The Yankees have already had a busy offseason but aren’t done yet. Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that they have had discussions with the Padres about Luis Arráez and the Dodgers about Gavin Lux, with either a possibility to take over the second base job in the Bronx. Jon Morosi of MLB Network says the Mariners, who are known to be looking for infield upgrades, have checked in on Lux as well.
For the Yanks, their infield took a couple of hits at the end of the 2024 season, with Anthony Rizzo and Gleyber Torres both hitting free agency, leaving holes at first and second base. They have since taken care of first by signing Paul Goldschmidt, but another infield upgrade would make sense.
The versatility of Jazz Chisholm Jr. gives them some flexibility. He largely played third base after being acquired last year but has plenty of experience at the keystone, meaning the Yanks could add either a second or third basemen, with Chisholm taking over whichever position is not addressed. They’ve been connected to free agent Alex Bregman and trade candidate Nolan Arenado as potential third base additions but appear to be exploring second base candidates as well.
Arráez is a logical trade candidate from San Diego’s perspective and something they have reportedly considered. RosterResource currently projects the Padres for a $210MM payroll this year, well beyond last year’s $169MM figure. While a payroll bump is reportedly possible, it’s been suggested they need to get their 2025 spending closer to 2024 levels. They are also projected to be just above the competitive balance tax and likely want to dip below that if they are going to be cutting payroll.
However, many of their players are difficult to move for contractual reasons. Many have no-trade clauses or hefty remaining guarantees or both. They also have a number of spots on the roster that could use upgrades.
Last winter, a similar set of circumstances led to the Friars parting ways with Juan Soto and Trent Grisham, sending them to the Yankees. The five players they received in return allowed them to shore up their depth in different areas while also offloading notable salary commitments.
Arráez, 28 in April could perhaps follow the same path this year. Like Soto last offseason, he is currently one year away from free agency and set to make a notable salary in his final season of club control. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Arráez to earn $14.6MM in 2025. That’s about half of what Soto was set to earn in 2024 but still a notable chunk of change for a team with budgetary constraints.
Though the projected salary is significantly lower, Arráez will still have far less appeal as a trade candidate than Soto did. Despite his elite bat-to-ball skills, Arráez is a limited player. He doesn’t take walks or add much power and is also not an asset defensively. Despite three straight batting titles, his .323/.372/.418 career batting line adds up to a wRC+ of 120, indicating his overall offensive contributions have been about 20% above average. Soto, on the other hand, has a .285/.421/.532 line and 158 wRC+ in his career.
The aforementioned defensive limitations are also something the Yankees will have to consider with Arráez. The Twins started using him more at first base in 2022 before trading him to the Marlins. With the Fish in 2023, Arráez got his largest sample of work at second and produced four Defensive Runs Saved but also -11 Outs Above Average. The Padres acquired him early in the 2024 season and only put him at the keystone for 58 innings the rest of the way.
The Yankees would have to weigh his defensive limitations against the attraction of putting his bat into the lineup, while also factoring in the money. RosterResource projects their competitive balance tax number at $303MM for this year, which is already above the fourth and final tier. As a third-time payor at that level, the Yanks face a 110% tax on any additional spending and would therefore have to pay about $30MM to employ Arráez this year. Of course, the Padres would also want something in return, though the cost savings might be their top priority at the moment.
As for Lux, it’s unclear if the 27-year-old is even available but it’s understandable why the Yanks would pick up the phone and check, as the Dodgers seem to be overloaded with middle infield options. They are planning to have Mookie Betts act as their everyday shortstop and committed themselves to that path by signing Teoscar Hernández and Michael Conforto to fill their corner outfield jobs, with guys like Andy Pages and Dalton Rushing also in the mix.
With Tommy Edman seemingly ticketed for the center field job, that leaves them with Betts at short and Lux at second, with Miguel Rojas and Chris Taylor around as bench/utility guys. They added even further depth by signing Hyeseong Kim a few days ago. Reportedly, the club still plans to use Betts and Lux as their primarily middle infielders, but perhaps the Kim signing increases the chances of the Yankees prying Lux loose.
If they succeeded, they would be getting something of an unknown quantity. Lux has had an up-and-down career thus far, but with some encouraging up arrows. Through the end of the 2021 season, he had a tepid batting line of .233/.314/.368, which led to an 86 wRC+. He took a noticeable step forward in 2022, slashing .276/.346/.399 for a 113 wRC+, but then missed all of 2023 due to a torn ACL.
His 2024 season was a step back, in a sense, though he finished strong. He hit .251/.320/.383 for a wRC+ of 100 on the season overall but with a dismal .213/.267/.295 line in the first half and a robust .304/.390/.508 showing in the second, leading to respective wRC+ marks of 60 and 152 in those halves. His batting average on balls in play jumped over 100 points from the first half to the second, so it might not be entirely sustainable, but he also improved in terms of the quality of his batted balls. Defensively, the reviews are mixed. Both DRS and OAA gave Lux a negative grade at second base in 2024 but both have him in positive territory for his career overall.
Financially, Lux is more attractive than Arráez. Thanks to an inconsistent career and missing an entire season, Lux is projected to make just $2.7MM next year, with an extra year of club control beyond that as well. Given the Yankees’ CBT situation, that would be far more attractive, but it’s also valuable to the Dodgers for the same reason. Since the Dodgers don’t seem especially motivated to let go of Lux, the Yankees would have to send something of real value the other way.
For the Mariners, their infield needs are well known. They lost Justin Turner to free agency, turned down an option for Jorge Polanco and non-tendered Josh Rojas. Apart from shortstop J.P. Crawford, little is settled on the dirt in Seattle. They have some internal options, such as Luke Raley for first base. He would need a right-handed platoon partner, which could come in the form of bringing back Turner. At second, they reportedly have some willingness to ride with Dylan Moore and Ryan Bliss until prospect Cole Young is ready to take over.
That has made it seem more likely that the club would add at third base, though bringing in a second baseman is still a consideration. The M’s were connected to Cubs’ second baseman Nico Hoerner earlier this winter, for instance, and are seemingly open to Lux as well. Lux does have some third base experience, but only six innings in the majors, so he would be a far more logical solution at the keystone.
His low projected salary is surely appealing to the Mariners, though for different reasons than the Yankees. Seattle reportedly has about $15MM to play with this offseason, a tight enough budget that Luis Castillo rumors have been swirling for quite a while. A Castillo trade would weaken the rotation but would open up some more spending capacity, perhaps to go after a player like Bregman or Arenado, though trading for Lux might be a more straightforward solution. That would allow the M’s to keep their strong rotation intact, though they would perhaps have to give the Dodgers some notable prospect capital in order to move Lux up the coast.
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