There are some big games in Ohio this week, and there’s also Steelers-Browns and Indiana at Ohio State. Our intrepid gamblers Jon Greenberg and Zac Jackson are all over the #MACtion and other football madness in the Buckeye State.
GREENBERG: (5-4 last week, 42-31 overall): Well, it’s here. The game of the year. There are two Division-I football programs in the greater Cleveland-Akron metropolitan area (no offense, Youngstown State) and they meet to decide the football pecking order for another year.
Only a true sicko would be excited for Akron–Kent State under the cold, gray skies of Northeastern Ohio, and I believe that you, my friend, have a raging case of MACtion.
One last one from this AM’s show as @AkronJackson shared a true story with @KenCarman and @SportsBoyTony ahead of tonight’s ‘Wagon Wheel Game’ between #Akron #KentState pic.twitter.com/eGzeQ9VWzC
— 92.3 The Fan (@923TheFan) November 19, 2024
I know who I like in this game, but I cede the floor to you first.
JACKSON (5-2, 39-40): It’s not just 2-8 vs. 0-10, Jon. It’s much bigger than that when 0-10 Kent State and 2-8 Akron get together.
Tonight, it’s a chance for us to cash a ticket.
Locally, it’s known as the Wagon Wheel. There’s a big wooden wagon wheel that the winning team takes home. But in the big wagon wheel of life, Kent State is historically bad. So we’re taking Akron -10.
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Kent State has lost eight of its 10 games by double digits. The Flashes did not hold a lead in any game until last week, when they went up 7-0 on Miami (Ohio). They lost, 34-7. They’ve long been down to their third quarterback, and in this column I lost an over in the Kent State-Ohio two weeks ago when that quarterback was a surprise scratch.
Should I have just been on Ohio anyway, as you were? Well, yes. This Kent State team is that bad. It’s not quite as bad as the 1998 Kent State that lost every game by double digits, but it’s totaled 7 points in two games this month and is being outscored by 23.5 points per game in MAC play.
If you take out the COVID season of 2020, when no one played a full schedule, only 21 FBS teams this century have gone winless. The last was Akron in 2019. So we’ve got both history and pageantry tonight in a true rivalry game. Kent State led last year’s game 27-10 in the fourth quarter before losing 31-27. Akron is not good either, obviously, but the Zips have competed with some of the MAC’s better teams in Bowling Green, Northern Illinois and Western Michigan.
Per gameonpaper.com, where I go every week for research, Akron is 112th nationally in offensive success rate and 104th in defensive success rate Kent State is 134th in both. Dead last. The bottom. Kent State quarterback Tommy Ulatowski has had a completion percentage of better than 50 percent in one game. One! And that was back in his first start in late September.
So maybe it gets wild, and I certainly worry about a backdoor cover. I also like Northern Illinois +2.5 at Miami (Ohio) tonight.
GREENBERG: What’s this “we’re taking” stuff? I like Kent State +10.
Because you cover the Browns, you only see the negatives. I see a chance for redemption for a team that has been embarrassed all season. On this Tuesday night in November, we are all Golden Flashes. Maybe they don’t win, but I think they cover.
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About that 1998 Kent State team … there were some players (and coaches) on that squad! Jose Davis was the quarterback. He was an Ohio Valley legend from Bellaire High School and deserved better. (College football/49ers fans might remember his younger brother Nate Davis, a star at Ball State.) Then there was receiver Eugene Baker, who had 103 catches (!) the year before but only played six games in ’98 before moving on to the NFL. James Harrison was a freshman linebacker sitting out for academic reasons. The coach was Dean Pees, who left Kent State after the 2003 season and resurfaced at some pro football team in suburban Boston.
Kent State is going to win it for Jose and Uge, James and Dean. Let’s listen to some Darius Rucker and get ready for a game for the ages.
