of work.

But for the last power rankings as the final check-in before Selection Sunday, the only thing that really matters is how a team is playing right now. This week’s top 25 is a ranking of who I trust the most heading into the NCAA Tournament, without as much consideration for record or seedings.

Dropped out: Maryland (15), Alabama (17), Richmond (22), Michigan State (23), Louisville (25)

Tier 1: National title contenders

UCLA, USC, UConn, South Carolina, Texas

Ben Pickman and I had this discussion last week, and at that point, five teams seemed like realistic title contenders. That number still feels right, but UCLA replaces Notre Dame in this tier after the Bruins won the Big Ten tournament. The fear with the Bruins heading into Indianapolis was that they had no-showed their biggest game of the season, continuing a troubling trend. However, when UCLA was faced with adversity yet again against USC, the Bruins showed a newfound resolve. They bounced back from a double-digit second-half deficit and showed themselves to be the team they were in every non-USC game this season.

Meanwhile, Notre Dame is amid an ill-timed slide. Even if the Irish reached a level that arguably no other team has this season during their 19-game winning streak, they aren’t playing nearly as well anymore, and it’s hard to know how they can recreate that magic. Coach Niele Ivey took more than an hour to emerge for postgame media after Notre Dame’s loss to Florida State in the final week of the regular season. There was a similar wait for Ivey and the players after the semifinal loss to Duke on Saturday. There is something amok in the locker room, and it’s spilling onto the court.

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UConn and South Carolina continue to take care of business, with the Gamecocks executing an outstanding game plan against a big Texas frontcourt in the SEC championship. Despite the Longhorns and the Trojans losing their title games, their recent play is still strong enough to warrant inclusion in this tier.

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Tier 2: Final Four ceiling

Duke, NC State, TCU, Notre Dame

Each has had tremendous highs, but there are enough lows to be wary of their abilities to win six games in a row. In addition to Notre Dame’s struggles, Duke’s defense has been inconsistent outside the state of North Carolina; NC State has questionable depth, specifically in the frontcourt; and TCU has difficulty holding onto leads in the fourth quarter.

Still, it wouldn’t be wholly surprising to see any of these teams in Tampa. Even without a true No. 1 option, the Blue Devils have enough depth to compete against the best teams, especially when Ashlon Jackson and Reigan Richardson are shooting the ball well; their defense is also plenty disruptive, especially when ACC tournament MVP Oluchi Okananwa is on the floor. The Wolfpack have an ace scorer in Aziaha James who can take over games as well as an all-world defender in Saniya Rivers, and they were in the Final Four just last year, though James’ struggles after experiencing a hip stinger against Duke show how dependent NC State is on her offense.

TCU has a ton of experience — Agnes Emma-Nnopu is an NCAA champ, and Hailey Van Lith, Donovyn Hunter and Taylor Bigby were all in the Elite Eight in 2024, albeit with different teams. The Van Lith-Sedona Prince two-player action is among the nation’s toughest to contain. Van Lith’s ability to consistently get to the line, as she earned 18 free throws in the Big 12 semifinal and final, helps to stabilize the Horned Frogs during clutch situations.

However, other than the Irish, who are in need of serious introspection, none of these teams have beaten a Tier 1 opponent. That limits their ceiling.


How far can Georgia Amoore and the Wildcats go in March? (Jacob Kupferman / Getty Images)

Tier 3: Get out of the first weekend

LSU, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Ohio State

LSU statistically has more in common with the teams in the above category, but the injury uncertainty with Flau’Jae Johnson and Aneesah Morrow drops the Tigers. As it stands, LSU’s prospects are similar to its SEC compatriots Kentucky and Oklahoma.

Like the Tigers, the Wildcats and Sooners couldn’t compete with Texas and South Carolina but were pretty good against everyone else. There are enough bad matchups for both of them that it’s hard to imagine either cutting down nets in March. Kentucky struggles with physicality and can also get sped up, as Oklahoma did by turning its bigs over 16 times in the quarterfinals. The Sooners have serious turnover and transition defense issues, which killed them against South Carolina.

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North Carolina has its full lineup back and has the right combination of ball security, 3-point shooting and paint defense to avoid an early upset, especially since the Tar Heels earned the right to play their first two games in Chapel Hill, N.C. Ohio State is also in this group because of the expectation that the Buckeyes will get to play in Columbus.

The Big 12 quartet of Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Kansas State is hard to parse. When healthy, the Wildcats are the best of the bunch. However, without Ayoka Lee, they belong in this mishmash of teams that traded wins and losses during the conference season. The Big 12 tournament revealed that the Mountaineers have the most impressive defense but are small throughout their lineup, resulting in inherent structural disadvantages. The Cowgirls are too reliant on Stailee Heard for scoring, and the Bears are also small on the perimeter. But all of these squads are also tough and claw their way back into games. If anything, Kansas State is the most prone to lose control, but if Lee can return, the Wildcats’ upside is too high to ignore.

Tier 4: Spring an upset

Georgia Tech, Creighton, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Florida State, Michigan, Tennessee

Each has a singular strength that will make it a tough matchup, if only in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. Vanderbilt and Florida State have dominant scorers in Mikayla Blakes and Ta’Niya Latson — Blakes kept the Commodores within five points of South Carolina in the fourth quarter at the final media timeout.

Ole Miss’ defense wears teams down. The question is always whether the Rebels can stay close enough until that happens. Creighton has years of experience within its system, and that ball movement can surprise defenses. Tennessee has an unconventional full-court press to go along with its hockey subs and high volume of 3s. Georgia Tech takes the shots that defenses want to concede, which can frustrate opponents. And Michigan has freshmen with absolutely no fear, as a good Maryland team and a great USC team discovered. That’s a good quality to have at this time of year.

(Top photo of MiLaysia Fulwiley: Jacob Kupferman / Getty Images)

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