
By the offseason, this decision felt like a 51/49 or whatever in favor of Cody Bellinger opting out of his deal with the Cubs. That was the reported “general sense,” in any case.
But the thing about 51/49 situations? Almost half the time, the 49% thing happens:
Cody Bellinger will return to the Cubs – barring a surprise trade – in 2025, retaining his $27.5 million salary for the season, and also retaining a 2026 player option worth $25 million, or a $5 million buyout.
We will have much more to say about the implications of this decisions, which will impact not only the Cubs’ roster construction but also budget. There are still theoretically considerable funds available to reshape the roster, but it is inarguable that Bellinger at $27.5 million is probably not the most efficient use of funds for this particular team.
To that end, Bellinger’s highest value to a team is probably in center field, but with the Cubs, that’s not where he’ll be starting. Instead, you have to figure at the moment that Pete Crow-Armstrong will continue to be the everyday man there, with Bellinger probably starting most days in right field, with Seiya Suzuki doing a lot more DH work (and occasionally Bellinger will play first base, spelling Michael Busch). That grouping, for what its worth, was actually pretty productive offensively in the second half.
Like I said this morning, even though it’s not the most efficient use of funds, here’s the thing: that matters only in a world where the Cubs DEFINITELY would have added a better bat for fewer dollars. I can’t say I’m 100% sure that would’ve been done, not only because I’m not sure I see the perfect bat out there (except for Juan Soto, sigh … ), but also because Bellinger could easily be a 120 wRC+ guy in 2025. The Cubs DO NEED a bat like that! So I don’t want to lose sight of that value.
Still, there are a lot of downstream impacts here, as I said, to the budget, to the prospect group, to the flexibility (of the roster/bench in-season, and of the offseason maneuverings).
Much more soon.
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