The Michigan Wolverines won again despite their reckless abandon holding onto the basketball, beating Miami (OH) on Monday while committing 18 more turnovers. Dusty May has made adjustments during the last two wins that show his disapproval of the team’s sloppiness, and expect more of the same if that continues on Thursday against an overmatched Tarleton State Texans squad.
This will be Michigan’s final tune-up against mid-major competition, as the schedule (mercifully) only included three such games this season. Tarleton State is by far the weakest opponent the Wolverines will face this year, sitting 300th on Kenpom with a whole lot of red in its profile. Michigan can play sloppy and still win by a ton, but hey, maybe stop doing that?
Tarleton State Texans (1-4) at Michigan Wolverines (3-1)
Date & Time: Thursday, Nov. 21, 8:30 p.m. ET
Location: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI
TV/Streaming: BTN
The Texans have already played three Power Five schools this season, losing by 34 to SMU, by 20 to Florida State, and by 63 to Baylor on Sunday. Unfortunately, there are just not a lot of nice things to say about the visitors — a turnover rate near the bottom of the country makes the Michigan offense look like Fort Knox, and a defensive rebounding rate also at the bottom shows it could be a whole lot worse for the Wolverines on the glass.
Despite completing just five seasons in Division I, Tarleton State has actually been to Ann Arbor before, losing 65-54 during the 2021-22 campaign. Eli Brooks played all 40 minutes and led the Wolverines with 15 points, while the Texans were within five points with under five minutes to go before Michigan finally pulled away. A repeat of that contest would be unwelcome this Thursday.
One Big Question: Will there be triple digits again?
Look, this is not expected to be competitive at all, even if Michigan’s Achilles heel continues to frustrate. Tarleton State’s 59.4 percent effective field goal rate allowed is bottom 20 across the entire country and a 41.9 percent opposing three-point rate is bad news when combined with Michigan’s own success behind the arc, which is 24th-best nationally on significant volume.
When not turning the ball over, the Wolverines have been extremely efficient, and there should be feasting against on Thursday night. Sam Walters, Tre Donaldson, and — surprisingly — Nimari Burnett have all been lights-out from deep, combining to go 26-for-48 so far this year. Opportunities to launch will be open against the Texans, especially in transition; their aforementioned turnover rate should lead to plenty of transition looks with one of these shooters camping out behind the arc.
One Thing to Watch: An issue until it is not
There are very few positives for this Tarleton State team, but one area it happens to have started well in is…forcing turnovers. Of course, most of this production has come against weaker offenses, but in this one specific department it is probably fair to say that Michigan is quite weak itself. It should be noted, though, that the Texans are better at forcing non-steal turnovers than live-ball steals, which does minimize the downside a bit.
We saw May make a hockey-style change after the sloppy start against Miami, and while he wants this team to move quickly and move the ball freely, he certainly is not pleased with the mounting turnover numbers. Post-halftime adjustments have made a difference, but there is no reason the Wolverines cannot start the game disciplined as well. Given Tarleton State’s aggressiveness on defense, it will not take long to figure out if this is going to be another one of those games. Turnovers will continue to be the Wolverines’ top talking point until they can prove they can take care of the ball.
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