Meanwhile, I love a good battle of directional Michigan schools on a Tuesday night. Central Michigan has lost five in a row, while Western Michigan is on a two-game slide. It’s not going to be too cold tonight in Mt. Pleasant, Mich., and afternoon rains should taper off. The Broncos have won (and covered) their last six on the road in this rivalry, so I’ll respect the streak and take Western Michigan -6.5.
I’m debating whether or not to wear an Ohio University hoodie Wednesday to Halas Hall for embattled Toledo alum Matt Eberflus’ press conference. I thought it could lighten an increasingly grim mood. But I’m not super confident in the Bobcats going into the Glass Bowl. It’s going to be cold and windy on Wednesday night in Toledo, perfect weather for two of the best defenses in the MAC. I’m going to go with the Bobcats +3. Ohio has a better rushing offense and I think they come away with a close, low-scoring win.
As for other college games, I’m going with my Big 10 team Indiana +12.5 at Ohio State. The Buckeyes have more talent, but Indiana has the better coach and quarterback, and even after their underwhelming win against Michigan, I think this will be a game. I’m debating taking Georgia -42.5 over UMass in the most ridiculously scheduled college game of the year (with apologies to Mercer-Alabama last week).
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JACKSON: Did you notice that I won my Temple over Florida Atlantic play last week — and both coaches got fired in the 48 hours following the game? When I’m on, I’m on.
I knew you’d make a Kurtis Rourke reference. Indiana-Ohio State is a compelling and important game. I’ll take under 52.5 there and under Indiana’s team total when it comes out.
Let’s wrap it up with East Carolina +3 over a North Texas team that’s so bad it fired its defensive coordinator and Colorado -2.5 over Kansas. I’m not jumping off the Deion Train now.
GREENBERG: This Thursday is your version of MACtion as you get to watch two rivals going toe to toe on a cold weekday night. I just looked on BetMGM and a whopping 94 percent of the early action is on the Steelers. The hook feels foreboding, but screw it, I’ll take the Steelers -3.5. You know what, you should probably fade my picks, given that I’m betting on all the teams that I root for.
As for the team I cover, I recommend taking the Bears +3.5 against the visiting Vikings. If you’re feeling saucy, take the money line +155. Yes, they’ve been a laughingstock of late. They’ve lost four in a row since the bye and dropped the first game in their divisional slate last week in a heartbreaker. I think they bounce back and beat Minnesota because they can’t lose ’em all. But if they do lose this one, Eberflus might as well pack up his office Monday. (He should probably start doing that anyway.)
There are a whopping nine road favorites this week, and I’ll take two more of them: Tampa Bay -5 against Tommy Meatballs and the Giants and the Ravens -3 at the Chargers in the Harbaugh Bowl.
I’ve been a Jim Harbaugh evangelist all season (How great would my professional life be if the Bears weren’t such organizational mopes and hired him?), but I think big brother John steals a win on the road this weekend. The Chargers have been awesome lately, but their four-game win streak is against the Saints (with Dennis Allen), the Browns, the Titans and the Bengals, who can only beat bad teams. Lamar Jackson is going to have a game.
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JACKSON: With bad weather expected Thursday night, the Browns-Steelers total first dipped from 41 to 39 — then sunk all the way to 36 on Monday. I see 36.5 as of this writing, and I lean under. The weather doesn’t impact my thinking as much as the situation does, although real winds in that stadium can make throwing and kicking miserable. The Steelers just don’t score, and a few days off a 395-yard passing performance that included no interceptions, I see Jameis Winston coming back to earth a bit. I look for the Steelers to win a close one — and I don’t think the Browns can get more than 14. I’ll go with under 36.5.
I’m going with Chargers +3 in the Harbaugh Bowl Monday night. Justin Herbert is slingin’ it, and the Ravens’ secondary just stinks right now.
And let’s finish with Packers -2.5 in the marquee Sunday game. The 49ers just seem disjointed and kind of miserable. Maybe a Green Bay blowout goes a long way toward putting them out of their misery.
GREENBERG: Well, if the Packers can beat the Bears, who knows what they can accomplish?
Jon Greenberg’s picks
Zac Jackson’s picks
(Photo by Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
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