With spring training just days away, the Detroit Tigers have a 31.2% chance to make the postseason in the 2025 season, according to FanGraphs’ ZiPS projections. However, adding a certain free-agent third baseman to the roster significantly boosts the playoff odds.
The odds increase to 54.3% if the Tigers sign Alex Bregman.
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Bregman, whom the Tigers remain interested in signing, is still a free agent with less than 15 days until Tigers’ position players report to spring training in Lakeland, Florida. At least four other teams are in the mix to sign him: Houston Astros, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs and Toronto Blue Jays.
The Tigers would benefit the second-most among all 30 MLB teams from signing Bregman, with a 12.4% increase in playoff odds, according to ZiPS season simulations conducted and reported by FanGraphs senior writer Dan Szymborski.
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Only one team would benefit more: The Kansas City Royals with a 14.6% increase in playoff odds, from 39.7% without Bregman to 54.3% with Bregman. But the Royals haven’t been linked to Bregman at any point this offseason.
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Among the five interested teams, the Tigers’ 12.4% increase in 2025 postseason odds (from 31.2% to 43.6%) by signing Bregman in free agency leads the Red Sox at 10.8% (from 45.3% to 56.1%), the Astros at 8.2% (from 69.9% to 78%), the Blue Jays at 7.2% (from 40.7% to 47.9%) and the Cubs at 3.6% (from 55.8% to 59.4%).
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Here’s how Szymborski — the founder of the ZiPS projection system — ran the Bregman-related ZiPS season simulations: “I redid the simulation an additional 29 times (after the Astros), adding Bregman in turn to each team to see how his presence would change its playoff probability. It’s a bit more complex than simply replacing a team’s existing third baseman because in most cases, Bregman would cause a significant reshuffling of roster roles. I tried to keep Bregman at third base wherever possible and shift others around him, and I completely avoided implausible scenarios, such as a team signing him to be its starting catcher.”
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Here are the 10 teams that would benefit the most, with the change in playoff odds: Royals (14.6%), Tigers (12.4%), Cincinnati Reds (12.3%), San Diego Padres (12%), Arizona Diamondbacks (11.5%), Red Sox (10.8%), Philadelphia Phillies (10.4%), Seattle Mariners (10.2%), Cleveland Guardians (10.1%) and Pittsburgh Pirates (9.9%).
Maybe one of those teams — most notably the Padres, Diamondbacks, Phillies, or Mariners — surges into the Bregman sweepstakes during spring training, shaking up the market.
Bregman would certainly help any of them win more games.
Just like he would help the Tigers.
“I’d love to see Alex Bregman on the team,” Szymborski, the founder of the ZiPS projection system, told the Free Press on Dec. 23, joining the “Days of Roar” podcast. “(Jace) Jung is at third base, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he has to always play third base on the Tigers.”
Contact Evan Petzold at epetzold@freepress.com or follow him @EvanPetzold.
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