It may feel like the movie “Groundhog’s Day,” but in this case the calendar is still changing even if we’re once again sat here talking about the free agency case of Blake Snell.
One year ago, fresh off the 2023 NL Cy Young Award, Snell hit the free agent market as one of the biggest names there, only to go into spring training without a team as one of the players available that agent Scott Boras seemingly mishandled the market for. In mid-March, Snell finally agreed to terms with a team, going to the Giants on a two-year deal with an opt out after the first year. Well that year has passed and the pitcher has chosen to take that chance to opt out so we’re now back here wondering: should the Yankees go for Snell to add to the rotation?
As mentioned, Snell decided to exercise his opt out clause of his two-year, $62 million pact with the Giants, meaning that he’s expecting something bigger than that this time around. While he’s not quite coming off a Cy Young campaign this time, Snell is coming off a pretty solid season, posting a 3.12 ERA (124 ERA+), a 2.43 FIP, and a 12.5 K/9. That last one is a career high, which is remarkable considering he’s the all-time leader in that stat at 11.2. While his overall numbers for the season are an obvious step back from 2023, it should be noted that he did struggle a good amount after getting off to a late start to the season, and he became better and better as the year went on. From July on, he had a 1.23 ERA and a 1.77 FIP in 14 starts.
In a lot of ways, it was a pretty typical Blake Snell season: he was overall pretty good, but maybe didn’t do all the things you’d would hope for from someone you’d pony up to be a No. 1/1a-type starter. He only threw 104 innings on the season, although in the case of 2024, that was partially due to getting a late start to the season after a delayed signing. His 3.8 BB/9 was a positive step forward from his career rate (4.1), however that still doesn’t entirely change his reputation as a bit of a nibbler. Luis Gil is the only Yankee starter who had a worse BB/9 than that, and the whole thing with him all season was hoping that he could find a way to keep his walks under control. He did finally show somewhat of an ability to go deeper in games, as 2024 saw his first career complete game, which also happened to be a no-hitter against the Reds in August.
With all that in mind, should the Yankees take another look at Snell this year? They reportedly had some amount of interest last year, but declined to get back in on the race after his market collapsed and the Giants deal happened. While it seems unlikely that he’d get or even hold out for the $200 million deal he reportedly wanted last year, Snell will almost certainly cost a good chunk more than he got when he eventually settled with the Giants.
For example, MLB Trade Rumors predicts that he will get a five-year, $160 million deal. That would certainly be a much more palatable deal than the one Snell was reportedly after last year, but it’s still decently big. While Snell is definitely better than several of the names on the current Yankees’ pitching depth chart, said depth chart is not entirely empty. Especially if they can get the ink dry on a contract with Juan Soto, it’s unlikely that the Yankees would make a run at Snell for that projected price. Should Soto go elsewhere or Snell’s market collapse once again, then it seems possible that the Yankees try something with him. He’s obviously an excellent pitcher when on, but worries about him are far from unfounded.
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